What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[MT Treasurer]

This is my map:

Was considering moving NC to Lean R and GA to Lean D, but I’ll be generous for now.

[AGA]

President Biden reelection:

Fundamentally, President Biden should be favored to win reelection. It is very rare for the incumbent party to lose three times in a row, and the economy should be fine. This is the only reason why IA, OH, and FL are only leaning Republican. If the Democratic nominee is someone else, this race would be more competitive (with Florida solidly Republican, of course).

[Ferguson97]

Sticking with the 2012-2020 allocation because we don't know how the 2020 census will shake out yet. I can't imagine a few EVs would make or break a map.



Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada are the Republican's Texas. I don't really see them flipping, but it wouldn't be out of the question.

Texas is probably "not there yet" but we'll see if the increased rural turnout stays for 2024.

The memes are right, Florida is Titanium Tilt R.

Iowa and Ohio are probably gone for the Democrats, but they can't be ruled out yet. But if they go red in 2024, they're out of the question for 2028.

The tossups should be obvious - MI/PA/WI are closer than expected and clearly have enough Republicans that they're in reach for either party. Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are trending to the Democrats at varying degrees. Easily winnable for either party.

NE-02 and ME-02 are enigmas, but I think ME-02 will lean Republican and NE-02 will be a tossup.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Assuming Biden declines to run for re-election, and Harris is the nominee:

[Figueira]

Leans and toss-ups are for cowards
Biden/Harris 321
Whoever/whoever else 217

I was going to post this exact map, so I'm glad you beat me to it. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are certainly in play though, as is North Carolina. Texas and Florida could be if Democrats find a way to solve the Latino problem. Georgia and Arizona are probably going to be the new Virginia/Colorado.

[McGarnagle]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

ME 2 isn't going stay R, Angus King is running for reelection in 2024 and will flip ME2 back D

The reason why ME2 stayed R, was that Shoe in Gideon was upsetted by Collins

D's are never gonna live ME and NC down Cunningham sex scandal cost him the ekection. Tillis is not Elizabeth Dole that lost to Kay Hagen in 2008

I don't know if it cost him the ekection, but it may have cost him the election. No matter. NC is not permanently Republican. Maine sure was disappointing but Collins won't be there forever.

[Alcibiades]

I made this a few months ago, and I still stand by it. This is what I see the battleground looking like after the 2020 census:

Safe D: 180
Strong D (could flip in a landslide): 28 (208 total)
D-leaning battleground: 56 (264 total)

Lean R Minnesota to the right of Michigan and Pennsylvania is ... odd.

[Del Tachi]

United States presidential election, 2024

(✓) Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) / Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) - 303 EVs; 70.6 million votes (49.5%)

Vice Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Fmr. UN Ambassador Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) - 235 EVs; 67.3 million votes (47.2%)

[MATTROSE94]

President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 401 EVs (51%)
Former President Donald Trump (I-FL)/Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (I-MT): 116 EVs (35%)
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 21 EVs (12%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

I would love to see this map, as it would show a fractured post-Trump Republican party and allow the Democrats to gain much ground in Congress due to vote-splitting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Angus King is running  for reelection so he will flip ME 2 blue again
Stabenow, Casey Jr, Kaine, Baldwin, Sinema, Rosen, Brown are all expected to win reelection in 2024

🌹 Rosendale v Tester Likely R
Manchin is Doug Jones of 2024

Rick Scott is expected to lose his reelection bid.

Whomever runs in 2024, in TX as R is safe, if Cruz is or isn't the R nominee for Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden/Harris 352
Ted Cruz/Haley 186

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

President Biden reelection:

Fundamentally, President Biden should be favored to win reelection. It is very rare for the incumbent party to lose three times in a row, and the economy should be fine. This is the only reason why IA, OH, and FL are only leaning Republican. If the Democratic nominee is someone else, this race would be more competitive (with Florida solidly Republican, of course).

PA, M I, WI, OH, and ME2 aren't  Tossups since Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr, Baldwin and Stabenow and King are favored to win in 2024

[Medal506]

Harris/Cooper (D) defeats Pence/Cotton (R)

Going against the conventional wisdom of midterm losses for the incumbent party, Democrats gain in the House and narrowly flip the Senate in 2022, as Biden is able to effectively blame the lack of legislative action on McConnell. Biden announces in the days afterwards that he "was always a transitional President" and "will not seek re-election in 2024". Biden endorses Harris, who becomes the nominee. Harris selects Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina as her running mate, and narrowly flips North Carolina and Florida while hanging on to all the states Biden won in 2020.

Pence is nominated by the Republicans in a field featuring Nikki Haley, Tom Cotton and Charlie Baker. Though Baker led most polling against Harris, he is deemed to be insufficiently conservative by GOP primary voters. Pence selects Cotton as his running mate. Texas is decided by less than 3% in Pence's favor, continuing its slow trend towards Democrats.

Pence would be the modern day Walter Mondale.

[Beet]

[Suburbia]

Sherrod Brown/Val Demings vs. Josh Hawley/Nikki Haley

[New York En Marche!]

I feel like there's a pretty good chance that Nebraska redraws the second to be non-competitive

[KaiserDave]

It doesn't exist because predicting elections four years out is silly.

[bagelman]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4sjs

EC's very unbalanced right now. NE-2 and ME-2 have not been drawn for 2022-2030 yet, no projections possible.

[SingingAnalyst]

Harris/AOC (D) 49% / 280 EV
Haley/Cotton (R) 48% / 258 EV

More polarized than 2016 or 2020. First all-female Dem or GOP ticket and first GOP ticket with two Southerners.

[MillennialModerate]

Tilt/Likely/Safe

I think Michigan and especially Pennsylvania are dramatically more Democrat with Trump not on the ticket. He has a special (god knows why) appeal to the union white working class male there.

Our initial thoughts on Wisconsin being the weakest of the blue wall states is correct

[One Term Floridian]

Obviously too damn early, but here is my forecast so far:

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=4t73

I feel FL will be more of a toss-up next time around. Doubt the socialism schtick can work against an incumbent Democratic administration

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA goes back R but NC, OH and FL flip, ME2 FLIPS, it's likely King retires and hand seat over to D's and they win ME2 convincingly
TX and IA will stay R


GA is likely to flip from D to R, Brian Kemp will win reelection
Sherrod Brown  will help D's win OH again

BIDEN/HARRIS 353
Cruz/Haley 185

Rs Nominate the next in line and Cruz was the next olin line

[S019ian Liberal]

optipessimistic version:



trends-are-real version:

[BigSerg]

R Hawley/Pence (or Pence/Hawley) 48.5%
D Harris/Warren (Pocahontas) 50%

[Stockdale for Veep]

President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 401 EVs (51%)
Former President Donald Trump (I-FL)/Businessman Donald Trump Jr. (I-MT): 116 EVs (35%)
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-TX): 21 EVs (12%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

I would love to see this map, as it would show a fractured post-Trump Republican party and allow the Democrats to gain much ground in Congress due to vote-splitting.

A successor to the JEB (!) N U T map has emerged!