What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[super6646]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/kXdPn

I believe in the Florida titanium R meme until proven otherwise. I don't think Ohio and Iowa quite deserve solid R status but they are clearly well on their way at this point.

[Chips]

Basically the same.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably close to 2012, with the exception of Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and maybe Nevada and New Mexico. The Republicans probably continue to make gains with Hispanics and African Americans, whereas the Democrats solidify their support among upscale suburban voters and moderates in general. Texas also trends more Democratic, but Republican support among Hispanic voters reduces the trends to a point.

[ultraviolet]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/wpnjE

This is my map for a competitive 2024 election.

I’ll need to see more about NE-2 but it seems like it’s trending D pretty hard, so maybe I’d put that in likely.

As for Nevada, I’d expect it to snap back to the left due to LV’s sprawling suburbs, but much is yet to be seen. It’s kinda amazing that Obama won here by 12.5

Iowa and Ohio seem pretty out of reach for Democrats at this point, as do Virginia and Colorado for Rs

[Meatball Ron]

Likely R: Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina
Lean R: Florida, North Carolina, Texas, ME-02
Toss-Up: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona
Lean D: Nevada, Michigan, NE-02
Likely D: ME-AL, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota

The rest are safe.

[MillennialModerate]

I think Trump is uniquely fitted to do well in the rust belt states. Maybe a normal Republican could do well in Wisconsin but PA I think is a unique Trump thing.

I think 4 more years of demographics can make Texas interesting depending upon what kind of race it is. It’s likely Lean R though either way. I think they’ll be a 3 cycle run from 2028-2036 where Dems will be overwhelming electoral college favorites - it will slant toward them and not the GOP because AZ, TX, GA, NC will all be Lean D. PA will stay Lean D. Michigan as well. The only state that will balance them out will be Maine which might slant R a little bit.

I also think Nevada is a one time thing and Dems will be fine.

[GALeftist]

Why are people so bearish on NV for Dems? The margins might be narrow but it hasn't voted for a Republican since W. Bush. Anyways:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/pWx9L

Only reason Florida isn't Likely R is that I don't know if that Miami-Dade shellacking was a one-time thing or if "socialism bad" will fall flat against an incumbent party.

[McGarnagle]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Same as 2016, minus NH/MN/NV.

[pbrower2a]

Georgia is extremely 'flippy'.

Trump won Florida with some last-minute Commie-baiting in Florida directed at Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans, accusing anyone of not being fervent as he in supporting pure plutocracy of being 'radical Left'. That might not work next time.

Things have to go well enough (or at least the bad stuff must not emerge until a second term) for an incumbent President to win re-election. Obviously the chaos and misfortune that happened under Trump ensures defeat. Trump made it close by playing up fear (crime, job losses, terrorism, left-wing radicals) in an effort to convince voters that even if they despised him and his agenda that they must vote for him if they know what is good for him. Enough people fell for that to make it close.

Whether Biden ends up with 270 or 413 electoral votes, he is still President.

A flip map from 2016 to 2020 is likely to show no more than six states and one often wayward district (Nebraska-2) flipping. That is more than 1996 (five), 2004 (three), and 2012 (two and one district) going from one side to the other in re-election bids.  Big swings in states involve open-seat elections.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

ME 2 isn't going stay R, Angus King is running for reelection in 2024 and will flip ME2 back D

The reason why ME2 stayed R, was that Shoe in Gideon was upsetted by Collins

D's are never gonna live ME and NC down Cunningham sex scandal cost him the ekection. Tillis is not Elizabeth Dole that lost to Kay Hagen in 2008

[DaleCooper]

It'll be quite similar to 2020, for me, though I think Georgia will be lean D at that point and I think Wisconsin should be considered a tossup regardless of whatever polling advantage Democrats may have there. Michigan is a bit of a bright spot considering that Biden got close to 51% there, not far off from his national percentage, and the Democrats should feel very good about New England (ME-02 aside) and Minnesota. Iowa and Ohio should definitely be written off at the presidential level for Democrats now.

I am hesitant though to get my heart set on any particular trend or result, whether good or bad, because if we should have learned anything from the last four years it's that one set of elections is rarely a clear indicator of what's going to happen in the next set. We'll just have to see.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Electoral College: Lean R
National Popular Vote: Tossup
House Majority: Likely R
Senate Majority: Likely R

My Way Too Early Prediction:
Nikki Haley/Josh Hawley: ~315-320 EV, 49.9% PV
Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg: ~218-223 EV, 48.7% PV

[It’s so Joever]

Electoral College: Lean R
National Popular Vote: Tossup
House Majority: Likely R
Senate Majority: Likely R

My Way Too Early Prediction:
Nikki Haley/Josh Hawley: ~315-320 EV, 49.9% PV
Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg: ~218-223 EV, 48.7% PV

Are you assuming that the recession post-Covid is still pretty heavy?
Or a Democratic Party fracturing?
Either way could get this result, especially if the Harris/Pete campaign ignores Latinos.

[Crumpets]

[Stuart98]

291 friewall

Big questions are whether Democrats' Hispanic problems were an anomaly this year and whether white voters revert to pre-Trump voting patterns once Trump's no longer on the ballot.

[Alcibiades]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4r6o

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Electoral College: Lean R
National Popular Vote: Tossup
House Majority: Likely R
Senate Majority: Likely R

My Way Too Early Prediction:
Nikki Haley/Josh Hawley: ~315-320 EV, 49.9% PV
Kamala Harris/Pete Buttigieg: ~218-223 EV, 48.7% PV

Are you assuming that the recession post-Covid is still pretty heavy?
Or a Democratic Party fracturing?
Either way could get this result, especially if the Harris/Pete campaign ignores Latinos.

I doubt it will be covid-specific in 2024, but my guess is that the economy is largely average.  I do think that Republicans will try to go all-in on the Hispanic vote after seeing what gains with Hispanics did in Texas and Florida in 2020.  Then, I think the combination of a further-left Democratic nominee and the lack of Trump himself will bring the suburbs back to a couple points right of their 2016 results (not quite all the way back to 2012 though).  Those will be able to offset a slightly worse performance with the WWC, even in a state like Minnesota.

New Mexico is obviously the big bold call on this map.  Honestly, I think Arizona might vote to the right of it at the end of the day, but I don't think it's out of the question that the GOP finds a pretty natural home in New Mexico after increased Latino outreach.

[charcuterie]

My premature ratings: https://www.270towin.com/maps/lO31E

[Sir Mohamed]

This would be extremely ironic. And it's not that unrealsitic, tbh, especially if current trends continue.

Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs. Josh Hawley/Matt Gaetz

[pbrower2a]

Heck, we don't have the results for 2020 decided yet!

[JG]

This would be extremely ironic. And it's not that unrealsitic, tbh, especially if current trends continue.

Kamala Harris/Roy Cooper vs. Josh Hawley/Matt Gaetz

I have a hard time seeing how Minnesota could vote to the left of Texas.

[Diabolical Materialism]

I know it's probably backwards thinking, but I buy the Titanium R Florida meme, but still think Iowa and Ohio are winnable for the Dems. I don't think a lot of people understand what Florida has become in the last few years.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I made this a few months ago, and I still stand by it. This is what I see the battleground looking like after the 2020 census:

Safe D: 180
Strong D (could flip in a landslide): 28 (208 total)
D-leaning battleground: 56 (264 total)

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Leans and toss-ups are for cowards
Biden/Harris 321
Whoever/whoever else 217