Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Although Youngkin is in the lead, I've been noticing the gap between them in total votes is slowly shrinking. Bear in mind, 18% of the vote still needs to be counted.  

[Chips]

McAuliffe needs roughly two-thirds of the remaining votes to make up the gap according to Fox.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Although Youngkin is in the lead, I've been noticing the gap between them in total votes is slowly shrinking. Bear in mind, 18% of the vote still needs to be counted. 

Yeah, I have 2006 in mind right now. Reportedly Allen led the count for the vast portion of the night, but Webb won a very narrow plurality with the last 10% and especially the last 5% of the vote, which came from very blue areas.

[BigSerg]

Ok, wait: MSNBC says that there's still a significant number of absentee votes out that have yet to be counted & could have an impact on the race, but all of the media organizations have already called it. It can't possibly flip back... right?

Hmm, I suppose that is possible. I just called it, but the latest batch of votes noticably shrunk Youngkin's lead by 30,000 votes. If the rest of votes are just as pro-T-mac then he wins.
Could it happen? Yes. Am I certain enough in Youngkin winning to not uncall the race? Yes.

It's not enough, literally he would have to win by +90%, spoiler: it's not happening.

[StateBoiler]

I say this as a democrat.

Democrats have to run on Kitchen table issues. Plain and simple.

Does the national Democratic Party even know what a kitchen table is? I'm being flippant, but half-serious for a talking point. I look where I am and the Democrats are so literally beyond dead. They might as well be Curtis Sliwa trying to win an election tonight.

[SteveRogers]

Ok, wait: MSNBC says that there's still a significant number of absentee votes out that have yet to be counted & could have an impact on the race, but all of the media organizations have already called it. It can't possibly flip back... right?

Most media organizations don’t seem to have called it yet…

[Figueira]

I predicted 2020 GA Dem Sweep, 2021 VA Flip, and 2021 NJ Flip, I'm the betting odds God of Atlas.

AMA.

Did you predict all of those at the same time? If not, that's not that impressive (and NJ is still wrong).

[Del Tachi]

Youngkin now has more votes than Northam 2017

[BigSerg]

Stop trolling and accept defeat
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455717563086872578?s=20

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Stop trolling and accept defeat
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455717563086872578?s=20

Who are you talking to?

[brucejoel99]

Ok, wait: MSNBC says that there's still a significant number of absentee votes out that have yet to be counted & could have an impact on the race, but all of the media organizations have already called it. It can't possibly flip back... right?

Most media organizations don’t seem to have called it yet…

I was admittedly under the presumption - based on the attitude of this forum - that the networks had called it post-Wasserman, but I appear to have been mistaken, so my apologies.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455716167109206016?s=20

[Mr. Smith]

Although Youngkin is in the lead, I've been noticing the gap between them in total votes is slowly shrinking. Bear in mind, 18% of the vote still needs to be counted. 

Yeah, I have 2006 in mind right now. Reportedly Allen led the count for the vast portion of the night, but Webb won a very narrow plurality with the last 10% and especially the last 5% of the vote, which came from very blue areas.

This what happened with Herring the first time, except he needed a recount.

[rbt48]

The VA AG race is probably the most in-doubt race at this point (87% reporting).

[Senator Spark]

Youngkin probably is the next Governor. I've likely retired from political forecasting at this point.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Unrelated but the 5 cheese tortellini with garlic & herb sauce that I had for dinner was amazing.

[TheReckoning]

The fact that a single governors election has garnered over 5000 posts is peak Atlas.

[tmthforu94]

Some have written off Virginia as a safe Dem state; I saw some suggestions last week that Youngkin winning would be reminiscent of Republicans winning Governorships in MA, MD, VT, etc. I think the fact that you're seeing down-ballot Republicans doing so well tonight, now having a strong probability of flipping the House, suggests otherwise. Especially when you look at HD-75.

[Thunder98]

Fairfax County is all in.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Although Youngkin is in the lead, I've been noticing the gap between them in total votes is slowly shrinking. Bear in mind, 18% of the vote still needs to be counted. 

Yeah, I have 2006 in mind right now. Reportedly Allen led the count for the vast portion of the night, but Webb won a very narrow plurality with the last 10% and especially the last 5% of the vote, which came from very blue areas.

This what happened with Herring the first time, except he needed a recount.

Interesting.
I do distinctly remember the 2013 Attorney General election going to a recount...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1455718128030306308?s=20

[Associate Justice PiT]

The VA AG race is probably the most in-doubt race at this point (87% reporting).

     The difference is really tiny, though. Just 16,389 votes separately the Republican with the least votes (Miyares) from the one with the most (Youngkin). I would have thought undervotes alone would make the gap bigger than that.

[Chips]

Fairfax County is all in.

Where you see that at?

[Thunder98]

Fairfax County is all in.

Where you see that at?

Fox

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fairfax County is all in.

Where you see that at?

Presumably WA Post?