Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[CumbrianLefty]

What's the odds on this peace deal lasting? Maybe not so great.

[jaichind]

What's the odds on this peace deal lasting? Maybe not so great.

My guess is this deal will lead to a split in TPLF with a radical faction containing partisan warfare with a more moderate faction trying the non-military line and working within the Ethiopian structure.

[jaichind]

ENDF and TPLF representatives meet in Kenya to discuss disarmament and integration of TPLF forces into ENDF.  It seems to be going fairly well.

In the meantime OLA is going on a large offense and have capture an entire district in Western Oromia.  It seems they plan to capture as much territories as possible before ENDF shifts over forces from Tigray to deal with them.

[jaichind]

With the Tigray war winding down for now it seems the ENDF is now shifting their drone force toward attacking the surging OLA.

[jaichind]

TPLF insists that TPLF will disarm only after the Eritrea military and Amhara militias withdraw from Tigray.  So far no signs that the Eritrea military is pulling out on any scale. Same for Amhara militias.  I guess we are headed toward the "I will do it if you do it first" stalemate.  The main issue here is ENDF needs to occupy completely Tigray and then in theory Eritrea's military and Amhara militias can withdraw.  But ENDF needs to be in the South to fight OLA so they are subcontracting their work in Tigray to  Eritrea's military and Amhara militias.

[jaichind]

Eritrea military and Amhara militias refuse to withdraw from Tigray until TPLF disarms.  Deadlock.

[jaichind]

https://qz.com/power-is-back-in-tigray-after-22-months-1849868033

"Electricity is back in Tigray after a two year blackout"

[jaichind]

It seems TPLF will give up all heavy weapons later this week.  In the meantime, direct flights from Addis Ababa to Mekelle is about to resume.  It seems Abiy Ahmed did it.  He won the war, at least against TPLF.  His war against OLA of course continues.

[jaichind]

OLA recently has been making advances in Eastern Amhara.  In fact, they are now fighting ENDF forces in places very close to where TPLF was fighting ENDF back in Nov-Dec 2021. The timing was off between TPLF and OLA.  ENDF would be in big trouble if OLA and TPLF made a juncture in Eastern Amhara. 

As it is in Tigray the war is over with Eritrean forces pulling out of Tigray and ENDF having a presence in all key cities with TPLF mostly disarmed of heavy weapons.

On the other hand, the OLA war is heating up fast.

[PSOL]

Any news on the peace deal between the OLA and Ethiopian state? Have all militant groups made peace Jaichind?

[PSOL]

The OLA is the last major group still fighting the Ethiopian government, meanwhile the government consolidates control

[PSOL]

The Ethiopian government are fighting their former fascist allies, the Fano. Without the work of Eritrea they are embarrassing themselves by barely making progress against them.