What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Secretary of Veterans Affairs Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)
Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) / Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) ✓

Another close one, because that's been the trend for the 21st century. Now I'm thinking ME-AL isn't there yet, though.

[Real Texan Politics]

Harris/Cooper (D) 309 EV / 51% (312 before reapportionment)
Haley/Cotton (R) 229 EV / 47% (226 before reapportionment)

I don't see any scenario happening in which Nikki Haley loses Georgia and North Carolina. Honestly a Haley/Cotton ticket is perfect for the region.

Possibly Arizona and less likely Nevada flip to Nikki but that may be pushing it. NE-02 could also flip back but considering how far left it swung this time she'd have to be lucky to win it.

Also ME-02 should be republican. Even if Nikki underperforms Trump, she still wins it.

[EastwoodS]

https://www.270towin.com/custom-maps/projected-2024-electoral-vote-allocation

[SingingAnalyst]

Same as 2020 with GA flipped.

Kamala Harris/Nina Turner (D) 50.5% / 286 EV
Mike Pence/Nikki Haley (R) 47.5% / 252 EV

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

California Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) / North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC)

vs

Former President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Missouri Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO)

[AGA]

This isn't for any specific nominees, just what I would say the aggregate probability is if you take everything in consideration. I have NE-02 only as Lean D because who knows how they will redistrict it. (current boundaries Likely D).

[pbrower2a]

[/quote]

Minimal change, as only four states change sides in an election involving an incumbent President.  It's typically three to five unless

(1) the incumbent is a catastrophic failure like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, or
(2) the incumbent is able to portray the opposing nominee as an unconventional and dangerous radical.

Five states and NE-02 changed hands between 2016 and 2020, and Trump had won so barely in 2016 that he could afford to lose only two.

I don't see Joe Biden as a disaster, and the GOP is already a far-right, semi-fascist Party to which Americans are well accustomed. Pence is more of the same that most Americans see in the GOP. Four states change hands, but Biden wins much as he did in 2020 in 2024.

The Red Scare rhetoric will fail in Florida the next time as it will be easy for Biden to distinguish himself from Raul Castro or Nicolas Maduro. Wisconsin is demographically similar to Iowa and goes with Iowa.     

[EastwoodS]

Minimal change, as only four states change sides in an election involving an incumbent President.  It's typically three to five unless

(1) the incumbent is a catastrophic failure like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, or
(2) the incumbent is able to portray the opposing nominee as an unconventional and dangerous radical.

Five states and NE-02 changed hands between 2016 and 2020, and Trump had won so barely in 2016 that he could afford to lose only two.

I don't see Joe Biden as a disaster, and the GOP is already a far-right, semi-fascist Party to which Americans are well accustomed. Pence is more of the same that most Americans see in the GOP. Four states change hands, but Biden wins much as he did in 2020 in 2024.

The Red Scare rhetoric will fail in Florida the next time as it will be easy for Biden to distinguish himself from Raul Castro or Nicolas Maduro. Wisconsin is demographically similar to Iowa and goes with Iowa.     
[/quote]
Lol, esp at Florida

[pbrower2a]

Minimal change, as only four states change sides in an election involving an incumbent President.  It's typically three to five unless

(1) the incumbent is a catastrophic failure like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, or
(2) the incumbent is able to portray the opposing nominee as an unconventional and dangerous radical.

Five states and NE-02 changed hands between 2016 and 2020, and Trump had won so barely in 2016 that he could afford to lose only two.

I don't see Joe Biden as a disaster, and the GOP is already a far-right, semi-fascist Party to which Americans are well accustomed. Pence is more of the same that most Americans see in the GOP. Four states change hands, but Biden wins much as he did in 2020 in 2024.

The Red Scare rhetoric will fail in Florida the next time as it will be easy for Biden to distinguish himself from Raul Castro or Nicolas Maduro. Wisconsin is demographically similar to Iowa and goes with Iowa.     

Lol, esp at Florida

At least I see Wisconsin trending R and Georgia in 2020 as an anomaly.  I don't see Biden or Harris doing anything that suggests an imitation of Castroite or 'Bolivarian' socialism, and or even showing solidarity with dictatorial "red" regimes (as we used to use the word "red", as in Marxist-Leninist" in Cuba or Venezuela.

[dw93]

30% shading= lean (only Michigan for the Dems in this case)
50% shading= likely (MN, NH, ME AL, and NV for Dems, TX and FL for GOP)
90% shading= solid

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Here are my ratings.

[EastwoodS]

[SN2903]