NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I like Beasley but I worry about her chances in the general. She lost a statewide race in 2020, which will almost certainly be a better environment for Dems than 2022. This races starts out at Lean R anyway, but I think Jackson would be a better candidate, electorally speaking.

Didn't she massively outperform Biden & all of the other Democratic candidates sans Cooper? I mean, if she only lost by 401 votes, then I can only imagine the impact that running a Black candidate at the top of a year's ticket (in this case, for Senate) would potentially have on juicing Black turnout & pushing her over-the-line.

No, Stein also won and Beasley was expected to win her race without too much difficulty going into the election.

[Frenchrepublican]

I like Beasley but I worry about her chances in the general. She lost a statewide race in 2020, which will almost certainly be a better environment for Dems than 2022. This races starts out at Lean R anyway, but I think Jackson would be a better candidate, electorally speaking.

Didn't she massively outperform Biden& all of the other Democratic candidates sans Cooper? I mean, if she only lost by 401 votes, then I can only imagine the impact that running a Black candidate at the top of a year's ticket (in this case, for Senate) would potentially have on juicing Black turnout & pushing her over-the-line.

No, not really, Biden lost NC by 1, she was an incumbent so a 1 point overperformance is not great.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden lost NC due to fact he had Cal CUNNINGHAM on the ballot, it's a completely different yr, French Republican

[Not Me, Us]

Does Josh Stein have any interest in this race? I assume not, since he didn't run in 2020. He's probably the strongest non-Cooper candidate though.

[Roll Roons]

FWIW, Tillis' pollster thinks Cunningham would have won without the affair:
https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1375085942839652360

[SnowLabrador]

FWIW, Tillis' pollster thinks Cunningham would have won without the affair:
https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1375085942839652360

Even with the affair, I think Cunningham would have won had Ginsburg not died when she did.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Does Josh Stein have any interest in this race? I assume not, since he didn't run in 2020. He's probably the strongest non-Cooper candidate though.

By most accounts, he's set on becoming Cooper's successor in the governor's mansion. Whether what remains of the state's downballot quirks will persist until then appears up in the air this far out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jackson or Beasley are gonna win, this isn't a 279 race, with Rs struggling in OH and FL we are expanding the battleground

[VAR]

Lara Trump has joined Fox News as a contributor on Fox & Friends. 

[Roll Roons]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/29/tillis-surgery-prostate-cancert-478325

Tillis was apparently diagnosed with cancer, although they caught it early so he'll hopefully be fine soon.

[TheFonz]

Jackson or Beasley are gonna win, this isn't a 279 race, with Rs struggling in OH and FL we are expanding the battleground

Republicans are not struggling in OH or FL...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jackson or Beasley are gonna win, this isn't a 279 race, with Rs struggling in OH and FL we are expanding the battleground

Republicans are not struggling in OH or FL...

Look at the polls yes they are but DeSantis isn't gonna be Prez anyway he has to win PA, MI and WI which have Baldwin, Stabenow and Casey entrenched INCUMBENTs up not FL

We don't have to win OH and FL but Rs has to win WI, MI and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jackson or Beasley are gonna win, this isn't a 279 race, with Rs struggling in OH and FL we are expanding the battleground

Republicans are not struggling in OH or FL...

The Predictions aren't gonna be up for a yr, you can make your map based on who you think is gonna win and I will make make my map on how I see, that's the way it's always done

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/29/tillis-surgery-prostate-cancert-478325

Tillis was apparently diagnosed with cancer, although they caught it early so he'll hopefully be fine soon.

Not a fan of Tillis, but I'm not gonna celebrate this.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/29/tillis-surgery-prostate-cancert-478325

Tillis was apparently diagnosed with cancer, although they caught it early so he'll hopefully be fine soon.

So ironic how his words encouraging routine care & early detection don't match his actions of devoting his time in office to making sure that only people - even cancer survivors - who can afford health-care access deserve that access.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I like how users keep pushing this Ron DeSANTIS, D's are pushing OH and NC with the exception of GA, and Ron DeSantis has to win the big three WI, MI and PA.  He isn't gonna be Prez no ways, wave insurance or not

[Heebie Jeebie]

Whatever happened to Janet Cowell, the former state Treasurer?  I think she'd be a great candidate if she wanted to try a comeback.

Also, I seem to recall reading some time back that Heath Shuler was thinking of making a comeback.  He could actually be a pretty good candidate, if not in 2022 then maybe in 2026.

[S019]

Budd rumored to enter:

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1380276491041312770


Same source says McCrory likely to enter and Trump not likely to enter:

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1380278156012183558

[Roll Roons]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

[S019]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

It's not like the Democratic primary is any better with Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, and Cheri Beasley all running against each other.

[Roll Roons]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

It's not like the Democratic primary is any better with Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, and Cheri Beasley all running against each other.

Jackson still feels like more of a clear frontrunner there. Though NC's primary is relatively early, so whoever wins the GOP nomination will have plenty of time to recover.

[Storr]

Man, the GOP primary is really shaping up to be a mess.

It's not like the Democratic primary is any better with Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, and Cheri Beasley all running against each other.

I didn't think the Democratic primary would be competitive until Cheri Beasley entered. Erica Smith just lost to the most bland "Southern white guy Democrat" candidate possible in the 2020 primary. Beasley is overqualified for the Senate (Chief state supreme court justice to the Senate is pretty uncommon, no?) and despite losing her election in 2020, it was by literally 401 votes, which makes the loss hard to hold against her.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jackson and RYAN will win

Rs aren't gonna duplicate their numbers like Trump did, that's why they are pushing voter suppression laws and it's VBM not same day voting

Trump overperformed before the Insurrectionists

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hope Lara Trump doesn't end up running. If a more generic Republican than her wins instead, as is near-inevitable, the disappointment won't be quite as overbearing.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

NC might be the only state with as much of a clown car GOP Senate primary as Pennsylvania.