What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

I feel like there's a pretty good chance that Nebraska redraws the second to be non-competitive

In which direction?

[It’s so Joever]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

INJECT THIS TIMELINE INTO MY VEINS!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

INJECT THIS TIMELINE INTO MY VEINS!

Fwiw this timeline is exactly what I see happening minus Florida.

[beaver2.0]

Vice President Kamala Harris / Secretary of Defense Jack Reed  (Democratic) - 348 electoral votes
Governor Kristi Noem / Representative Dan Crenshaw (Republican) - 113 electoral votes
Former State Senator Nina Turner / Representative Jared Golden (Progressive) - 35 electoral votes
Businessman Donald Trump Jr. / Representative Ronny Jackson (MAGA/Independent in some states) - 29 electoral votes
Businessman Eric Trump / Cartoonist Scott Adams (MAGA/Independent in some states) - 13 electoral votes




Biden declines to run for a second term.  In a primary with shades of 2016, Harris gets the nod.  Progressives, led by Nina Turner, split.  Trump never concedes and announces a 2024 campaign in late December 2020 over twitter.  He plans to run as a Republican, but in late 2023, seeing that the Republicans intend to hold primaries and not have the show primaries an incumbent president usually gets, Trump announces the creation of the Make America Great Again Party.  However, he has been tied up in court cases for years and is rather unhealthy by this time.  In early May of 2024, Trump Sr. passes away.  On his deathbed, he names his successor to the ticket, but because this occurs at Mar-a-Lago and the lawn outside is being mowed, no one is sure whether he says Don Jr. or Eric.  Both claim to be the nominee, and race to file first in each state.  With the Republicans divided, the Democrats manage to win, but do lose some state on the coasts to the Progressives.

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / UN Ambassador Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) ✓

Issues of the Day: Iran War, China, Policy response to COVID-19 recession, Gun control

This is more or less my generic 2024 map. Proceeding with caution on Nevada because Hawley isn't the best candidate for suburban or latino outreach. He ultimately wins by tapping into Trump's WWC energy again (and reduced turnout).

[Chips]

A successful GOP map would probably look something like this.

GOP: 315 electoral votes
Dems: 223 electoral votes

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Harris-Buttigieg vs DeSantis-Haley

[pbrower2a]

Figuring...

1. Georgia goes to Biden and North Carolina goes to Trump in 2020

2. with an incumbent running for re-election, no more than five states flip for or against the incumbent, total

3. No state flips more than 6% when one of the candidates is repeated barring a catastrophic failure as President (ironically Trump was a catastrophic failure, but he did far better than most expected)

TX -- imaginable flip R to D
FL -- possible flip R to D
NC --possible flip R to D
GA -- possible flip D to R
AZ -- possible flip D to R
WI -- possible flip D to R
PA -- possible flip D to R
MI -- possible flip D to R
NV -- possible flip D to R

Outside this range? Ohio T +8.16, Iowa T +8.22, Minnesota B +7.13, New Hampshire B +7.37, Maine at-large B +8.70. Anything else? The DEA wants to find your source, because everything else is more than 10% away from even. (I have nothing on ME-02 and NE-02 yet).

The really-scary thing is that we have such extreme interstate polarization. Maybe this reflects Donald Trump, and I am guessing that he will not run for re-election... or he will be defeated in the Republican primaries.

     
 

[John Dule]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

They wouldn't be lean D in a neutral environment, but they could be for her in a strongly Democratic environment.

Predicting that is bold and I'm not going to do it.

[Real Texan Politics]

Tucker Carlson / Josh Hawley (R) - 311
Kamala Harris / Stacey Abrams (D) - 227

Of course it's likely this scenario doesn't happen but it's always fun to speculate.

Anyways, some explanations on why certain states went their ways...

Georgia would stay titanium tilt D for this cycle with Stacey Abrams on the ticket, but Stacey would also hold many rallies throughout the state to increase turnout, especially in the Atlanta suburbs. It's possible Tucker could flip it back into his column without Stacey on the dem ticket, but even then it would be dangerously close.

NE-02 is a lost cause for republicans. It swung so hard to Biden this time around that I don't see it flipping back anytime soon. Tucker could get it within 3 but either way a loss is a loss.

Tucker would make a major play for the rust belt with not only the blue wall trio of WI, MI, and PA, but also with Minnesota. He would hold numerous rallies in the union and industrial parts of the states like the Minnesota Iron Range, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Flint, and Scranton. Michigan and Minnesota could go either way in this scenario, but I have them tilting ever so slightly to Tucker.

Tucker could also make Nevada and New Hampshire a lot more competitive this cycle like Trump in 2016, and possibly to the point of winning both of them if a major scandal surrounding him weren't to occur (maybe Trump could've won both of those along with Minnesota in 2016 if it weren't for Access Hollywood?).

Arizona could flip back if Tucker improves in the suburbs, but that's another state I'm weary about.

Anyways if this makes no sense to some of y'all, I was typing this all out at like 2:30 in the morning lol

[EastwoodS]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

Like I’ve said on other forums, Democrats on this site seem to think that everyone is in love with their policies to the point that it doesn’t matter who leads their ticket.

[Dr. MB]

[S019ian Liberal]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

Omg so totally this.

Like I’ve said on other forums, Democrats on this site seem to think that everyone is in love with their policies to the point that it doesn’t matter who leads their ticket.

And I couldn't f---ing agree with this more. I'll have a longer post up later today explaining why I feel this way and how Dems can do something about it's what.

[S019ian Liberal]

okay so in this thread over the long-term imo, democrats face a disadvantage because their policies and politics simply aren't popular. it's time to stop making vapid excuses such as "hrc was a bad candidate" after she lost in 2016 or that "biden was bored and uninspiring" in the lead-up to this year's race, or attributing either/both of their underwhelming showings to trump's personal appeal. people largely tend to forget that in both years, the actually *under*ran the top of the ticket, so it also does not explain congressional elections nor state legislative races at the gubernatorial level and a similar stage, however.

we have experienced a consistent trend over the past couple decades, certainly since all of the bush years (a few within, granted) still to be truly. and apart from the factor of pulled into obama's aura, as well as a predictable midterm backlash against an unpopular poorly-funded polarizing divisive incumbent still adjusting to the handles of his new regular day job, they consistently outperform baseline expectations while all the same showing up in ever-larger (and still-yet increasing) numbers to the polls!

we can't trust anymore how they say about the culture war's turning off moderate "suburban" voters in the middle, but meanwhile at camp all the same it isn't true that something is fundamentally lacking to the strategy deployed by national democrats, however. as for what they can do to mitigate further movement in this direction is a question that frankly just escapes me and i would be a terribly surprised if i were to discover it weren't beyond all of you as single individuals too.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm using post-2020 census projected electoral votes.

Tied national vote, no tossups:

Rep 287 Dem 251

Tied national vote, with battleground

Rep 246 Dem 211

NPV +5 Dem, no tossups:

Dem 318 Rep 220

NPV +5 Dem, with battleground

Dem 273 Rep 148

NPV +5 Rep, no tossups:

Rep 330 Dem 208

NPV +5 Rep, with battleground

Rep 315 Dem 202

Composite battleground if the result is between +5 Rep and +5 Dem

Dem 201 Rep 148

Fringe-competitive D states: VA, IL, NJ, OR, CO (in that order)

Fringe-competitive R states: IA, OH, KS (in that order)

States with the largest trends (all ratings in a NPV tie unless otherwise specified):
TX - Likely R to Lean R
CO & VA - Likely D to Safe D
KS -  Safe R to Likely R (in a +10 D election)
AZ - Lean R to Tossup
OR - Likely D to Safe D (in a +10 R election)
ME - Likely D to Lean D
NH - Lean D to Tossup
MN - Lean D to Tossup
WI - Tossup to Lean R
OH & IA - Likely R to Safe R

[S019]

237 EV-Democrat
179 EV-Republican
122 EV-Tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

237 EV-Democrat
179 EV-Republican
122 EV-Tossup

Don't you realize that ME2 will flip back D,  Angus King is running in 2024 and will flip ME 2 back D. ME2 only stayed R due to Gideon pathetic performance in ME

[OSR stands with Israel]

Shading Key:

80%= Safe
70%= Likely
60%= Titanium Lean R
40%= Lean

[S019]

237 EV-Democrat
179 EV-Republican
122 EV-Tossup

Don't you realize that ME2 will flip back D,  Angus King is running in 2024 and will flip ME 2 back D. ME2 only stayed R due to Gideon pathetic performance in ME

Angus King has said he is retiring and Golden probably would have lost had the NRCC not triaged Dale Crafts. It wasn't just Gideon who underperformed, Biden barely made up any ground in ME-02 compares to 2016.

[President Johnson]

226 - 178 - 134

[It’s so Joever]

I seriously have no idea how anyone here thinks that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be "Lean D" states in an election with Harris at the top of the ticket. It demonstrates a mind-boggling lack of awareness as to how she is perceived by the electorate, and of how that region is trending as a whole.

Denial by Democrats.
That being said I think there is a decent chance Biden actually does run again, contrary to popular opinion.

[cwh2018]

In my mind the GOP are favoured to win against Harris and it is a toss-up against Biden.  The Gop have to win back Arizona,Wisconsin,Georgia and just change the second district to make it likely R.  They lost Pennsylvania and I think Trump held up really well Michigan given the massive voter increase and it will be well to the right of the nation.  Maine 2 looks gone for the democrats in a competitive election and New Hampshire and Nevada could both theoretically be very competitive.  I have cooled considerably on Minnesota for 2024 and think the GOP may well have to win the popular vote to win it.

Texas will probably not be going blue in a close election in 2024 and Florida and North Carolina are serious problems for the democrats in close elections.  They have really high floors in both states but are really struggling to actually get over the line in these states now.  There is very little else that the democrats can target.

For the GOP the question is is Trump a unique candidate able to attract low-propensity and low-info voters to the polls that won't turnout for other GOP candidates.  If this is the case then the GOP's position is weaker than it appears. 

[Real Texan Politics]

Wouldn't mind having Yang as prez but I got a couple of problems with that post:

1. Dianne Feinstein....no, just no.

2. That map is either satirical or makes no sense, or both.

[It’s so Joever]

Anyways here are five scenarios from worst to NUT.

Scenario 1: Cleveland’s Ghost
After two years, the Democrats get shellacked in the midterms and lose the House. McConnell blocks everything and Biden not Harris effectively pin the blame on him. Furthermore, the economic recovery expected post-covid doesn’t come quickly, and is more like 2008. In 2023, Trump declared his candidacy again claiming everything would be infinitely better had Biden not been elected. Biden decides to not run and Harris wins the nomination. Progressives and young voters are disillusioned and sit out. Basically we have the fundamentals of 2012, and one of the weakest candidates in a long time.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4w94


Scenario 2: The charismatic challenger
2022 is also pretty bad for Democrats here, although not as terrible as in the first scenario.
A young, new Republican face who manages to draw the admiration of Trumpists and not completely scare off conservatives becomes the nominee. He likely has someone more experienced to balance it out.
Biden doesn’t run again for health reasons, and Harris runs with a pretty milquetoast VP (kinda like Kaine in 2016) Although the economy has improved since 2020, it’s not completely recovered and more importantly, the GOP is able to pin every problem on the Democrats.
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4w9c

Scenario 3: Trends ARE real
2022 is not terrible for the Democrats, though they do lose some of the low hanging fruit and cracked districts. The Republicans only have a narrow majority in the House and senate. Trump continues to be loud and vocal and supports the GOP on his new radio show.
Biden declines to run again and Harris selects Pete as her running mate. Meanwhile, Don Jr decides to run with a Republican who can appeal heavily to the WWC and boost turnout.
The economy has recovered to a decent extent and the Harris/Pete campaign is able to use that to their advantage.
In the end the realignment this year is ridiculous.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4w9m

Scenario 4: Cruise Control
Democrats still lose the House narrowly, but actually manage to gain a seat (net) in the Senate. The government is still divided, but McConnell is less horrid because Biden isn’t a scary black man and Trump eats one too many Big Macs before he croaks. The economy recovers anyways and is getting close to where it was before. Not much is passed, although some bipartisan reforms are made. Biden runs again, defying popular wisdom, and Harris is still his running mate.
Tom Cotton becomes the nominee and has Kevin McCarthy as his running mate. The two are boring and don’t have the charisma to get a Trump effect. The election itself is the most boring since 2012, or maybe even 1996, and Biden cruises to victory. (and flips the House back)

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4wa1

Scenario 5: It’s morning again

Contrary to popular wisdom, Democrats actually net seats in the House and flip two senate seats (50/50) Decent reforms are able to be passed and the economy roars from 2021-2023. It’s literally like the post-WW2 recovery (although more uneven)
Trump lashes out at everyone and constantly whines about how everyone abandoned him.
He refuses to endorse Republican nominee Mike Pence because Pence did not want Donny to be the VP. The Pence/Haley ticket is an interesting attempt to get back suburbanites, but it’s not enough to fight against the fundamentals, the environmental reforms passed by in 2023, and Biden’s overall charm.
This is the 1984 scenario although a bit more polarized.
Democrats gain seats in the House and Senate.

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4wag