Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s looking like things are spiraling out of control. A regional war of Eritrea and Ethiopia vs Sudan and Egypt might start.

Well, those two on the same side would be a contrast to recently.

[PSOL]

It’s looking like things are spiraling out of control. A regional war of Eritrea and Ethiopia vs Sudan and Egypt might start.

Well, those two on the same side would be a contrast to recently.

I mean, not since the peace deal between the two has their relationship been sour.

[jaichind]

The TPLF relationship with EPLF of Eretria is very interesting.  When TPLF was founded in the late 1970s it was just a bunch of college students running around in the mountains. It was EPLF that provided them with funding, training and weapons in the early 1980s that got TPLF to become an viable insurgent organization.   Then TPLF helped EPLF to wipe out its rival ELF before the two organizations turned on Derg.  There must have been a deal between TPLF and EPLF that once they defeat the Derg regime which they did in 1991 that TPLF will back Eretria independence under EPLF while EPLF will support TPLF to take over the rest of Ethiopia.  I guess later on TPLF regretted this move since it left TPLF controlled  Ethiopia without any access to the Ocean and then TPLF and EPLF turned on each other which I guess now is still ongoing.

[GlobeSoc]

It’s looking like things are spiraling out of control. A regional war of Eritrea and Ethiopia vs Sudan and Egypt might start.

Does this scenario look plausible, or is it likely?

[PSOL]

It’s looking like things are spiraling out of control. A regional war of Eritrea and Ethiopia vs Sudan and Egypt might start.

Does this scenario look plausible, or is it likely?

I’ll let you decide. The elections for this year have been postponed as well.

[PSOL]

At least 750 have been killed in a massacre according to EERP. They were taking refuge in a church too.

The brutality will only strengthen the insurgency and no number of Eritrean troops will change that. Ethiopia is in for a long, senseless war by Ahmed’s doing. I’d be surprised if Ethiopia didn’t enter a complete civil war in Ogaden and Oromia.

[PSOL]

More examples of the Ethnic Cleansing tactics in the Tigraynia region

Meanwhile Ethiopian and Eritrean militias and conventional forces have so far failed in beating down the insurgency in the countryside.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

More examples of the Ethnic Cleansing tactics in the Tigraynia region

Meanwhile Ethiopian and Eritrean militias and conventional forces have so far failed in beating down the insurgency in the countryside.

Didn't this war start as non-particularly-moralized ethnic power politics, with Tigray as arguably in the wrong due to being the justly-deposed former regime? It's astounding how quickly Abiy and Isaias's brutality has transmuted it from that into the old story of oppressor and occupied.

[It’s so Joever]

More examples of the Ethnic Cleansing tactics in the Tigraynia region

Meanwhile Ethiopian and Eritrean militias and conventional forces have so far failed in beating down the insurgency in the countryside.

Didn't this war start as non-particularly-moralized ethnic power politics, with Tigray as arguably in the wrong due to being the justly-deposed former regime? It's astounding how quickly Abiy and Isaias's brutality has transmuted it from that into the old story of oppressor and occupied.

That’s why one should avoid looking at foreign policy struggles in right vs wrong terms.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

More examples of the Ethnic Cleansing tactics in the Tigraynia region

Meanwhile Ethiopian and Eritrean militias and conventional forces have so far failed in beating down the insurgency in the countryside.

Didn't this war start as non-particularly-moralized ethnic power politics, with Tigray as arguably in the wrong due to being the justly-deposed former regime? It's astounding how quickly Abiy and Isaias's brutality has transmuted it from that into the old story of oppressor and occupied.

That’s why one should avoid looking at foreign policy struggles in right vs wrong terms.

That isn't really something I need to be lectured on in this case. I didn't share the Ethiopian regime's "Tigrayans Bad, Other Ethnic Groups Good" interpretation when the war started. I'm just remarking that there's a clear element of oppression or even genocide to this now when initially it was "just" an ethnic power struggle.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/28/ethiopia-tigray-mekele-control/

"Rebel forces in Tigray claim to have regained control of the embattled Ethiopian region’s capital"

After months of the Ethiopian government claiming that TPLF is almost finished it seems TPLF have recaptured Tigray capital of Mekele.

In the meantime the Ethiopian government have declared a ceasefire.  Seems like a rerun of the First Chechen War of 1994-1996.

[PSOL]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/28/ethiopia-tigray-mekele-control/

"Rebel forces in Tigray claim to have regained control of the embattled Ethiopian region’s capital"

After months of the Ethiopian government claiming that TPLF is almost finished it seems TPLF have recaptured Tigray capital of Mekele.

In the meantime the Ethiopian government have declared a ceasefire.  Seems like a rerun of the First Chechen War of 1994-1996.

Ethiopia seems much more at risk of total collapse than Russia then, given that for security purposes it requires Eritrean troops to be deployed across the nation to maintain government stability.

The longer the war goes without clear success, the more likely other flair-ups across Ethiopia leads to the entire country falling apart. Failure to even transition to a frozen conflict is probably not viable for Ethiopia’s being.

[GlobeSoc]

Shades of Yugoslavia?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ethiopia seems much more at risk of total collapse than Russia then, given that for security purposes it requires Eritrean troops to be deployed across the nation to maintain government stability.

This is itself suggestive considering how much smaller Eritrea is than Ethiopia. (Nobody knows quite how many people live in Eritrea because Isaias has literally never conducted a census, but at most there are about seven million, to Ethiopia's hundred-plus million.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Shades of Yugoslavia?

Ethiopia has effectively fallen apart before (the "Age Of Princes")

[jaichind]

It seems what took place was was the significant part of the Ethiopian forces (3 divisions) were destroyed in an ambush in the hill areas North of Mekele.



This seems to be a classical partisan strategy of luring a motorized force into a hilly area where motorization became a liability and in an ambush a non-motorized force is able to surround and destroy a motorized force.  The TPLF was then was to push quickly to surround cities like Mekele and Adigart.  The Ethiopian  forces there  were cut off and with no supplies had to try to break out and were destroyed in turn through ambushes.

This seems like a rerun on how the ROC armed forces were defeated by the PLA in the 1945-1949 Civil war.  The battle in the hills North of Mekele seems like a rerun of the decisive battle of Menglianggu in in May 1947 where an elite motorized ROC force was surrounded by the PLA in an ambush in hilly areas where the motorized nature of the elite ROC force became an liability.

 

Of course this war is not over.  There are still large number of Amhara militias who have their own beef with the Tigraians to be mobilized and perhaps be part of a second wind of an future Ethiopian offensive half an year from now.  Also for now   Ethiopian army still controls the Sudan-Tigray border which still means that TPFA are still boxed in by  Ethiopian army and Eretria.

[Logical]

TPLF victory parade. Thousands of Ethiopian POWs marched through. Looks like something out of WWII. Notice the presence of child soldiers among the crowd.
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/africa/100000007848345/ethiopia-prisoners-marched-tigray-mekelle.html

[jaichind]

TPLF victory parade. Thousands of Ethiopian POWs marched through. Looks like something out of WWII. Notice the presence of child soldiers among the crowd.
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/africa/100000007848345/ethiopia-prisoners-marched-tigray-mekelle.html

Yeah.  I think they are trying to copy the march of the German soldiers captured from the Battle of Minsk through Moscow in July 1944

[jaichind]

Despite the unilateral "ceasefire" by the Ethiopian armed forces, the TPLF seems to be lunching offensives in Western Tigray to open a link to the Sudan border.  If they managed to do that and allow TPFA to get military supplies from Sudan then that would cut off a military solution to the conflict for the foreseeable future.

[Frodo]

And to think I was considering visiting Ethiopia a couple of years ago….

[NewYorkExpress]

The United States is accusing Eithopia of blocking food aid to Tigray.

The US international development agency has blamed the Ethiopian government for a shortage of humanitarian aid in the country's conflict-torn Tigray region.

USAID accused the government of "obstructing" access to Tigray, as it warned that food aid was set to run out this week for the first time.

Hundreds of thousands of people are at risk of famine amid the conflict between government and rebel forces.

Ethiopia has denied "purposely" blocking aid.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's spokeswoman told reporters that the government was allowing aid convoys to enter Tigray, but that security was a "priority that cannot be compromised".

"It is a volatile area so... there [are] going to be continuous checks and processes," said Billene Seyoum.


In her statement, USAID chief Samantha Power described the flow of humanitarian assistance into the northern region as "woefully insufficient".

She said food warehouses were "virtually empty" and that aid workers would soon have nothing to distribute.

"This shortage is not because food is unavailable, but because the Ethiopian government is obstructing humanitarian aid and personnel, including land convoys and air access," she said.

[WMS]

The Tigrayans are actually winning their war, albeit at a horrifying civilian cost. Personally, if they actually pull off defeating Eritrea down the line I would be cheering.

[NewYorkExpress]

So, the Tigray reigion is desecending into famine. EIthopia's response is to expel UN humanitarian officials who would be responsible for getting the residents there aid.

The United Nations has rebuffed Ethiopia's decision to expel seven senior UN officials as the country's war-torn northern Tigray region descends into famine, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday.

Ethiopia declared the officials, who are responsible for coordinating critical humanitarian assistance, "persona non grata" on Thursday, just days after the UN's aid chief warned that hundreds of thousands of people were starving due to the government's blockade of aid deliveries.

Guterres told the President of the UN Security Council on Friday -- in a letter seen by CNN -- that the UN would push Ethiopia "to permit these critical UN staff to resume their functions in Ethiopia and grant them the necessary visas."

"If the current trajectory continues, I fear for the future of many Ethiopian lives, and indeed for the stability of the country and the region. Political dialogue and a ceasefire are urgently needed. It is still not too late to take steps to improve the situation, and I urge Council members to support efforts in that regard," Guterres said.

But an emergency UN Security Council meeting held behind closed doors on Friday ended without reaching any formal agreement on how to respond to the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia or the government's decision to expel senior UN officials, a UN diplomatic source told CNN.

"This is a turning point, not just in this conflict, but for how the world responds to conflicts and humanitarian crises around the world. The UN needs to be strong, and they must have the absolute backing of the Security Council, influential leaders in the region, and the entire international community," the UN diplomat told CNN.

Among those ordered out of Ethiopia are officials from the UN's Children Fund (UNICEF) and UN Office of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), organizations coordinating aid to the region, which has been racked by war with the Ethiopian government for nearly a year.

UNOCHA has frequently detailed government actions that have obstructed humanitarian aid delivery in Tigray, and UNOCHA chief Martin Griffiths has toughened his stance on Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.

[NewYorkExpress]

The United States has threatened to sanction Ethiopia after a report came out that Ethiopian Airlines shuttled weapons to Eritrea.

The Biden administration has described a CNN report that Ethiopian Airlines shuttled weapons to Eritrea as "incredibly grave" and warned that it was prepared to impose sanctions on Ethiopia and any other parties who prolonged the conflict in Tigray.

On Wednesday CNN revealed that Ethiopia's government used its state-owned commercial carrier to move weapons to and from neighboring Eritrea during the first weeks of the conflict. It is the first time this weapons trade between the former foes has been documented during the nearly year-long war in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region.

Reacting to the investigation, a senior US administration official said: "These allegations are incredibly grave; not only could they constitute a potential violation of the Chicago Convention [on international civil aviation]. The use of civilian aircraft to ferry military hardware upends norms and endangers passenger craft around the world."

The official added that the US would not hold back from using all the tools at its disposal to put an end to a conflict that has triggered famine and left millions in desperate need of aid -- including the sanctioning of officials responsible for drawing out the conflict.

"We have the ability to impose sanctions and are prepared to use them and other tools at our disposal against those prolonging the tragedy in Tigray," the official said.

A separate senior administration official told CNN that the White House was looking into the allegations detailed in its report. "If true, they would be deeply concerning, as Ethiopia is seriously risking the reputation of its national airline by enlisting it in military operations that have unleashed one of the world's worst humanitarian crises," the source said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/06/africa/ethiopian-airlines-investigation-tigray-war-intl-cmd/index.html

Ethiopia's government has used the country's flagship commercial airline to shuttle weapons to and from neighboring Eritrea during the civil war in Ethiopia's Tigray region, a CNN investigation has found.

Cargo documents and manifests seen by CNN, as well as eyewitness accounts and photographic evidence, confirm that arms were transported between Addis Ababa's international airport and airports in the Eritrean cities of Asmara and Massawa on board multiple Ethiopian Airlines planes in November 2020 during the first few weeks of the Tigray conflict.

It's the first time this weapons trade between the former foes has been documented during the war. Experts said the flights would constitute a violation of international aviation law, which forbids the smuggling of arms for military use on civil aircraft.

Atrocities committed during the conflict also appear to violate the terms of a trade program that provides lucrative access to the United States market and which Ethiopian Airlines has benefited greatly from.

Ethiopian Airlines is a state-owned economic powerhouse that generates billions of dollars a year carrying passengers to hubs across the African continent and all over the world, and it is also a member of the Star Alliance, a group of some of the world's top aviation companies.
The airline previously issued two denials about transporting weapons.

Responding to CNN's latest investigation, Ethiopian Airlines said it "strictly complies with all National, regional and International aviation related regulations" and that "to the best of its knowledge and its records, it has not transported any war armament in any of its routes by any of its Aircraft."

The governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea did not respond to CNN's requests for comment.

[NewYorkExpress]

Ethiopia goes on the offensive in the Tigray region.

Tigray forces say Ethiopia’s government has launched its threatened major military offensive against them in an attempt to end a nearly year-old war.

A statement from the Tigray external affairs office alleged that hundreds of thousands of Ethiopian “regular and irregular fighters” launched a coordinated assault on several fronts. It blamed Ethiopian forces and those from the country’s Amhara region, where much of the recent fighting has occurred after Tigray forces retook much of their own region in June.

The Tigray statement, which also alleged airstrikes, drone strikes and bombardments by heavy artillery, could not immediately be confirmed amid communications cuts in areas of fighting.

In a statement to The Associated Press, the spokeswoman for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Billene Seyoum, said only that “the government of Ethiopia will continue to counter the (Tigray forces’) destruction, violence and killings in the Amhara region and elsewhere.”


The new offensive has shattered a cease-fire that Ethiopia’s government declared in June as its forces retreated from Tigray, where it had been pursuing the Tigray leaders who had dominated the national government for 27 years before Abiy took office and sidelined them.