Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Young Conservative]

Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.

Eh more like the New Loudoun.

[GP270watch]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

Your reverse jinx worked well all cycle. Please start dooming on the GOP swarm that is coming in 2022. Thanks.

[libertpaulian]

Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.

Eh more like the New Loudoun.

I'd say Cobb is Loudoun.  DeKalb is Arlington+Alexandria.

[wbrocks67]

And a few more! NYT needle estimates are looking very good when all is said and done...

Jon Ossoff 2,233,393 (50.37%)
David Perdue 2,200,992 (49.63%)
= Ossoff +32,401 (0.74%)

Raphael Warnock 2,252,206 (50.79%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,182,238 (49.21%)
= Warnock +69,968 (1.58%)

[Mr. Smith]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

You hit the nail on the head--traditionally conservative. The suburbs used to be conservative, but in today's alignment, many suburbs can no longer be considered that.

For one, they're no longer heterogenously white, in fact there are lots of black, hispanic, and asian suburbs now. Even in white suburbs, there is an increased number of minorities. The people whose parents or grandparents once moved to the suburbs to get away from minorities are now living amongst them.

On gun control, suburbanites in the past may have liked guns as a means of protecting their McMansions from the unwashed hordes. But there has been a change in attitude since Columbine and Sandy Hook, I'm sure you can imagine why.

Suburbs are also densifying, which is a sign of left-leaning politics. Also, young people who may not be able to afford to live downtown in places like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago are moving to places like Orange, Gwinnett, and Will counties. Finally, with college education becoming an increasing dividing line in American politics, college-educated suburbanites are a more liberal bloc.

Put it all together, and the traditionally conservative suburbs are largely trending to the Democrats because they're more liberal. There are a few exceptions like Staten Island, but broadly speaking, this trend follows in most major metro areas.

I doubt that the electorate has diversified that much since Nov 3rd. I'm asking why Loeffler and Perdue underperformed Trump if Trump supposedly cost them the run-offs.

Ah fair enough. I'm generally of the belief that Republicans usually do better with Trump on the ballot, because he turns out low-propensity voters. Exit polls show that Trump voters were less likely to turn out for the special election than Biden voters, which had a predictable effect.

This is what happened with Obama during his time as Prez and why Harry Reid isn't Majority Leader now...'cuz let's face it, he wouldn't have retired in 2016 if he hadn't been demoted.

[DINGO Joe]

Gwinnett is the new Fairfax.

Eh more like the New Loudoun.

I'd say Cobb is Loudoun.  DeKalb is Arlington+Alexandria.

Gwinnett is Prince William.  Fulton is Fairfax

[Nutmeg]

late ballots push Ossoff over 60% in Gwinnett

Still shocking to me considering Bush got 67% there. 16 years is a while, sure, but it still blows my mind as a Fulton County native.

[wbrocks67]

+ update

Jon Ossoff 2,238,939 (50.40%)
David Perdue 2,203,324 (49.60%)
= Ossoff +35,615 (0.80%)

Raphael Warnock 2,257,858 (50.83%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,184,454 (49.17%)
= Warnock +73,404 (1.66%)

[DINGO Joe]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

Change your display name to "Millennial Markey" and maybe we'll forgive you

Millennial Malarkey would also be acceptable

[Adam Griffin]

First map of several I'll be making. I'll admit I just wanted to see how my Whitfield County did relative to others given we didn't have immense drop-off/R shift like usual for runoffs.

I hope it is somewhat self-explanatory (if not, I can elaborate later), but basically a measurement of:

1) how much the percentage margins changed in each county between 2020 GE & Runoff relative to the margin change between 2018 GE & Runoff
2) ditto, but each county is compared to the statewide change

i.e. if a county became 3 points more Republican in the 2018 runoff compared to the 2018 GE & became 4 points more Democratic in the 2020 runoff compared to the 2020 GE, that'd be a D shift of 7 points. The statewide figure currently is a D shift of 5.89 points, so any county with a shift less than that would be considered to have trended R, while counties with more than that would be considered to have trended D.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

late ballots push Ossoff over 60% in Gwinnett

Still shocking to me considering Bush got 67% there. 16 years is a while, sure, but it still blows my mind as a Fulton County native.

The localized realignment is really interesting to look at. It feels like the nation as a whole has barely realigned since 2000, there are a few differences but most of the Jesusland states are still voting Republican and most USC states are voting Democrat. But in pockets like the Atlanta suburbs, the realignment is very much like the transitional periods in previous party systems.

[Adam Griffin]

I've never understood why people are so shocked about Gwinnett. For the most part, it's simple demographic shift (i.e. not hordes of white suburbrons flipping like in Cobb). I think a lot of people don't realize just how quickly Gwinnett has changed.

The county has nearly doubled in size over the past 20 years and there's almost 30% less white raw population.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Trump's theatrics lost us those runoffs.  We absolutely should have won both of those- and probably were on track to do so until recently.

The issue is that no one can tell Trump to calm down and the rest of the party is (probably rightly from an electoral standpoint) petrified to go against him because the MAGA cult will rebel.  We're kind of between a rock and a hard place right now.

Also, if I'm Mitch McConnell, I offer Joe Manchin whatever he wants to become a Republican or R-caucusing Independent.  It would be a long shot, but less so than claiming that the elections were rigged.

Bad Take IMO. Why did Loeffler and Perdue underperform Trump significantly in traditionally conservative suburban Atlanta?

You hit the nail on the head--traditionally conservative. The suburbs used to be conservative, but in today's alignment, many suburbs can no longer be considered that.

For one, they're no longer heterogenously white, in fact there are lots of black, hispanic, and asian suburbs now. Even in white suburbs, there is an increased number of minorities. The people whose parents or grandparents once moved to the suburbs to get away from minorities are now living amongst them.

On gun control, suburbanites in the past may have liked guns as a means of protecting their McMansions from the unwashed hordes. But there has been a change in attitude since Columbine and Sandy Hook, I'm sure you can imagine why.

Suburbs are also densifying, which is a sign of left-leaning politics. Also, young people who may not be able to afford to live downtown in places like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago are moving to places like Orange, Gwinnett, and Will counties. Finally, with college education becoming an increasing dividing line in American politics, college-educated suburbanites are a more liberal bloc.

Put it all together, and the traditionally conservative suburbs are largely trending to the Democrats because they're more liberal. There are a few exceptions like Staten Island, but broadly speaking, this trend follows in most major metro areas.

I doubt that the electorate has diversified that much since Nov 3rd. I'm asking why Loeffler and Perdue underperformed Trump if Trump supposedly cost them the run-offs.

Ah fair enough. I'm generally of the belief that Republicans usually do better with Trump on the ballot, because he turns out low-propensity voters. Exit polls show that Trump voters were less likely to turn out for the special election than Biden voters, which had a predictable effect.

This is what happened with Obama during his time as Prez and why Harry Reid isn't Majority Leader now...'cuz let's face it, he wouldn't have retired in 2016 if he hadn't been demoted.

I very much doubt that.  I believe his health wasn't great at the time (and still isn't).

[Adam Griffin]

[Oryxslayer]

This is the key map - I got my own versions coming out with whatever data is available as soon as News gets slower. The more rural and GOP an area, the lower the turnout, with a few obvious exceptions right now for military bases. It's fairly obvious that the GOP torpedo'ed their electoral coalition over these past two months by indulging Trumps conspiracies....

[Asta]

Was gonna say: has anyone checked on Millennial Moderate? though if hes banned i'm okay with that too

Still here.

With Dem control of our government, my desperate attempt at reverse psychology comes to a successful end. Have a lot more to say just more concerned with the traitors at the capital right now

We appreciate it. Can you please display your reverse psychology on Election Day in 2022 and 2024? When you project your pessimism, the opposite seems to happen. We could really use your help.

[Thunder98]

GA and VA are now the only southern states to have 2 Dem Senators.

[WD]

Why hasn’t MillennialModerate done this yet?

If Dems win both I’ll change my name to MllennialMarkey

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

So when will they be sworn in?

[Not Me, Us]

So when will they be sworn in?

As soon as the results are certified, I imagine. So probably a week or two at the most.

[Adam Griffin]

So when will they be sworn in?

Counties have until 5 PM on Jan 15 to certify their results. After that, the SoS can immediately certify; if the results aren't within 0.5% (they won't be obviously), it's done. Today is the last day* the Senate will be in session until the 20th, so they'll be sworn in then.  

* Not sure if today's BS will require the Senate to finish certification business tomorrow or not

[Virginiá]

The Virginiafication of Georgia begins

[South Dakota Democrat]

Why hasn’t MillennialModerate done this yet?

If Dems win both I’ll change my name to MllennialMarkey

Because he's full of crap.

[LabourJersey]

late ballots push Ossoff over 60% in Gwinnett

Still shocking to me considering Bush got 67% there. 16 years is a while, sure, but it still blows my mind as a Fulton County native.

The localized realignment is really interesting to look at. It feels like the nation as a whole has barely realigned since 2000, there are a few differences but most of the Jesusland states are still voting Republican and most USC states are voting Democrat. But in pockets like the Atlanta suburbs, the realignment is very much like the transitional periods in previous party systems.

Meh, I disagree. There's been a realignment in much of the country. Colorado, NM, Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and even Texas have seen very significant swings, as have Missouri (the perennial swing state), Iowa, Ohio, western Pennsylvania and rural parts of Wisconsin and Michigan have seen rapid shifts.

Orange County CA voted for a Democratic presidential candidate by nine points! A Republican won Mahoning County! We've been some shifts that would have shocked someone from 2000 or 2004

[bagelman]

How did Ossoff do in GA-6?