2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

[Devils30]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These small samples of competitive districts and polls of 13 swing states are usually useless.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how CNN calculates Likely Voter, since their poll shows Republicans a bit more "motivated" to vote, but their LV screen shows no pro-GOP surge - It's 46-43 among RV and then 50-47 among LV.

[2016]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977

In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

[Sir Mohamed]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

I wouldn't take it too seriously, but gives at least some orientation where things are standing. After all, elections are still decided in individual districts. That said, I'm sure your posts would look different with a R+5 GCB polling average.

[wbrocks67]

To be fair, when you have the money, you can move into more areas.

Outside GOP groups seem to have an endless stream of money, so I'm not surprised they might as well try whatever they can.

[wbrocks67]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

Every district is different though. For every RI-02 or OR-06, there's a PA-07/PA-08/ME-02, etc where Dems are keeping up in more Trump areas. You could argue the same thing the other way, where if this was a red midterm, there's no way Susan Wild would be in a Tossup race right now or that Golden or Cartwright would be close to favored.

[2016]

To be fair, when you have the money, you can move into more areas.

Outside GOP groups seem to have an endless stream of money, so I'm not surprised they might as well try whatever they can.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-gop-crush-democrats-donations-ahead-midterms-raking-73m

While the Fundraising/Spending clearly favours Democrats in the Senate, D's are getting absolutely CRUSHED in the House when it comes to those two items.

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977
In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

Republicans having a good October in SoCal? Dems cutting spending, GOP ramping it up. It would take a wave to flip Porter’s seat, but she’s not necessarily the best fit for Orange County.

[2016]

CNN/SSRS has D+3 on the generic ballot, 50-47

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

They do however have R+5, 48-43, among "competitive districts", but the MoE on that sample is nearly 6%, so not a terrific barometer.

These Pollsters really need to use their brain - Period. You are not getting an Overall D+3 Electorate when Democrats are in losing Positions in Districts like RI-2, OR-5 & OR-6, when TX-34 (Flores vs Gonzalez) is a Toss Up among other Districts.

I have given up paying attention to the GCB because it is massivly flawed.

Every district is different though. For every RI-02 or OR-06, there's a PA-07/PA-08/ME-02, etc where Dems are keeping up in more Trump areas. You could argue the same thing the other way, where if this was a red midterm, there's no way Susan Wild would be in a Tossup race right now or that Golden or Cartwright would be close to favored.

I expect most of the Toss Up Races going the Republican way in November.

Pelosi knows the House is GONE especially in light of the new Inflation Report.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977
In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

Republicans having a good October in SoCal? Dems cutting spending, GOP ramping it up. It would take a wave to flip Porter’s seat, but she’s not necessarily the best fit for Orange County.

The Dems in CA 27, 41 and 45 have decent fundraising. Remember the polls in the CA recall did underestimate Newsom quite a bit in this region. Obviously Dobbs is a wildcard here as well.

There is a well organized GOP effort to gaslight everyone into thinking a red wave is the only possible outcome of the 2022 election. Look at betting markets, for a month we've had little movement either way outside of Wisconsin and Georgia (better for both incumbents).

The NJ-7 investment suggests the GOP is a bit concerned, I would be too in a 50% college district. Both sides have plenty of money there and not sure if it will matter.

[wbrocks67]

To be fair, when you have the money, you can move into more areas.

Outside GOP groups seem to have an endless stream of money, so I'm not surprised they might as well try whatever they can.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-gop-crush-democrats-donations-ahead-midterms-raking-73m

While the Fundraising/Spending clearly favours Democrats in the Senate, D's are getting absolutely CRUSHED in the House when it comes to those two items.

This isn't true - the total GE spending in the House is actually still in favor of Ds.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1580186103331852293

Ds - $409M
Rs - $352M

However, outside spending is way more GOP. But candidate spending is more Dem.

[wbrocks67]

Public Opinion Strategies (R)

D+2 overall, 45-43.

“Election interest 10” - 48-48

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1580557083102957568

[kwabbit]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977
In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

Republicans having a good October in SoCal? Dems cutting spending, GOP ramping it up. It would take a wave to flip Porter’s seat, but she’s not necessarily the best fit for Orange County.

The Dems in CA 27, 41 and 45 have decent fundraising. Remember the polls in the CA recall did underestimate Newsom quite a bit in this region. Obviously Dobbs is a wildcard here as well.

There is a well organized GOP effort to gaslight everyone into thinking a red wave is the only possible outcome of the 2022 election. Look at betting markets, for a month we've had little movement either way outside of Wisconsin and Georgia (better for both incumbents).

The NJ-7 investment suggests the GOP is a bit concerned, I would be too in a 50% college district. Both sides have plenty of money there and not sure if it will matter.

The GOP isn’t spending millions to trick people in thinking it’s a red wave. They are spending because they think the spending will help them in those districts. Betting markets are useless and have the same lack of quality polling that we do. District polls have looked a bit better for the GOP lately and the actions of the parties reflect an understanding that the GOP is more competitive in Biden +5-10 seats than they were a few months ago.

Yeah, Malinowski is out campaigning Kean in NJ-07. Kean has snot himself in the foot by going MAGA in the primary. Polling indicates that the Dems will hold up well in this district because of the education level, but Kean would’ve won by a few points in this iteration of the district in 2020. So Malinowski needs a swing to him, which will be hard to get even if Kean has lost crossover appeal.

[2016]

Ok,
wbrocks67
You are now being put officially on Ignore! Impossible to talk to you.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977
In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

Republicans having a good October in SoCal? Dems cutting spending, GOP ramping it up. It would take a wave to flip Porter’s seat, but she’s not necessarily the best fit for Orange County.

The Dems in CA 27, 41 and 45 have decent fundraising. Remember the polls in the CA recall did underestimate Newsom quite a bit in this region. Obviously Dobbs is a wildcard here as well.

There is a well organized GOP effort to gaslight everyone into thinking a red wave is the only possible outcome of the 2022 election. Look at betting markets, for a month we've had little movement either way outside of Wisconsin and Georgia (better for both incumbents).

The NJ-7 investment suggests the GOP is a bit concerned, I would be too in a 50% college district. Both sides have plenty of money there and not sure if it will matter.

The GOP isn’t spending millions to trick people in thinking it’s a red wave. They are spending because they think the spending will help them in those districts. Betting markets are useless and have the same lack of quality polling that we do. District polls have looked a bit better for the GOP lately and the actions of the parties reflect an understanding that the GOP is more competitive in Biden +5-10 seats than they were a few months ago.

Yeah, Malinowski is out campaigning Kean in NJ-07. Kean has snot himself in the foot by going MAGA in the primary. Polling indicates that the Dems will hold up well in this district because of the education level, but Kean would’ve won by a few points in this iteration of the district in 2020. So Malinowski needs a swing to him, which will be hard to get even if Kean has lost crossover appeal.

Only MAGA can win, other Republicans are RINOS and frauds.

[wbrocks67]

Ok,
wbrocks67
You are now being put officially on Ignore! Impossible to talk to you.

all I did was provide factual numbers? lol okay

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1580543260883582977
In addition to Porter, the other double-digit Biden seats the CLF is targeting with these buys are CA-49 (Levin), CT-05 (Hayes), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-13 (OPEN, Duarte R nominee), TX-34 (Flores/Gonzalez), and RI-02 (OPEN, Fung R nominee).

Republicans having a good October in SoCal? Dems cutting spending, GOP ramping it up. It would take a wave to flip Porter’s seat, but she’s not necessarily the best fit for Orange County.

The Dems in CA 27, 41 and 45 have decent fundraising. Remember the polls in the CA recall did underestimate Newsom quite a bit in this region. Obviously Dobbs is a wildcard here as well.

There is a well organized GOP effort to gaslight everyone into thinking a red wave is the only possible outcome of the 2022 election. Look at betting markets, for a month we've had little movement either way outside of Wisconsin and Georgia (better for both incumbents).

The NJ-7 investment suggests the GOP is a bit concerned, I would be too in a 50% college district. Both sides have plenty of money there and not sure if it will matter.

The GOP isn’t spending millions to trick people in thinking it’s a red wave. They are spending because they think the spending will help them in those districts. Betting markets are useless and have the same lack of quality polling that we do. District polls have looked a bit better for the GOP lately and the actions of the parties reflect an understanding that the GOP is more competitive in Biden +5-10 seats than they were a few months ago.

Yeah, Malinowski is out campaigning Kean in NJ-07. Kean has snot himself in the foot by going MAGA in the primary. Polling indicates that the Dems will hold up well in this district because of the education level, but Kean would’ve won by a few points in this iteration of the district in 2020. So Malinowski needs a swing to him, which will be hard to get even if Kean has lost crossover appeal.

Is this really true though? We've been talking about places like RI-02, OR-06, etc. for months now. There were polls in the summer time that showed these races close. I don't think anything's really changed on that front

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs tracker update

D+3, 49-46

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022_lv?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok,
wbrocks67
You are now being put officially on Ignore! Impossible to talk to you.

all I did was provide factual numbers? lol okay

I'd consider it a benefit.

[2016]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

[Person Man]

If down ballot Republicans are really improving in blue states, Then the only two possible explanations or predictions that I have are that either California’s becoming like Texas where it’s going to be closer or that if Biden loses in 2024 all of these new Republicans are sitting ducks in 26. The former is interesting if liberal states become more competitive.

 It would mean that if Democrats are still overall ahead, they are probably really ahead. Republicans can no longer count on a 2 million vote pad in order to win the electoral college by 50 votes.

Come to think of it, depending on what happens this year, it might actually be a good strategic maneuver more than usual to cede 2024. It’s not like they will have the votes for anything beyond reconciliation and they won everything they want outside of those that put them at extreme risk when they lose.

[Person Man]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

And I still read your posts with in a deep voice with a heavy drawl with a bit of a snicker. You’re just that partisan. If we were somehow magically transported to 1992, I would probably be reading your voice the way I currently read Torie’s or Santander’s post.

[kwabbit]

Let thank sink in:
The Field Dates for the CNN/SSRS Poll is September 3 to October 5

A ONE-MONTH POLL, give me a break!

And I still read your posts with in a deep voice with a heavy drawl with a bit of a snicker. You’re just that partisan. If we were somehow magically transported to 1992, I would probably be reading your voice the way I currently read Torie’s or Santander’s post.

He spells favored as favoured so he might be not be American.