Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[I’m not Stu]

Youngkin would have lost a primary.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm afraid to say this country's demise is occurring sooner than I thought.

if the embodiment of "generic R" beating a guy running a really bad campaign while the president's approval ratings are 8 points underwater is a sign of the country's demise it was already doomed

A solidly blue state that hadn't elected a Republican statewide in 12 years does so bEcAuSe cRiTiCaL rAcE tHeOrY!!!!

It's proof to me that this country is so easily distracted by pointless wedge issues and conned into voting for economic policies that directly hurt them. By the end of my lifetime most of America is going to resemble Flint, Michigan save for its wealthiest areas both because of how easily blinded white people are by their own bigotry but also the structural advantage the GOP has thanks to polarization and rural red states and state legislatures.

We're going to have West Virginia type poverty in all areas, rural, suburban, and urban with hyperinflation and wages that never grow to keep up with it. Any time people start trying to vote to change it, along will come another minority group that needs to be defecated on, or masks, or vaccines, or abortion, or critical race theory, or whatever Fox News comes up with this week.

This country is burning to the ground and tonight's result shows that now even people who normally vote for Democrats are throwing gasoline on it.

[NOVA Green]

Larry Sabato is on TV basically blaming Manchin/Sinema for the outcome, arguing that if the BBB bills had passed, T-Mac would have had something to run on and "sell" but was left with nothing. Seems like a reasonable analysis.

Personally I disagree with the analysis, but saw him on MSNBC when the first wave of exit polls was coming in and he was making a similar point.

So at least he is consistent, but IMHO that's more of a "Beltway take" than what actual voters were thinking when they went to the polls.

[DrScholl]

Something democrats don’t get is : Responding to the CRT debate by saying but it isn’t taught in public schools is ok if it isn’t then why are you guys getting so worked up by opposing candidates saying they will ban it . If it isn’t being taught than that ban shouldn’t change a thing right .

What is there to ban?   You want to erase certain history lessons or something?  It's not like CRT is a uniform textualized program outside of maybe law school. 

Outlaw any claim that racial "privilege" is true

Only a person with privilege would demand to "outlaw" such a thing. Whether you believe it or not, you are privileged. In some ways lots of people are. In comparison to third world country citizens even the most poverty stricken American is privileged. It's not a bad thing to acknowledge the truth. A white person is far more privileged than those of other races, period.

[Vespucci]

In retrospect I think the fact that Virginia Republicans had a quick convention and not a drawn-out primary was tremendously helpful for them.

Youngkin may not have won a primary. If he had, it would have been longer than the campaign before the convention, and almost certainly would have forced him to take more pro-Trump positions. That would go for whoever would have won.

That was a smart move by the GOP. Amanda Chase might have won a primary, and she would almost certainly be losing.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In retrospect I think the fact that Virginia Republicans had a quick convention and not a drawn-out primary was tremendously helpful for them.

Youngkin may not have won a primary. If he had, it would have been longer than the campaign before the convention, and almost certainly would have forced him to take more pro-Trump positions. That would go for whoever would have won.

Why did the GOP even skip the primaries in first place?

[CityByTheValley]

I still think this will mean nothing for 2024 if Trump is still on the ticket, suburbans will still not want to vote for him.

Anecdotally speaking as long as we get the SALT cap repealed in this bill as Menendez indicates there’s no chance we’ll vote for someone that raised our taxes. Republicans need to act less unhinged socially and then we might consider voting for them, or all they’ll get is the trashy WWC demographic.

[Horus]

Rather embarrassing that NYT and CNN haven't called this yet.

[LabourJersey]

In retrospect I think the fact that Virginia Republicans had a quick convention and not a drawn-out primary was tremendously helpful for them.

Youngkin may not have won a primary. If he had, it would have been longer than the campaign before the convention, and almost certainly would have forced him to take more pro-Trump positions. That would go for whoever would have won.

Why did the GOP even skip the primaries in first place?

Because they were worried a crazy person like Amanda Chase would win. A valid fear, honestly.

[Vespucci]

I'm afraid to say this country's demise is occurring sooner than I thought.

if the embodiment of "generic R" beating a guy running a really bad campaign while the president's approval ratings are 8 points underwater is a sign of the country's demise it was already doomed

A solidly blue state that hadn't elected a Republican statewide in 12 years does so bEcAuSe cRiTiCaL rAcE tHeOrY!!!!

It's proof to me that this country is so easily distracted by pointless wedge issues and conned into voting for economic policies that directly hurt them. By the end of my lifetime most of America is going to resemble Flint, Michigan save for its wealthiest areas both because of how easily blinded white people are by their own bigotry but also the structural advantage the GOP has thanks to polarization and rural red states and state legislatures.

We're going to have West Virginia type poverty in all areas, rural, suburban, and urban with hyperinflation and wages that never grow to keep up with it. Any time people start trying to vote to change it, along will come another minority group that needs to be defecated on, or masks, or vaccines, or abortion, or critical race theory, or whatever Fox News comes up with this week.

This country is burning to the ground and tonight's result shows that now even people who normally vote for Democrats are throwing gasoline on it.

Youngkin is running well among pretty much every ethnic group, not just whites. In fact the only places he's running behind his benchmarks are very white.

[LabourJersey]

Larry Sabato is on TV basically blaming Manchin/Sinema for the outcome, arguing that if the BBB bills had passed, T-Mac would have had something to run on and "sell" but was left with nothing. Seems like a reasonable analysis.

Personally I disagree with the analysis, but saw him on MSNBC when the first wave of exit polls was coming in and he was making a similar point.

So at least he is consistent, but IMHO that's more of a "Beltway take" than what actual voters were thinking when they went to the polls.

The machinations in Washington aren't something that people care about, but voters *Do* care about their elected officials getting things done.

Manchin and Sinema's stonewalling made the Biden administration look ineffective. That almost is something that voters noted and disliked.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Probably not as decisive in this race as the media is desperate to make it look, but Democrats need to come up with a better rebuttal to the CRT panic.

"It's not being taught in public schools, you f'ing morons" sounds like a good response to me. At this point it's time to just start saying that Republicans are manufacturing lies to create panic.

This is honestly the right answer for everything. Republicans make s[inks]t up, and Democrats - being the party of pansies in the modern era - issue a press release or make some milquetoast statement along the lines of "this is not my position".

The world doesn't work this way anymore. Anytime the GOP throws some asinine, false claim at a Democratic candidate, said candidate needs to have a shock-and-awe moment in front of every camera in the universe for maximum saturation. Saying something like "Nobody supports that and the people saying so are f[inks]ing c[inks]k-sucking dips[inks]ts" will make headline news on a national level, saturate social media and actually take control of the narrative in every situation. But as long as the GOP gets away with this crap, they'll keep doing it (because it works).

The "Democrats say retard" challenge.

You have to retard the spark advance in order to start a Ford Model T before advancing the timing once the engine has started. See, it’s possible!

[jojoju1998]

Dems need to give up on wokeness, get stricter on Manchin/Sinema so that we can actually get legislative accomplishments, and improve their messaging. It still baffles me how Dem politicians are so out of touch that they’re still under the impression that saying the vastly unpopular term “Latinx” is beneficial for them electorally. They should have caught onto this a year ago. They fact that they’re still saying it shows how out of touch they are

Look, I know that I'm out of touch and live under a rock, but I do think Democrats should avoid woke language (Matt Y. & David Shor's popularism, etc., etc.), but I also think we have? I just can't think of an example of someone who won a Dem primary recently being exceedingly woke in messaging. Last I checked we aren't choosing Elizabeth Warren and Maya Wiley to lead us into general elections. Where is this happening? Who is doing it? I just don't know how we're supposed to *stop* doing it if our leaders aren't doing it in the first place. I'm asking this as a genuine practical question. If wokeness emanates from "the cultural left, in aggregate"--rather than Democratic top brass--how is it supposed to be eliminated on the campaign trail?

The issue is the cultural left is what the backlash is against, especially against the fact that nearly every institution has seemingly embraced them .

If you think you're cutlurally conservative, you haven't met my family yet.

[OSR stands with Israel]

 Adams not underperforming Biden 2020 by much at all  is pretty telling .

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Holy crap Lynchburg! Biden narrowly won this county last year. Almost 86% of the vote is in.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

PSOL is a top 10 poster on this blog, and is correct here.

Agreed, but dawg i thought you were supposed to be socialist what happened to your avatar

I am fine with any avatar color and have cycled through all of them. Except libertarian. That is unforgivable.

Based

[NOVA Green]

Well I don’t think TMac is winning by 6 anymore lol

Cue a Michael Jackson Moonwalk style video and dance move....   

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I would be curious to see if Glenn's victory is thanks to Asian Americans. As a Asian American myself, especially a Vietnamese American, I am one of the few democrat Asian Americans that I know of.

In the more working class Asian communities, it's actually cultural conservativism. Obedience, respect your parents, working hard. Perhaps Glenn played into that.

It's interesting: most of the Republican Indian-Americans that I've encountered come from upper-class suburban families (I'm an example of one).  By contrast, the working-class Indian-Americans I know skew heavily Democratic.  

2020 may have changed that cause while this is anecdotel the working class family members I have were much more likely to vote Trump than the more upper middle class types even though they used to be much more solidly democratic

Nope, this was largely the case in 2020 (at least in my own social experiences) -- though I understand that this runs counter-intuitive to wholesale 2020 trends.  

As a whole, though, we're still a relatively Democratic-voting group.  I've always found this interesting considering the stereotype of cultural conservatism that surrounds us.  Hell, I still can't wear leggings-as-pants around my grandma haha. 

I will say that the (mostly age 18-35 and US-raised) Indian Americans on Atlas seem more right-wing than the ones I knew growing up and from college.

Indian Americans are definitely the most "white-adjacent" major Asian group. It makes total sense that they (would if they don't already) vote like Jewish Americans given the broad similarities on cultural values and class/occupational profile.

Indians are also the largest single Asian group in VA, so if there was a significant R swing among Asian American voters we should expect major R shifts in Indian-heavy areas, along with Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Filipino-heavy areas in NoVA and maybe Hampton Roads + Richmond.

[JustinSmith]

I think that any claim that a candidate won or lost because of one single thing is, in most cases, going to be very wrong. Populations of millions of people are pretty complex structures and it's highly unlikely that everyone has the same motivations for why they vote the way they do.

It's certainly looking like my prediction evaluation for this election is going to be well into what I've defined as the "unacceptable" category. Which I means I should have plenty of meat to study for improving the model. It's easy to see what happened on a basic level. Although the model favored recent polls more than older polls, the sheer number of polls that had been done prior to the sudden shift still managed to outweigh the newer ones.

I've felt for some time that an election prediction model is valuable only if it can offer an accurate prediction far in advance of the election. An accurate same-day prediction isn't really that useful, except perhaps for the last minute gamblers. The real puzzle to solve is how to anticipate a shift like the one we saw for VA. A nobel prize for the prediction model-maker who can devise the algorithm capable of predicting the October VA shift back in June.

In that regard, there's an interesting question to consider: Did the shift towards the end of the polling cycle reflect voters changing their minds about who they would vote for, or did it reflect the early polls being inaccurate regarding how voters at that time planned to vote? It feels like an actual change, but I'm not really sure that any actual data exists to answer this question definitively.

[Big Abraham]

Murphy might actually be in danger in NJ.

50-49 right now, though I expect that number to change.

[StateBoiler]

CNN not picked up talking about it yet, but in New Jersey Ciattarelli has cut the margin down to Murphy to 28k at 25% in. It was at 62k.

[Horus]

Holy crap Lynchburg! Biden narrowly won this county last year. Almost 86% of the vote is in.

Liberty University seems like Biden-Youngkin central. Trump's policies were fine to them but he said bad unchristian things, and that's worse than any policy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would be curious to see if Glenn's victory is thanks to Asian Americans. As a Asian American myself, especially a Vietnamese American, I am one of the few democrat Asian Americans that I know of.

In the more working class Asian communities, it's actually cultural conservativism. Obedience, respect your parents, working hard. Perhaps Glenn played into that.

It's interesting: most of the Republican Indian-Americans that I've encountered come from upper-class suburban families (I'm an example of one).  By contrast, the working-class Indian-Americans I know skew heavily Democratic.  

2020 may have changed that cause while this is anecdotel the working class family members I have were much more likely to vote Trump than the more upper middle class types even though they used to be much more solidly democratic

Nope, this was largely the case in 2020 (at least in my own social experiences) -- though I understand that this runs counter-intuitive to wholesale 2020 trends.  

As a whole, though, we're still a relatively Democratic-voting group.  I've always found this interesting considering the stereotype of cultural conservatism that surrounds us.  Hell, I still can't wear leggings-as-pants around my grandma haha. 

I will say that the (mostly age 18-35 and US-raised) Indian Americans on Atlas seem more right-wing than the ones I knew growing up and from college.

Indian Americans are definitely the most "white-adjacent" major Asian group. It makes total sense that they (would if they don't already) vote like Jewish Americans given the broad similarities on cultural values and class/occupational profile.

Indians are also the largest single Asian group in VA, so if there was a significant R swing among Asian American voters we should expect major R shifts in Indian-heavy areas, along with Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, and Filipino-heavy areas in NoVA and maybe Hampton Roads + Richmond.

A huge caveat might be is that earlier exit polls on Indian voters pre 2016 might not be accurate given how small the sample size used to be. So the swing might not be anywhere near as big as it seems like.

[Alben Barkley]

1 year to course correct.

1 year.

Otherwise, well, I know some of y'all are too young to really remember 2010. Let me just say it is PAIN.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455709997887787009?s=20

[South Dakota Democrat]

Remember the just a few hours ago McAuliffe was secure because of 'muh turnout'?

Remember when you said you'd leave for a year?