Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1350243979045072897

All counties have now certified, and the state is likely to do so on Tuesday. Ossoff and Warnock will likely be sworn in Wednesday morning.

The question is, do they want to be sworn in by Pence or Harris? I would assume that they would just wait until after the inauguration is over so Harris swears them in which would flip the chamber in one fell swoop (and I want to watch exactly that unfold on C-SPAN).

It's not a matter of who they want, it's a matter of when the first Senate reconvening after their certification is. If - as expected - it's after the inauguration, then it'll be Harris.

If the Senate doesn't receive the certificates until after 12:00 ET on 1/20 then yes, they will have no choice but have Harris swear them in, but I would assume that the Senate would get them before noon. Then, it is just a matter of when Ossoff and Warnock show up on the Senate floor...

No, that's still not exactly how it works. Even once the Senate has received the certificates, they still have to wait for the Senate to actually be in session before they can be sworn in. If the Senate gets the certificates at 6am on Wednesday but they're not in session 'til, say, 1pm, then they can't be sworn in 'til 1pm.

Of course...but I am operating under the assumption that the Senate will be in session both in the AM and PM on January 20.

Not necessarily the correct assumption to be operating under: in past inaugural years, the Senate hasn't convened 'til after those portions of the ceremonies which are held at the Capital have concluded. Now, the impeachment trial might change that, but it's not as if they're really gonna have any pending business to deal with in the morning anyway since Biden won't have taken office (& thus formally sent in any nominations) yet. Yes, they'll have the swearing-ins, but those can just as easily be done when they convene for the trial in the afternoon.

[Adam Griffin]

Also interesting to note that the 538 polling averages were right on the money in estimating Warnock's margin, but slightly overestimated Ossoff (they put him at +1.8 ). Probably too small to warrant serious analysis, but I do half-wonder what made the dropoff between the two candidates wider than expected. Shy Enlightened Suburban Ticket-Splitter Effect?

I think there are two main dynamics at play that contributed to this:

The first is in line with your "shy enlightened suburban ticket splitter effect" - something I've already written about last week. This effect of course was confined to white, high-income, highly-educated areas that were much more Republican just a few short years ago; even though Perdue saw his biggest gains relative to November in those places, the gap between Warnock and Ossoff was also largest there.


The second comes down to a simple yet shifting phenomenon that has been observed to varying degrees in multiple elections dating back to at least 2008: there are more black voters who are willing to vote for a black Democrat (but not a white Democrat) than there are white voters who are willing to vote for a white Democrat (but not a black Democrat) as a percentage of their respective electorates.

However and frankly, I think the turnout differential in the runoff flipped the ratio, as even November's election showed that Democrats had more to lose than gain by running, say, a black female than a white male; I can't emphasize this enough, but relative to #trends, expectations and where resources were/were not allocated in '20, Biden won GA based on his substantially better and unexpected performance with white rural voters in the northern half of the state relative to 2018's numbers (this alone netted him ~25k votes in the margin relative to/harmonized with Abrams' performance). We also saw this phenomenon in 2018: Barrow had a closer margin than Abrams, with him doing considerably better in whiter rural areas while drop-off and support was considerably worse in blacker urban areas.

I imagine it wasn't just higher black turnout in the runoff that offset this, but higher black turnout of the right type of voter; just like with other non-white groups, I'm willing to bet a lot of lower-info black Trump '20 voters simply stayed home for the runoff.


In the runoff electorate, probably 4-5% of black voters backed Warnock but not Ossoff, while 1-2% of white voters backed Ossoff but not Warnock. In a normal election, however, this discrepancy isn't as big (and as mentioned, even in 2018 and 2020, was still reversed). Combined with the low-energy white bipartisan suburbrons who wanted to seem racially progressive but didn't want unified government, and the margin difference can more or less be explained (especially when factoring in that Perdue was better-liked across racial lines than Loeffler and also had the benefit of actual incumbency; also accounts for the slight-to-non-existent gap in non-black, non-suburban parts of the state between Warnock and Ossoff).

[Tintrlvr]

Also interesting to note that the 538 polling averages were right on the money in estimating Warnock's margin, but slightly overestimated Ossoff (they put him at +1.8 ). Probably too small to warrant serious analysis, but I do half-wonder what made the dropoff between the two candidates wider than expected. Shy Enlightened Suburban Ticket-Splitter Effect?

I think there are two main dynamics at play that contributed to this:

The first is in line with your "shy enlightened suburban ticket splitter effect" - something I've already written about last week. This effect of course was confined to white, high-income, highly-educated areas that were much more Republican just a few short years ago; even though Perdue saw his biggest gains relative to November in those places, the gap between Warnock and Ossoff was also largest there.


The second comes down to a simple yet shifting phenomenon that has been observed to varying degrees in multiple elections dating back to at least 2008: there are more black voters who are willing to vote for a black Democrat (but not a white Democrat) than there are white voters who are willing to vote for a white Democrat (but not a black Democrat) as a percentage of their respective electorates.

However and frankly, I think the turnout differential in the runoff flipped the ratio, as even November's election showed that Democrats had more to lose than gain by running, say, a black female than a white male; I can't emphasize this enough, but relative to #trends, expectations and where resources were/were not allocated in '20, Biden won GA based on his substantially better and unexpected performance with white rural voters in the northern half of the state relative to 2018's numbers (this alone netted him ~25k votes in the margin relative to/harmonized with Abrams' performance). We also saw this phenomenon in 2018: Barrow had a closer margin than Abrams, with him doing considerably better in whiter rural areas while drop-off and support was considerably worse in blacker urban areas.

I imagine it wasn't just higher black turnout in the runoff that offset this, but higher black turnout of the right type of voter; just like with other non-white groups, I'm willing to bet a lot of lower-info black Trump '20 voters simply stayed home for the runoff.


In the runoff electorate, probably 4-5% of black voters backed Warnock but not Ossoff, while 1-2% of white voters backed Ossoff but not Warnock. In a normal election, however, this discrepancy isn't as big (and as mentioned, even in 2018 and 2020, was still reversed). Combined with the low-energy white bipartisan suburbrons who wanted to seem racially progressive but didn't want unified government, and the margin difference can more or less be explained (especially when factoring in that Perdue was better-liked across racial lines than Loeffler and also had the benefit of actual incumbency; also accounts for the slight-to-non-existent gap in non-black, non-suburban parts of the state between Warnock and Ossoff).

This analysis strikes me as far too focused on the Democrats and not enough on the Republicans, which is where there was actual, meaningful difference. Warnock-Perdue voters in ex-Milton (and similar areas) were probably mostly former straight-ticket Republican voters who have voted for Perdue before and found him familiar enough to justify splitting their tickets, while Loeffler was a political unknown who had done nothing to win their sympathy. It had nothing to do with Warnock and Ossoff per se.

To the extent there were Loeffler-Ossoff voters, they seem to have been white and rural, i.e., some Dixiecrat remnants on whom anti-Warnock scare tactics worked.

[forsythvoter]

Now that the results are final (or close to it), here's the geographic breakdown of the GA runoffs. I broke down the vote by Metro Atlanta vs. Rest of Georgia as well across the various parts of Metro ATL.

Some key points:

• Metro ATL cast ~56% of the total GA vote and went Warnock 60.9%-39.1% and Ossoff 60.2% - 39.8%.
• The rest of GA cast 44% of the total GA vote and went Loeffler 61.4% - 38.6% and Perdue 61.6% - 38.4%
• Within Metro ATL, Warnock / Ossoff dominated the urban core (Fulton / DeKalb / Clayton) by almost 4-1 margins; however, they also got close to 60% in the Inner Suburbs (Cobb / Gwinnett) and won just over 52% of the vote in the southern Exurbs. Perdue / Loeffler did win the northern Exurbs 2-1
• Interestingly, the combined suburban / exurban Metro ATL vote was Perdue / Warnock. Perdue got 50.4% and Warnock got 50.2%. Not quite a King of the Suburbs performance for Perdue but to the extent there was ticket splitting, it tended to happen here.

Note that I defined the Metro ATL regions based on my personal opinion from living here, but there are some variations in how people define these.

Urban ATL = Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton
Core Suburbs = Cobb, Gwinnett
S. Exurbs = Coweta, Fayette, Douglas, Henry, Rockdale, Newton, Walton
N. Exurbs = Paulding, Cherokee, Forsyth, Hall

                      Warnock       Loeffler   Total Votes     D%
Metro ATL         1,525,132    981,091   2,506,223     60.9%
RoGA                  763,802  1,214,282   1,978,084    38.6%
Total GA       2,288,934  2,195,373  4,484,307    51.0%

Breakdown of Metro ATL vote:
                       Warnock       Loeffler   Total Votes    D%
Urban ATL           739,453       200,967     940,420   78.6%
Non-Urban ATL    785,679       780,124  1,565,803   50.2%
  Core Suburbs   428,073       300,311    728,384    58.8%
  S. Exurbs         231,926       209,545    441,471    52.5%
  N. Exurbs         125,680       270,268    395,948    31.7%

                        Ossoff          Perdue    Total Votes    D%
Total Metro ATL  1,510,013       996,435  2,506,448   60.2%
RoGA                   759,725     1,218,071  1,977,796  38.4%
Total GA        2,269,738     2,214,506  4,484,244  50.6%

Breakdown of Metro ATL vote:
Urban ATL            732,839        207,525    940,364   77.9%
Non-Urban ATL     777,174        788,910  1,566,084   49.6%
 Core Suburbs     423,355        305,216     728,571   58.1%
 S. Exurbs           230,321        211,126     441,447   52.2%
 N. Exurbs           123,498        272,568     396,066   31.2%

[If my soul was made of stone]

I'd be very curious to have a chat with a Biden-McBath-Warnock-Perdue voter in Marietta and see where their mindset emerged, given that there seems to be a decent contingent of them. Was there much more to it than just familiarity from 2014, even though it may as well be the 80s in Realigned Georgia Years?

[forsythvoter]

I'd be very curious to have a chat with a Biden-McBath-Warnock-Perdue voter in Marietta and see where their mindset emerged, given that there seems to be a decent contingent of them. Was there much more to it than just familiarity from 2014, even though it may as well be the 80s in Realigned Georgia Years?

I grew up in East Cobb, which probably has one of the highest concentrations of Biden/ Warnock / Perdue voters and while I ended up voting for Ossoff I think the mindset of a Biden / Warnock / Perdue voter is probably pretty similar to the sentiments I've shared, with maybe a bit more residual loyalty to the R brand than I have. I would say many would have had concerns about Ds holding a trifecta, countered by increasingly strong disdain for how Trumpy much of the R party has become.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1350546120884314112

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm tired of the endless discussion of voters who split their tickets, of whom there were clearly almost none, and it's frustrating to me that it's dominating discussion of these elections everywhere when there's so much else to discuss.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Relevant once more:

agree. IL and VA are based.

[Oryxslayer]

@napervillepoli1 was nice enough to do a Precinct-based turnout map. The two things noticable here that are not at the county level are the I75 and I85 corridors, along with Gainesville city which tend to be where a lot of GA's Hispanic population is. Looking at the NYT swing map when compared to November, these are areas that lurched hard to the left.

It is a notable data point in favor of the theory that unequal turnout caused the GOP swing among non-Border and non-Dade hispanics. This theory supposes that the High-Turnout election saw most reliable Republican and Democratic Hispanics turnout, but the GOP invested in turning out infrequent conservative Hispanics, and Democrats partially disarmed because of COVID, so their infrequent Hispanics were not activated. This would lead to the the group appearing to swing right. A large turnout drop and a large swing left suggests the withdrawal of the infrequent GOP voters, leaving the only both parties frequent voters.

[Tender Branson]

The statewide results have been made official today (a couple hundred votes were added to the already certified results from the counties):

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary

[Tender Branson]

The statewide results have been made official today (a couple hundred votes were added to the already certified results from the counties):

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/summary

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1351542354616975360

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1351543780785217537

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1351606918314397696

[Kamala's side hoe]

It is a notable data point in favor of the theory that unequal turnout caused the GOP swing among non-Border and non-Dade hispanics. This theory supposes that the High-Turnout election saw most reliable Republican and Democratic Hispanics turnout, but the GOP invested in turning out infrequent conservative Hispanics, and Democrats partially disarmed because of COVID, so their infrequent Hispanics were not activated. This would lead to the the group appearing to swing right. A large turnout drop and a large swing left suggests the withdrawal of the infrequent GOP voters, leaving the only both parties frequent voters.

I wonder if this is also applicable for GA and non-GA Asians. Does anyone know how Metro Atlanta precincts with a heavier Asian/non-Latino presence swung in the runoffs?

[here2view]

My friend who lives in Atlanta was one of our fabled "TiCkEt SpLiTtErS." He voted Perdue-Warnock after voting for Jorgensen for President in November. The rare Libertarian/Democrat/Republican voter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My friend who lives in Atlanta was one of our fabled "TiCkEt SpLiTtErS." He voted Perdue-Warnock after voting for Jorgensen for President in November. The rare Libertarian/Democrat/Republican voter.

I've always believed in voting for the best candidate in each race, and I recall once voting for at least one D, R, L, and Independent on the same ballot.  (Although for the last couple of years R's have been put on my no-vote list.)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/politics/mitch-mcconnell-rioters-provoked/index.html



like look at mitch mcconnell angry at trump for costing him the senate majority

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1351738722690035714

What great Senators

[Alben Barkley]

Trump not signing this bill or at least forcing a $2000 vote on the floor of the senate would’ve given Dems the only prayer they had. But alas it’s over

Oh my god, we’re DEFINITELY winning these seats now!

Just bumping this to remind MillennialModerate to always doom over every election ever in Georgia from now on. Will guarantee Democratic dominance for all-time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SenatorWarnock/status/1352694399533273089

[brucejoel99]

Trump not signing this bill or at least forcing a $2000 vote on the floor of the senate would’ve given Dems the only prayer they had. But alas it’s over

Oh my god, we’re DEFINITELY winning these seats now!

Just bumping this to remind MillennialModerate to always doom over every election ever in Georgia from now on. Will guarantee Democratic dominance for all-time.

I've received my $50, so as far as I'm concerned, MM is immune from persecution through the next election cycle.

[It’s so Joever]

So...is this the best single election improvement in Senator delegation for a state?

[Rookie Yinzer]

So...is this the best single election improvement in Senator delegation for a state?

Yes.

[Calthrina950]

So...is this the best single election improvement in Senator delegation for a state?

Of 2020, certainly. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of Ossoff, but he's far better than David Perdue, and I was genuinely happy that Raphael Warnock overcame the racebaiting attacks against him and won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So...is this the best single election improvement in Senator delegation for a state?

Of 2020, certainly. As I've said before, I'm not a fan of Ossoff, but he's far better than David Perdue, and I was genuinely happy that Raphael Warnock overcame the racebaiting attacks against him and won.

You weren't a fan of Joe Kennedy, face it, our D caucus is getting younger while Rs are getting older and Ossoff and Kennedy are the same age 33