Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[Statilius the Epicurean]

ource? Most experts are in agreement that Tigray is the one region of Ethiopia you can find the popular will and the TPLF's action are correlated almost 1 to 1 and is the most intent on full seperatism...and that's from people like International Crisis Group who tend to be sympathetic to the soppy idea of a united Ethiopia.

Not even the TPLF are separatist, they're fighting to replace the central government with an ally. Separatist feelings are as recent as this year.

It's not a "tangent", I'm just pointing out the principal flaw in your argument as stated (if a majority within a country opposes something it's "undemocratic" to do it).

It's a tangent because you're arguing against a point you imagined me to have made.

[jaichind]

In the last 24 hours, the ENDF continues to gain ground and seems to be closing in  Kombolcha and Dessie although ENDF claims that they have recaptured both cities does not seem to be true.  The shifting of the front indicates that the turning point was, as I predicted, at Debre Sina.   For TPLF to get to Addis Ababa they have to first capture Debre Birhan.  And the gate to Debre Birhan is  Debre Sina. So ENDF had the advantage of knowing that TPLF HAD to get past Debre Sina, get up the steep hill, and then get to the road to Debre Birhan.  It is clear TPLF got to  Debre Sina and after a few days had to pull back and after that continued to lose ground to ENDF.  It seems what took place was, as I thought would take place, ENDF used the fortified hills along with drones and ENDF airforce, drove back the TPLF attack.

[Zinneke]

ource? Most experts are in agreement that Tigray is the one region of Ethiopia you can find the popular will and the TPLF's action are correlated almost 1 to 1 and is the most intent on full seperatism...and that's from people like International Crisis Group who tend to be sympathetic to the soppy idea of a united Ethiopia.

Not even the TPLF are separatist, they're fighting to replace the central government with an ally. Separatist feelings are as recent as this year.

I'm really sorry, but you don't know what you are talking about if you think the TPLF have never been separatist before this year - they were formed to found an independent Tigray state. It was only once they decided to overrun Mengistu that they decided to form the political EPRDF congregation as a way of controlling Ethiopia, largely because their leader Zenawi thought he could create the pathway to separatism for all people but first go through a developmental state phase, but also a vehicle for the TPLF to loot Ethiopia. It is the TPLF that had Ethiopia have one of the first constitutions in recorded history to offer a clear pathway to separatism and its not for nothing either than it was under the TPLF are the ones to have created ethnic-based regions for the first time either.

Now of course some a speculating the TPLF and the OLA are both allying to replace and restore their own stooges again but at least nominally the TPLF was a separatist force at birth and is now a separatist force again. Its aspirations of a united Ethiopia basically died with Meles Zenawi.

ource? Most experts are in agreement that Tigray is the one region of Ethiopia you can find the popular will and the TPLF's action are correlated almost 1 to 1 and is the most intent on full seperatism...and that's from people like International Crisis Group who tend to be sympathetic to the soppy idea of a united Ethiopia.

Not even the TPLF are separatist, they're fighting to replace the central government with an ally. Separatist feelings are as recent as this year.

It's not a "tangent", I'm just pointing out the principal flaw in your argument as stated (if a majority within a country opposes something it's "undemocratic" to do it).

It's a tangent because you're arguing against a point you imagined me to have made.

But you did make this point :

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country,

Can you source this claim?

What about the Oromo protest movement that toppled the TPLF hegemony?

The referendum in Gambella?

Or do most Ethiopians to you mean most Amharic supremacists?

I don't think the OLA and TPLF are angels far from it but these kind of movements within their communities don't just pop up without heavy grievances against the central government.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I'm really sorry, but you don't know what you are talking about if you think the TPLF have never been separatist before this year - they were formed to found an independent Tigray state. It was only once they decided to overrun Mengistu that they decided to form the political EPRDF congregation as a way of controlling Ethiopia, largely because their leader Zenawi thought he could create the pathway to separatism for all people but first go through a developmental state phase, but also a vehicle for the TPLF to loot Ethiopia. It is the TPLF that had Ethiopia have one of the first constitutions in recorded history to offer a clear pathway to separatism and its not for nothing either than it was under the TPLF are the ones to have created ethnic-based regions for the first time either.

Now of course some a speculating the TPLF and the OLA are both allying to replace and restore their own stooges again but at least nominally the TPLF was a separatist force at birth and is now a separatist force again. Its aspirations of a united Ethiopia basically died with Meles Zenawi.

You made my point for me. The TPLF ruled over a (such as it was) federalised Ethiopia for 3 decades. That does not suggest Tigrayans wanted the breakup of the country -- until they lost power in the last couple of years. You can argue things at this point have spiralled out of control as to make it impossible, but a framework that Tigrayans can accept within Ethiopia is not in principle impossible. At least until the war began.

What about the Oromo protest movement that toppled the TPLF hegemony?

The referendum in Gambella?

Or do most Ethiopians to you mean most Amharic supremacists?

I don't think the OLA and TPLF are angels far from it but these kind of movements within their communities don't just pop up without heavy grievances against the central government.

The Oromo protest movement was again not separatist but protesting for civil rights against the government that people wanted within Ethiopia. Separatism is a tendency within Oromos but far from the majority. I don't know what you mean about Gambella other than the South Sudan independence referendum?

Obviously there are grievances against the central government. That doesn't mean the balkanisation of Ethiopia itself wouldn't be violent and destructive, possibly without end. Look at the ethnic cleansing that's happened in West Tigray. Just a few years ago Ethiopia was the fastest growing economy in Africa and a beacon to the rest of the continent, holding out the promise that there could be a route to development that worked for Sub-Saharan African. That it could be thrown away because of ethnic rivalry (the TPLF couldn't accept subordinate status) is tragic.

[Zinneke]

I'm really sorry, but you don't know what you are talking about if you think the TPLF have never been separatist before this year - they were formed to found an independent Tigray state. It was only once they decided to overrun Mengistu that they decided to form the political EPRDF congregation as a way of controlling Ethiopia, largely because their leader Zenawi thought he could create the pathway to separatism for all people but first go through a developmental state phase, but also a vehicle for the TPLF to loot Ethiopia. It is the TPLF that had Ethiopia have one of the first constitutions in recorded history to offer a clear pathway to separatism and its not for nothing either than it was under the TPLF are the ones to have created ethnic-based regions for the first time either.

Now of course some a speculating the TPLF and the OLA are both allying to replace and restore their own stooges again but at least nominally the TPLF was a separatist force at birth and is now a separatist force again. Its aspirations of a united Ethiopia basically died with Meles Zenawi.

You made my point for me. The TPLF ruled over a (such as it was) federalised Ethiopia for 3 decades.

You are changing the goalposts, you wrote clearly :

Seperatist feelings are as recent as this year

They may have been put on hold for 3 decades, for strategic reasons, but 2 decades before that the TPLF was separatist and enjoyed widespread support in the Tigrayan population.

You can argue things at this point have spiralled out of control as to make it impossible, but a framework that Tigrayans can accept within Ethiopia is not in principle impossible. At least until the war began.

Obviously there are grievances against the central government. That doesn't mean the balkanisation of Ethiopia itself wouldn't be violent and destructive,

This is again looking at it through the wrong lens. Ethiopia is violent and destructive because it has a history of one ethnicity monopolising power in a centralised manner. A more peaceful society would have emerged had the yoke in Addis not always denigrated peripheral nationalities. Its only through allowing these people at the very least autonomy in a democratic manner that you avoid bloodshed because their interests simply haven't been represented, in some cases for centuries.

Look at the ethnic cleansing that's happened in West Tigray.

Which is why international mediators are required and explicitly state that no state will be recognised that claims ethnic homogeneity and wishes to commit war crimes. I understand this is idealism especially when the Chinese are involved (promoting your vision as it happens) but its how the international system should work.

Just a few years ago Ethiopia was the fastest growing economy in Africa and a beacon to the rest of the continent, holding out the promise that there could be a route to development that worked for Sub-Saharan African.

And they would have kept that growth had it not been for poor management of inter-ethnic relations. Again I fail to see either how other regions of Ethiopia would struggle for growth being independent, when Addis has significantly impoverished them in favour of the capital or their region for years. You can blame the TPLF for their 25 years of repression and sordid human rights record. But the bigger structural issues are deep seated.

[CumbrianLefty]

And again, its been at least formally united in pretty much its present form for around a millennium.

How is that relevant. Austria-Hungary was also relatively united. And I don't think being under an Amharic woke constitutes being "united".

On the most generous reading, Austria-Hungary lasted barely a century.

[Zinneke]

And again, its been at least formally united in pretty much its present form for around a millennium.

How is that relevant. Austria-Hungary was also relatively united. And I don't think being under an Amharic woke constitutes being "united".

On the most generous reading, Austria-Hungary lasted barely a century.

Do you yes or no believe in anti-imperialism and anti-colonialism? In the right to self-determination inscribed in basic human rights law? Then how is Ethiopia different from the other empires that have existed throughout time? It has never been this land of milk and honey where all ethnicities held hands and sung cumbaya as some here seem to think. I don't even think the Basques or Catalan analogy helps because those nationalisms are far more post-modern phenomena* that the peripheral nationalism you see in Ethiopia and the deep seated issues the state has had for years.


*not to mention they have basic cultural, economic and political autonomy and rights.

[jaichind]

Looks like significant fighting is taking place near Kombolcha with ENDF launching attacks to try to take the city.  So far while TPLF is on the defensive but is still holding Kombolcha.  It seems that increased drone activity is helping the ENDF last few days.  ENDF is operating drones from UAE, Turkey, and PRC.  UAE and Turkey seem to be directly operating those drones while PRC drones are being operated by UAE military personnel who were trained on how to operate PRC drones.  

Just like the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, drones are playing a significant role in this conflict.  

The good news for TPLF is the area around Kombolcha is more mountainous which is favorable to TPLF than the more flat terrain in the battles to the south earlier. 

[jaichind]

https://www.senenews.com/actualites/societe/ethiopie-le-gouvernement-dit-avoir-repris-les-villes-cles-de-dessie-et-kombolcha_378071.html

Looks like ENDF recapture Kombolcha and Dessie.  No TPLF denails so most likely true. If so major victory for ENDF.  TPLF might have shot its bolt and is now in retreat.  TPLF has to stop fighting conventional battles and lure ENDF into advancing too quickly and ambush them.   That is how TPLF won earlier this year and they have to get back to basics.

[jaichind]

When Abiy Ahmed left the capital to go to the front 10 days ago one working theory was that he was trying to escape the country.  It seems what was taking place was that he knew that the tide would turn soon so he went to the front to claim full credit for the turning of the tide.

[jaichind]

So in a little more than a month, the front moved over almost 400km.  The distance from Debre Sina Kombolcha is almost 200km.  So in 30 some odd days TPLF took Kombolcha and advanced 200km to Debre Sina where it was repulsed and retreated back to Kombolcha before losing it.  Truly a war of movement.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So in a little more than a month, the front moved over almost 400km.  The distance from Debre Sina Kombolcha is almost 200km.  So in 30 some odd days TPLF took Kombolcha and advanced 200km to Debre Sina where it was repulsed and retreated back to Kombolcha before losing it.  Truly a war of movement.

This is making Korea look like WWI in terms of abrupt movements and reversals.

[Logical]

I don't see anyone winning this war anytime soon. Even if the ENDF manage to push into and occupy Tigray again, they won't be able to hold it for long. A negotiated settlement appears to be the most likely outcome.

[jaichind]

I don't see anyone winning this war anytime soon. Even if the ENDF manage to push into and occupy Tigray again, they won't be able to hold it for long. A negotiated settlement appears to be the most likely outcome.

Now that the push onto Addis Ababa has failed I expect TPLF to pull back slowly and try to ambush ENDF along the way.    I expect the next TPLF move might be to drive into Western Tigray to reopen its supply route from Sudan.  Western Tigray most likely has EPLF ENDF and Amhara militia forces there and might become the next flashpoint.  The longer the war drags out the better the ENDF position will become if TPLF cannot recapture Western Tigray. 

I agree with you that even if ENDF can capture and secure the upper hand it is hard for them to achieve a complete victory in the mountains of Tigray.  They might op to starve the TPLF out which will work in the long run but will have diplomatic and long-term costs if they want to control Tigray in the long run.  Perhaps once the TPLF gets boxed in with no way out they might compromise more with the Addis Ababa regime and a compromise peace achieved.  A lot of heavy fighting will need to take place before we get to that stage.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

In particular, there's no viable solution for Addis Ababa in the event of a break-up - it's in Oromia, but around half the population are Amhara and there are significant minorities from most of Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

In particular, there's no viable solution for Addis Ababa in the event of a break-up - it's in Oromia, but around half the population are Amhara and there are significant minorities from most of Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.

The Amharas will inherit the central state incl. the capital. Any Oromo state will be significantly smaller than the current (rather sprawling) Oromia.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

In particular, there's no viable solution for Addis Ababa in the event of a break-up - it's in Oromia, but around half the population are Amhara and there are significant minorities from most of Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.

The Amharas will inherit the central state incl. the capital. Any Oromo state will be significantly smaller than the current (rather sprawling) Oromia.

That's not a solution. 20-30% of the population of Addis are Oromo, so you still aren't going to get a fragmentation that maps neatly to the distribution of the various ethnic groups.

[jaichind]

The ENDF Northern offensive continues and seems to be closing in on Mersa with the goal of getting to Weldiya which is the remaining large city outside of Tigray that TPLF controls.  It seems ENDF will be getting close to Mersa soon.   If ENDF does capture Mersa then things get more difficult for ENDF.   A move from Mersa to Weldiya will involve going through a hilly and mountainous area where TPLF excels at a defensive ambush.   If the ENDF pushes forward for political reasons it risks an ambush defeat as it suffered earlier in the year in Tigray and Northern Amhara several times.  But for now, clearly, ENDF is on the offensive.

If ENDF does push TPLF back into Tigray I wonder if they will then focus on holding Western Tigray to starve out TPLF and launch an offensive at defeating OLA.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

In particular, there's no viable solution for Addis Ababa in the event of a break-up - it's in Oromia, but around half the population are Amhara and there are significant minorities from most of Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.

The Amharas will inherit the central state incl. the capital. Any Oromo state will be significantly smaller than the current (rather sprawling) Oromia.

The spark for the Oromo protest movement was the planned expansion of the Addis capital region into Oromia. So good luck with that.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't get the romanticism of wanting to keep Ethiopia on life support, outside of the fact that the communities will have to co-operate in a post-Ethiopian society. Democracy in Ethiopia first has to be built at the very local level from what I can see, because every time a centralising force comes, even if it claims to want to decentralise like the TPLF did, delusions of grandeur invoking Menelik or Selassie seem to take over.

Pretty sure most Ethiopians don't actually want to see the breakup of their country, so talking about democracy at the same time as partition and ethnic balkanisation is kind of weird.

More broadly, supranational empires dissolving into nation-states has the nasty tendency to immense human suffering. In Europe it cost us tens of millions of deaths in multiple genocides and the two most destructive wars in human history. The amount of ethnic cleansing it would take to divide Ethiopia into nice and tidy European-style nation-states would be not good.

In particular, there's no viable solution for Addis Ababa in the event of a break-up - it's in Oromia, but around half the population are Amhara and there are significant minorities from most of Ethiopia's major ethnic groups.

The Amharas will inherit the central state incl. the capital. Any Oromo state will be significantly smaller than the current (rather sprawling) Oromia.

The spark for the Oromo protest movement was the planned expansion of the Addis capital region into Oromia. So good luck with that.

I don't see any realistic scenario for a Balkanisation of Ethiopia where the Oromos won't be ethnically cleansed and end up among the major losers.

[WMS]

ENDF is operating drones from UAE, Turkey, and PRC.  UAE and Turkey seem to be directly operating those drones while PRC drones are being operated by UAE military personnel who were trained on how to operate PRC drones.

Well, look at which countries are snuggled up together in Ethiopia. In apparent opposition to U.S. foreign policy. The UAE certainly seems to take an independent line in foreign policy!

[jaichind]

ENDF is operating drones from UAE, Turkey, and PRC.  UAE and Turkey seem to be directly operating those drones while PRC drones are being operated by UAE military personnel who were trained on how to operate PRC drones.

Well, look at which countries are snuggled up together in Ethiopia. In apparent opposition to U.S. foreign policy. The UAE certainly seems to take an independent line in foreign policy!

Not clear why UAE is in there.   In fact UAE uses by itself a lot of PRC drones for its own use and have been helping ENDF operate the PRC drones that PRC has given to ENDF.  Also Iran is also helping ENDF and are operating some Iran drones in behalf of ENDF.  So within the Middle east Muslim world the 3 main groups (Turks, Iranian and Arab) are represented in terms of those state helping ENDF.

[PSOL]

ENDF is operating drones from UAE, Turkey, and PRC.  UAE and Turkey seem to be directly operating those drones while PRC drones are being operated by UAE military personnel who were trained on how to operate PRC drones.

Well, look at which countries are snuggled up together in Ethiopia. In apparent opposition to U.S. foreign policy. The UAE certainly seems to take an independent line in foreign policy!

Not clear why UAE is in there.   In fact UAE uses by itself a lot of PRC drones for its own use and have been helping ENDF operate the PRC drones that PRC has given to ENDF.  Also Iran is also helping ENDF and are operating some Iran drones in behalf of ENDF.  So within the Middle east Muslim world the 3 main groups (Turks, Iranian and Arab) are represented in terms of those state helping ENDF.

Do you have sources.

Given the US-backing of the TPLF, that may be an explanation.

[jaichind]

Do you have sources.

Given the US-backing of the TPLF, that may be an explanation.

UAE
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/12/the-uae-joins-tigray-war-emirati-wing.html

PRC
https://paxforpeace.nl/news/blogs/ethiopia-now-confirmed-to-fly-chinese-armed-drones

Turkey
https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-and-southern-africa_diplomacy/2021/11/15/addis-set-to-deploy-turkish-combat-drones-against-tigray-rebels--offensive,109704605-art

Iran
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/08/25/ethiopia-iranian-drones-tigray/

[jaichind]

It seems instead of trying to take Weldiya from the South the ENDF is trying to cut off the TPLF forces in Weldiya by attacking the flank of the TPLF position and cutting them off from Tigray by cutting off the A2 highway behind Weldiya.    If ENDF can pull this off then TPLF will have to retreat through the mountains to get back to Tigray with drones harassing them throughout.