2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[new_patomic]

Ralston here to tell us absolutely nothing

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1323710621133594625?s=20

[YE]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

[Holmes]

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

I read somewhere, but I'm not sure of the validity. That 16% in Sumter county Republicans voted for Biden compared to 10% Dems for Trump.

I think those numbers were actually from St. Pete’s Pinellas poll they just released and tbh, 10% and 16% both seem a little high.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I mean, I don't know what to make of all the data. All I will say is that if Trump wins re-election, it's time to stop polling these races.

[Crumpets]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

Guam update (73% partially reporting, 19k total votes): marginal improvement for Biden to 55.8, Trump at 41.4.

Appears Guam has a similar pro-incumbent bias that Hawaii also has.

I love that memes that were born here, what, 16 years ago are still going strong.

The memes deserve their accolades

All hail mypalfish for creating the longest-running meme on Atlas.

Heck, for 2004, they probably have a reasonable claim to creating one of the first politics-based memes anywhere on the internet.

[Del Tachi]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

[Ljube]

Any data from Pennsylvania?

Biden in Philadelphia. Looks like he is concerned.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

I was under the impression that Democrats usually constituted a greater portion of the after-work voters, but I can't say if that's (a) even a thing and/or (b) even a thing in Florida.  

[RI]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

[BudgieForce]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

I was under the impression that Democrats usually constituted a greater portion of the after-work voters, but I can't say if that's (a) even a thing and/or (b) even a thing in Florida.  

I've also always been under the impression "after work" voting favored democrats.

[YE]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

It is and I expected this to happen but the question was why the forum wasn’t dooming as much as an hour ago so I answered.

[Red Wall]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win. PA and FL appear inconsequential.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

https://twitter.com/Mark_Derr/status/1323669988927021056?s=19

[Rep Jessica]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

[roxas11]

Any data from Pennsylvania?

Biden in Philadelphia. Looks like he is concerned.

I dont know about data but people in Trump campaign have been talking like they have already lost the state lol

[new_patomic]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Florida R turnout is slowing down relative to D’s as the day progresses.

I mean, isn't this somewhat expected?  Turnout isn't steady across the day, and the GOP was always going to make up the most in the "after work" 4-6pm voters.

I was under the impression that Democrats usually constituted a greater portion of the after-work voters, but I can't say if that's (a) even a thing and/or (b) even a thing in Florida.  

That was my impression.

Though I suppose it might be a bit flipped this year, given Democrats are doing relatively stronger with senior voters who vote in the morning.

[Splash]

Any data from Pennsylvania?

Biden in Philadelphia. Looks like he is concerned.

Anecdotal reporting of the Trump campaign having trouble turning out their voters but no hard numbers.

[Non Swing Voter]

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

I read somewhere, but I'm not sure of the validity. That 16% in Sumter county Republicans voted for Biden compared to 10% Dems for Trump.

If that's true then Trump has no chance of winning most of the swing states.

[Person Man]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

That’s not that good out west

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

My apologies if already posted, but seems that JOMD and the team are projecting a good amount of confidence in early numbers in relation to how many paths they've built for Joe.

If I'm pulling for Joe I'd keep an eye on AZ + GA + TX + OH + IA + NV + MI + WI. Seems like these, though not all are equally important, will be the keys to a win. PA and FL appear inconsequential.

https://twitter.com/CharlotteAlter/status/1323666259993649157

https://twitter.com/Mark_Derr/status/1323669988927021056?s=19

Hold on, does this guy think Biden’s not going to win Hispanics? I’m confused as to how this...”chart” works.

[ExSky]

looks like those +4/5 Florida Biden polls are gonna be money

[Orwell]

Another big question mark in Florida now is the crossover votes. It’s being hyped up that Biden is getting a nice amount of crossover votes from senior Republican voters so we’ll have to wait and see on that. I also personally believe there will be less Democratic crossover votes for Trump this year because a lot of Dixiecrats have changed their registrations to Republican since 2016.

I read somewhere, but I'm not sure of the validity. That 16% in Sumter county Republicans voted for Biden compared to 10% Dems for Trump.

If that's true then Trump has no chance of winning most of the swing states.

Well, that's Sumter county (The Villages) so the higher D->R can be attributed to elderly voters switching.

[JerryArkansas]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

Tell that to Martha McSally who lost in 2018 with better numbers for her than that in Arizona.

[ultraviolet]

There's like 10 conflicting reads of the data here but it sounds less DOOMERY than an hour ago.  Must mean the numbers are looking better for Biden.

For me I just need some idea of what this or that statistic that's being dropped means as this is the first time I've watched the election day vote and it gets aggravating when I'm told to just read 25 pages as if I have the time to do that rather than a quick explanation

Maybe I’ll make a doomery tracker: number of doom posts on the last 5 pages

Edit: excluding R partisans, only 2 (this includes the joeisdone.github post)

[Pollster]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

I hope throughout this election night and the future we can be more respectful of our fellow posters on this board.

[Bootes Void]

AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

R 1,025,991 (+42,204)
D   983,787
O   711,727

I think Trump takes Florida and Arizona tonight. I am a little worried about the rust belt and North Carolina but it will be a lot closer then the rats think.

That’s not that good out west

For who? For Biden's it look good