2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[redjohn]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

[7,052,770]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

[Hammy]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Day has been flying by.  Some five hours before the polls close in KY.  

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323685103793590273?s=20

Raw vote growth % between those reports:

R + 34%
D  +38%
NPA +42%

Not saying it means anything, but the pace seems favourable for the Democrats.

[roxas11]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

Im not even sure what numbers you are even talking about

[Splash]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

Oh, this is just getting started! Wait until the first batch of exit polls - some probably fake - are circulated on Twitter around 4-5PM EST. Then people will start misconstruing those to fit their preconceived narratives too!  

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

[swf541]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

I have written a long elaboration as have others

GOP needs a much larger margin then what they last have that i've seen and their rate of growth seems to have significantly dropped

That said no one should be over reading into any of these reports.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

Oh, this is just getting started! Wait until the first batch of exit polls - some probably fake - are circulated on Twitter around 4-5PM EST. Then people will start misconstruing those to fit their preconceived narratives too!  

"Damn, Biden's losing the Victoria's Secret employee vote.  Not trying to be pessimistic but this is bad."  

[YE]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

I mean you aren’t wrong but what you are saying is expected.

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1323658193319448576

[7,052,770]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they're not on pace, and they've probably had their biggest bump of the day already.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

[Non Swing Voter]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they've probably had their biggest bump of the day.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

Where does the 400k number come from?  I agree that it's highly unlikely they end up 400k at this rate but why are you sure they need that much of a cushion??

[Baki]

Trump just pulled together all his genius in one moment to conclude:

"Winning is easy, losing is hard."

[Non Swing Voter]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

[The Legend]

There's also going to be more mail ballots turned in throughout the day too...

[Non Swing Voter]

Trump just pulled together all his genius in one moment to conclude:

"Winning is easy, losing is hard."

What was that little Arlington gathering about?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump just pulled together all his genius in one moment to conclude:

"Winning is easy, losing is hard."

Huh.  That's strangely...cogent for Trump.  

[7,052,770]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they've probably had their biggest bump of the day.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

Where does the 400k number come from?  I agree that it's highly unlikely they end up 400k at this rate but why are you sure they need that much of a cushion??

I'm relying on others. I'm certainly not qualified to come up with that number myself.

[ExSky]

i'm LOVING the complete contradictory takes on turnout, it's hilarious. People, we have no idea who's leading based on these turnout numbers! Both sides need to chill out.

My reasons for being fairly confident have been laid out. Let’s wait and see but I suspect I’m gonna be cheering this evening

What are you confident about again? 

Biden taking Florida

Can you give a 2 sentence summary of why you think that's going to happen?  

My explanation is on the previous page but the two main points are that the R ballot lead is not growing anywhere near fast enough and a conservative estimate on NPAs breaking for
Biden gets him across the line.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So....who the numbers look good for so far?

[ExSky]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they've probably had their biggest bump of the day.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

Where does the 400k number come from?  I agree that it's highly unlikely they end up 400k at this rate but why are you sure they need that much of a cushion??

I'm relying on others. I'm certainly not qualified to come up with that number myself.

The number I believe relies on long established polling showing NPAs Breaking to Biden comfortably and the number of R>D voters being more numerous than the opposite.