2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[NYSforKennedy2024]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win. PA and FL appear inconsequential.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

[It’s so Joever]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

This sounds like the language of a campaign which is losing Florida and Pennsylvania.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/FSURich/status/1323690076266762240

[swf541]

I see the DOOM posting hast returned

[Pollster]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

This sounds like the language of a campaign which is losing Florida and Pennsylvania.

That, or a campaign with a very basic understanding of the electoral map.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/FSURich/status/1323690076266762240

Anyone got details on Leon county?

[NYSforKennedy2024]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

This sounds like the language of a campaign which is losing Florida and Pennsylvania.

FL, maybe? But I really haven't seen anything yet that makes me worried about PA.

[Hnv1]

So the accumulative overall for Florida atm is? (EV+BVM+today)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/FSURich/status/1323690076266762240

Nice

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/FSURich/status/1323690076266762240

Nice

That’s Tallahassee. It’s going D. By a lot.

[ultraviolet]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

This sounds like the language of a campaign which is losing Florida and Pennsylvania.

Lol. You sound like someone who will be losing a lot of money on PredictIt

[Xing]

Welp, I guess I've seen enough. I'm rescinding my FL call for Trump, and calling it for Biden.

Rating change:
FL: Titanium Tilt R -> Titanium Tilt D

[Non Swing Voter]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

[Panda Express]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

With the current numbers, he would need to WIN the NPA voters to have a shot.

[new_patomic]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

With the current numbers, he would need to WIN the NPA voters to have a shot.

It's not that bad, I think?

As long as there are few cross-over votes.

[Hope For A New Era]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

Appears Guam has a similar pro-incumbent bias that Hawaii also has.

I love that memes that were born here, what, 16 years ago are still going strong.

The memes deserve their accolades

[Woody]

Alright. Arizona and Florida looks mostly to be in the bag for Trump. Now what he has to worry about is Pennsylvania.

[swf541]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

With the current numbers, he would need to WIN the NPA voters to have a shot.

It's not that bad, I think?

As long as there are few cross-over votes.

Polling consistently showed a decent share more crossover to Biden then to Trump

[Illini Moderate]

Alright. Arizona and Florida looks mostly to be in the bag for Trump. Now what he has to worry about is Pennsylvania.

Nothing is “in the bag” for anyone

[Holmes]

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

[Hammy]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

[Orwell]

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

I read somewhere, but I'm not sure of the validity. That 16% in Sumter county Republicans voted for Biden compared to 10% Dems for Trump.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

Appears Guam has a similar pro-incumbent bias that Hawaii also has.

I love that memes that were born here, what, 16 years ago are still going strong.

The memes deserve their accolades

All hail mypalfish for creating the longest-running meme on Atlas.

[RI]

Trump probably needs to lose the FL NPA vote by no more than 5 points to have a shot. Lost them by 1.5 points in 2016.

With the current numbers, he would need to WIN the NPA voters to have a shot.

No? Unless there's a large relative R defection to Biden relative to the D defection to Trump.

[Young Conservative]

GOP Florida Turnout advantage at the end of early voting was around -129,000

2:41 Pm update: +133,11 (not including a few counties that manually report including Miami-Dade
In Miami, Dems entered today with 40.7% of votes cast being Democrats, 30.7% Republicans.
Today, 35% Dems, 31% republicans.

GOP outperforming 2016 turnout in wwc areas and latinx areas and Dems doing well in Suburbia, especially Seminole.