2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

Yes, journalists do make up "stories" where there are none to drive engagement, and "data journalists" are not exception, but search trends have also been a relatively reliable (and more importantly, rapid) indicator of political shifts that polls don't catch—though there's still not a reliable hard quantifier, AFAIK.

Yep, you are 100% right!

Hmmmm. Watch out for sleeper upsets in the New England states for Florida's America's Governor in the 2024 general (if NH does not stop him in the first place, in favor of Florida's America's President).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crystal Ball rating changes:

CA-22: Likely D to Safe D
NJ-11: Likely D to Safe D
NC-14: Likely D to Safe D
OH-09: Tossup to Lean D (previously announced on Twitter)
OR-04: Likely D to Lean D
OR-06: Likely D to Lean D

With these most recent updates, we currently rate 187 seats as Safe Republican, 16 as Likely Republican, and 12 as Leans Republican — a total of 215 seats at least leaning Republican. We rate 158 seats as Safe Democratic, 14 as Likely Democratic, and 24 as Leans Democratic — a total of 196 seats at least leaning Democratic. There are 24 Toss-ups: Splitting them evenly between the parties would result in a 227-208 Republican House, or a 14-seat Republican gain compared to the 213 seats Republicans won in 2020.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/following-the-money-what-outside-ad-buys-tell-us-about-the-race-for-the-house/

The article also contains a lot of good info on outside spending in House races.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Certain people do like to try to build a narrative like that. Nate Cohn really strikes me as a concern troll (or maybe that's what the NYT wants right now). I saw this from him yesterday.

Yes, journalists do make up "stories" where there are none to drive engagement, and "data journalists" are not exception, but search trends have also been a relatively reliable (and more importantly, rapid) indicator of political shifts that polls don't catch—though there's still not a reliable hard quantifier, AFAIK.

This is reasonable. The rest of this board is getting disingenuous again by intentionally coming up with ridiculous examples just to show the limitations of a metric they don’t like.

Cohn also mentioned an example from a poll where the issue had dropped in importance. Or we can infer from the shift in polling. Not only have Johnson and Oz improved lately, but we’ve seen GCB’s with R’s leading in WI/PA/GA/AZ, with WI being a 5 point lead and PA a 4 point lead.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Yahoo GCB

Adults: D+5 (38-33)
RV: D+4 (45-41) … was D+5 (45-40) three weeks ago
“Definitely voting this fall”: D+3 (47-44)
“Probably/maybe voting”: D+8 (44-36)
“Those voted in all 3 national elections between 2016 and 2020”: D+3 (47-44)
“Those paying a lot of attention to the campaign”: D+1 (48-47)

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-midterm-momentum-shifts-back-to-gop-as-inflation-fears-grow-151344613.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

[wbrocks67]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

[wbrocks67]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1575559431504670720

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

Sure, but the introduction of hope for this election to be unique as far as midterms go for the incumbent party will feel like a real tease and even more devastating of a disappointment if it is nowhere close to true when the elections are finally settled. I almost would have preferred to have stayed resigned to a Republican wave as I had expected for the majority of the year before the summer.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

This is really the thing that frustrates me. I know for a fact that Dems have been overperforming everywhere for literally months now, but the logic that is beaten into us every day here is that *actually* we have to just assume the polls will be as far off as they were in 2020 or even worse, and if we do anything else, even if we still assume a mild Republican overperformance of only +1 or +2, then that means we're being completely unreasonable and are out of touch with *real America* or some s***, because in the secret reality that I can't see, the polling averages are really underestimating Republicans by like 5 points *everywhere* despite any actual evidence of that. And there's only so much of that that my brain can take before I'm just tempted to give in to the dooming even though there is a lot of clear evidence against doing so.

I don't mind people arguing that the polls are going to be catastrophically wrong, but when they do so with supreme confidence and with no real evidence to back it up - while also demanding that we ignore both the special elections and the reporting on partisan nonresponse would seem to be evidence against the polls being off - it just makes me feel like I'm losing my damn mind. Because clearly only a crazy person would believe evidence over gut feeling.

[Devils30]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

Barnes just has a real problem because it's easy to tie him to the squad and those types when he's posing for photos with an abolish ICE slogan. I really think if the Dems are to somehow get 52, it's NC now not WI.

51 and keeping the House is a possibility, WI was Biden +0.6 and NC Trump +1.3 whereas the swingiest House seats are Biden +2.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

This is really the thing that frustrates me. I know for a fact that Dems have been overperforming everywhere for literally months now, but the logic that is beaten into us every day here is that *actually* we have to just assume the polls will be as far off as they were in 2020 or even worse, and if we do anything else, even if we still assume a mild Republican overperformance of only +1 or +2, then that means we're being completely unreasonable and are out of touch with *real America* or some s***, because in the secret reality that I can't see, the polling averages are really underestimating Republicans by like 5 points *everywhere* despite any actual evidence of that. And there's only so much of that that my brain can take before I'm just tempted to give in to the dooming even though there is a lot of clear evidence against doing so.

I don't mind people arguing that the polls are going to be catastrophically wrong, but when they do so with supreme confidence and with no real evidence to back it up - while also demanding that we ignore both the special elections and the reporting on partisan nonresponse would seem to be evidence against the polls being off - it just makes me feel like I'm losing my damn mind. Because clearly only a crazy person would believe evidence over gut feeling.

Once again, I cannot relate more to how you feel here.

[HidingCommentary]

I'm not quite sure I get the recent comparisons between this year and 2014, atleast when it comes to polling. Polling was incredibly messy in 2014. We had multiple high quality polls showing both large Republican generic ballot leads and small Democratic leads. You'd get a +7 Republican poll and a +1 Democrat poll in the same week. This year though, we've seen no evidence of that.

You could argue multiple pollsters saw the writing on the wall while others did not in 2014, so if 2022 was in anyway similar to 2014, wouldn't we be seeing such a discrepancy? Outside of Trafalgar and Rasmussen that it.

[Devils30]

One thing people are forgetting is Wisconsin had a 3.8% Republican lean in 2020 that keeps getting bigger. Dems could win the popular vote by 3 to 3.5% and still be clean underdogs in Wisconsin...that margin is quite honestly pretty generous for 2022 expectations.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.

You and me both. It already was before the Dobbs decision actually managed to change things for the better, but I still can't get rid of the nagging dread that we're being misled into being optimistic again.

It especially doesn't help with today's round of polling where things actively look worse in Oregon, Pennsylvania (Senate, not so much the gubernatorial race), and Wisconsin. Which all might be explained by Republican ad blitzes going into very high gear, time shifting further away from the shock and consequences of the Dobbs decision in the summer, gas going up again in some areas, inflation remaining stubborn, and Democratic accomplishments during the summer leaving peoples' memories. I was worried that Democrats would peak too early, as always seems to be the case, and while I can't say this is happening for sure right now (perhaps it's just statistical noise) I am becoming paranoid about it.

Part of me just wants these damn elections to be over, but the other part of me dreads how they end up and would rather not know at all.

And yet this week we also got Hassan +9, Warnock +5, Kelly +6, Fetterman +7/10, and two tied NC-SEN polls. If people want to create a narrative about WI, where things actually seem to have shifted a bit, that's fine, but elsewhere there doesn't seem to be anything really going on.

Also, the idea that 2 months after Dobbs, people were still angry and voted, but 4 months - closer to the actual election - they're just like "meh" is just kind of ridiculous.

I know I'm probably being unreasonable but certain things are instigating that internal sense of dread I always have but had been quieted somewhat during the late summer. I hope you end up right about everything this year. I really do.

I mean, I get frustrated and doom too. But I'd rather be cautiously optimistic about some things than be pessimistic.

I think of the NY-19 election where close to nobody on this forum thought Pat Ryan would win. He was down in fundraising, down in the polls, everyone thought "oh Molinaro by 5" and then he came and won by nearly 3%. Not every election is like that, but we've seen concrete evidence this year is different, so the closer we get to the election, I'm supposed to believe that those Dem voters are just... going the opposite way in terms of motivation?

Hell, the fact that we're even talking about Dems and Reps being at the *SAME* intention/motivation to vote in most polls in a Biden midterm is crazy.

This is really the thing that frustrates me. I know for a fact that Dems have been overperforming everywhere for literally months now, but the logic that is beaten into us every day here is that *actually* we have to just assume the polls will be as far off as they were in 2020 or even worse, and if we do anything else, even if we still assume a mild Republican overperformance of only +1 or +2, then that means we're being completely unreasonable and are out of touch with *real America* or some s***, because in the secret reality that I can't see, the polling averages are really underestimating Republicans by like 5 points *everywhere* despite any actual evidence of that. And there's only so much of that that my brain can take before I'm just tempted to give in to the dooming even though there is a lot of clear evidence against doing so.

I don't mind people arguing that the polls are going to be catastrophically wrong, but when they do so with supreme confidence and with no real evidence to back it up - while also demanding that we ignore both the special elections and the reporting on partisan nonresponse would seem to be evidence against the polls being off - it just makes me feel like I'm losing my damn mind. Because clearly only a crazy person would believe evidence over gut feeling.

Yep. I can't help but feel sad over the "inevitable" GOP majority, despite the Washington primary, five special elections, the fact that high propensity voters vote Dem more now, and everything.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing people are forgetting is Wisconsin had a 3.8% Republican lean in 2020 that keeps getting bigger. Dems could win the popular vote by 3 to 3.5% and still be clean underdogs in Wisconsin...that margin is quite honestly pretty generous for 2022 expectations.

It's impossible to determine what the partisan lean will be this year until after the election is actually held.

[Person Man]

One thing people are forgetting is Wisconsin had a 3.8% Republican lean in 2020 that keeps getting bigger. Dems could win the popular vote by 3 to 3.5% and still be clean underdogs in Wisconsin...that margin is quite honestly pretty generous for 2022 expectations.

It's impossible to determine what the partisan lean will be this year until after the election is actually held.

Wisconsin becoming a clear Red State is about as likely as Arizona or Georgia becoming Blue States, which is, IMO, what each party needs to do to keep existing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1575838854783045632

[wbrocks67]

Looking at those toss-ups, I think Dems are in pretty good shape in a lot of them - I think either way the house majority for either party will be slim.

[wbrocks67]

GCB update-

Rasmussen - R+1 (45-44) - was R+2 last week

Susquehanna - R+1 (44-43) - In comparison, Republicans held an average 4-point lead over
Democrats (41-37) on the generic ballot based on a cumulative average of our last 5 nationwide polls.

[Devils30]

Dems only seem to have a Wisconsin problem this week. Barnes and Evers need to hit back hard on Dobbs to try to increase their white college percentage.

That said...this is a good article today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html

Remember Wisconsin at Biden +0.6 is much less than the median Biden +2.1 seat and Dems are the ones with the candidate problem in WI.

[wbrocks67]

Dems only seem to have a Wisconsin problem this week. Barnes and Evers need to hit back hard on Dobbs to try to increase their white college percentage.

That said...this is a good article today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html

Remember Wisconsin at Biden +0.6 is much less than the median Biden +2.1 seat and Dems are the ones with the candidate problem in WI.

I would disagree with this. Evers has led more polls than Michels this cycle, and Michels is the one with the more out of touch positions. Not sure how Dems have a "candidate problem" there.

[Devils30]

Dems only seem to have a Wisconsin problem this week. Barnes and Evers need to hit back hard on Dobbs to try to increase their white college percentage.

That said...this is a good article today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/upshot/midterms-gerrymandering-republicans.html

Remember Wisconsin at Biden +0.6 is much less than the median Biden +2.1 seat and Dems are the ones with the candidate problem in WI.

I would disagree with this. Evers has led more polls than Michels this cycle, and Michels is the one with the more out of touch positions. Not sure how Dems have a "candidate problem" there.

Barnes is the one I'm talking about, not Evers.