2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

And I still read your posts with in a deep voice with a heavy drawl with a bit of a snicker. You’re just that partisan. If we were somehow magically transported to 1992, I would probably be reading your voice the way I currently read Torie’s or Santander’s post.

I don't believe in Bipartisanship anymore (I used to) but these Days are long gone now. Name one Bipartisan Legislation over the last 20 years that benefitted Republicans? Hint: You won't find one.
Bipartisan Legislation only benefits Democrats these Days.

[BenjiG98]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

And I still read your posts with in a deep voice with a heavy drawl with a bit of a snicker. You’re just that partisan. If we were somehow magically transported to 1992, I would probably be reading your voice the way I currently read Torie’s or Santander’s post.

I don't believe in Bipartisanship anymore (I used to) but these Days are long gone now. Name one Bipartisan Legislation over the last 20 years that benefitted Republicans? Hint: You won't find one.
Bipartisan Legislation only benefits Democrats these Days.

Bipartisan legislation isn't designed to benefit any political party. That's not how you should be viewing it. It's intended for, you know, citizens. Also, what about bills like the First Step Act? That means nothing?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ok,
wbrocks67
You are now being put officially on Ignore! Impossible to talk to you.

"Hi pot, I'm kettle"

[Person Man]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

And I still read your posts with in a deep voice with a heavy drawl with a bit of a snicker. You’re just that partisan. If we were somehow magically transported to 1992, I would probably be reading your voice the way I currently read Torie’s or Santander’s post.

I don't believe in Bipartisanship anymore (I used to) but these Days are long gone now. Name one Bipartisan Legislation over the last 20 years that benefitted Republicans? Hint: You won't find one.
Bipartisan Legislation only benefits Democrats these Days.

21st Century CURES Act? Right To Try? For people in science and health care, that was YUGE.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580616520870133760?t=QiO9qzjUc30pMpeszzU...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580616520870133760?t=QiO9qzjUc30pMpeszzU...

Hm yeah, outside GOP groups have spent $1.2M here thus far, and Dems have spent $0.

It seems they always figured they didn't have a chance here, though this is another district that may look bad in hindsight that they didn't try and invest in.

[wbrocks67]

NRCC now dumping $1.3M into CO-08. We have a real race here.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1580629530829475841

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580616520870133760?t=QiO9qzjUc30pMpeszzU...

Hm yeah, outside GOP groups have spent $1.2M here thus far, and Dems have spent $0.

It seems they always figured they didn't have a chance here, though this is another district that may look bad in hindsight that they didn't try and invest in.

Probably a top 2024 target for Dems...not hard to see an increased Dem margin in Maricopa and a subpar midterm performance in rural Latino areas of SE AZ.

[wbrocks67]

Susquehanna (in partnership with The Federalist).... find the GCB tied, 48-48

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/13/in-new-fdrlst-susquehanna-poll-voters-affirm-dobbs-oppose-big-tech-censorship/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rachel Maddow on MSNBC not 538 says it's a 51/44 map now GA, PA, NV, AZ, NH D, UT, OH, NC and WI Tossup I will still watch out for IA, IN, SD and LA but as of now it's 51/44

It's best for us to wait til 24 to win FL with Gwen Graham v Rick Scott especially since DeSantis is gonna be the R nominated take away FL from him

[GeorgiaModerate]

Susquehanna (in partnership with The Federalist).... find the GCB tied, 48-48

https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/13/in-new-fdrlst-susquehanna-poll-voters-affirm-dobbs-oppose-big-tech-censorship/

They previously had it as R+1 (44-43) in September.

[windjammer]

Improvement for the dems ?

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580616520870133760?t=QiO9qzjUc30pMpeszzU...

Hm yeah, outside GOP groups have spent $1.2M here thus far, and Dems have spent $0.

It seems they always figured they didn't have a chance here, though this is another district that may look bad in hindsight that they didn't try and invest in.

AZ-6 feels like a loss for the Dems because it is a Biden seat but in terms of odds, it is less favorable than an urban narrow Trump seat like FL-27.

If Peltola, Kaptur, Golden and Cartwright survive, the GOP would need to win 13 Biden seats to gain majority. (Biden won 226-209 in terms of CDs).

Obviously PA-1, CA-40 are unlikely flip, as is NY-1. AZ-6 probably flips red.

That said, it's the next tier where you never know what could happen. NM-2, CA-45, CO-8 are heavily minority seats

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580616520870133760?t=QiO9qzjUc30pMpeszzU...

This is one race where the GOP actually has a significant candidate quality advantage over the Dems. The triage probably makes sense despite the district's presidential lean.

[Pericles]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

[It’s so Joever]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

They are fine polls are fundamentally more flawed this year.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

They are fine polls are fundamentally more flawed this year.

How do you know? We have polls and special election results.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

They are fine polls are fundamentally more flawed this year.

How do you know? We have polls and special election results.

It's a fair expectation in America over the past six years, but there isn't necessarily any actual proof for it yet.

[windjammer]

Actually in 2018 the RCP generic congressional polls underestimated the dems

[wbrocks67]

This doesn't seem entirely surprising to me? The Dems already have a House Majority. The focus should always be to maintain all of those seats first and then use extra money to go into ones they think they can also get.

God knows the takes we'd be seeing if they were just blowing their money allover the place and not spending enough to save their own incumbents.

The article also only briefs touches on candidate fundraising, as if these candidates have no money to air ads themselves. Take Smith for example - she doesn't have DCCC/HMP support, but she raised nearly $2M last quarter. These types of things also factor into the decisions, clearly.

But hey, it's also what happens when the GOP has unlimited money from a million billionaire donors. There's only so much you can do to keep up with that.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1580897493247631360

[Devils30]

This doesn't seem entirely surprising to me? The Dems already have a House Majority. The focus should always be to maintain all of those seats first and then use extra money to go into ones they think they can also get.

God knows the takes we'd be seeing if they were just blowing their money allover the place and not spending enough to save their own incumbents.

The article also only briefs touches on candidate fundraising, as if these candidates have no money to air ads themselves. Take Smith for example - she doesn't have DCCC/HMP support, but she raised nearly $2M last quarter. These types of things also factor into the decisions, clearly.

But hey, it's also what happens when the GOP has unlimited money from a million billionaire donors. There's only so much you can do to keep up with that.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1580897493247631360

It's an interesting strategy, you can argue that the CA-27's partisan lean could be enough to flip the seat on its own. A lot depends if the Biden- downballot R voters have had it with the GOP after Dobbs.

I would ask Bloomberg for a big last minute donation as well, it could help a lot in SoCal.

Wasserman has also made a big deal about open seats- they do drain resources. That said, quite a few (RI-2, OR-5 and 6, NY-3,4, NC-1, IL-17, CA-13) went for Biden by a considerable margin that partisan lean might save them even if Ds underperform Biden by 4-5%.

[wbrocks67]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

How does this compare to 2018, wb? (If that info is available...)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

That is not good news for RGV Dems though. Also that overall number I believe is basically the 2020 result with Hispanics

[wbrocks67]

Washington Post-Ipsos poll of Latino voters finds D+27 on the GCB, 63-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/14/hispanic-voters-democrats/

Also says Dems have huge leads in Midwest, West, and Northeast, but only up by 9 in the South. Bolds well for Kelly and Masto, then.

That is not good news for RGV Dems though. Also that overall number I believe is basically the 2020 result with Hispanics

Would coincide with the numerous other evidence that this is close to a "neutral" year that is approaching 2020-ish.