2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/joeyhbanks/status/1323695024253636609
might be slowing down

So adjusting for Sarasota, you’re under 20k/hr for the GOP now

Is Sarasota dem or gop friendly?

 GOP wins it

 Trump won it by 27k in 2016, Romney by 15k in 2012.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Vote still left in Florida(maybe not including Miami Dade and a few counties)
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323696323766398976

This is good for Biden, so far.

[psychprofessor]

everything across the board is looking good for biden

[OSR stands with Israel]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

[Tekken_Guy]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

Because Bush was actually quite popular. The race was always considered a toss-up.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Despite being a pessimist at heart, I have a hard time seeing massive turnout numbers like these possibly being bad for Uncle Joe. Why would millions of normally disengaged voters suddenly turn out for the orange clown? It would make basically zero sense. You would have to think that a majority of these people are showing up to get rid of him.

Ehh thats not always true, as remember turnout in 2004 also a massive increase from 2000 and many people thought it would be good for Kerry as why would so many new voters come out to vote for the status quo. Turned out that while Kerry did get 8 million more votes than Gore did , it didnt matter as Bush got 12 million more votes in 2004 than he did in 2000

Bush wasn’t that toxic yet though and nowhere near as toxic as Trump is now so I wouldn’t make the comparison

[new_patomic]

People are right that this doesn't tell us anything about margin.

But it's a not stretch to realize that, generally, Trump would probably prefer an electorate that is more Republican than not. If his magic number is actually R+4 can be debatable, but the closer it is to even the more you have to assume that for him to win he's either not losing independents (by much) or is not leaking cross-over votes.

[Holmes]

I just think the biggest question mark in Florida is Miami-Dade. If Dems are performing well there in the ED vote, I would say Biden is favored. It’s very annoying that they don’t report turnout like most other counties.

Another big question mark is will Dems improve their turnout as the day goes by and voters become less old and more young and voters leave work to go to the polls?

[American2020]

I suppose most NPA's will vote for Biden.

[swf541]

I just think the biggest question mark in Florida is Miami-Dade. If Dems are performing well there in the ED vote, I would say Biden is favored. It’s very annoying that they don’t report turnout like most other counties.

Another big question mark is will Dems improve their turnout as the day goes by and voters become less old and more young and voters leave work to go to the polls?

100% this

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

For the poster asking about Sarasota (I'm sorry, I totally forget who it was): the county hasn't been shy about giving a good chunk of its votes to a Democrat.  

Even though no Democrat has won it since 1944, Obama lost the county by around 8% (2012) and 0.10% (2008).  Clinton lost it by 4% (1996) and 8% (1992).  

It's a hard-GOP county, but not necessarily by staggeringly large margins.  

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Per CNN: Trump indicates that he doesn’t have a victory speech or concession speech prepared.

[swf541]

For the poster asking about Sarasota (I'm sorry, I totally forget who it was): the county hasn't been shy about giving a good chunk of its votes to a Democrat.  

Even though no Democrat has won it since 1944, Obama lost the county by around 8% (2012) and 0.10% (2008).  Clinton lost it by 4% (1996) and 8% (1992).  

It's a hard-GOP county, but not necessarily by staggeringly large margins.  

It was me and thanks as well

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1323688532452483074

[YE]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1323699029818171392?s=21

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

No one knows for sure, and we won't until we actually see the results. This whole thread is just speculation, at this point.

I still remember the gold standard Atlas opinion well into election day 2016 was that there were record breaking lines in Philadelphia and Trump was going to get crushed. It's definitely easy to read way too much into early numbers and speculation.

At risk of breaking that, though, I think there's one factor in Florida I think people are missing regarding independents: while the early voting independents definitely leaned Biden, by most indications the election day independents will favour Trump. The math around how big a lead Republicans need to overcome the EV Indie lead Biden built up will change pretty drastically if there's significant turnout among independents today.

[Holmes]

Another thing I’m thinking, not that it makes a difference in the end, but Republican voters for Biden have probably mostly all voted early or VBM already. I expect most of these Republicans voting now on ED are solid Trump voters.

[OBD]

https://twitter.com/will_doran/status/1323699029818171392?s=21

Oof - so no NC results till 8:15 eastern?

[Bootes Void]

Purple County, this might be a bellweather to who wins Florida
https://twitter.com/DavidGoodhue/status/1323691508126633985

[limac333]

Per CNN: Trump indicates that he doesn’t have a victory speech or concession speech prepared.

He's going to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.

[new_patomic]

Wasn't the EV for Republicans pretty good in Miami-Dade?

Would be hard to imagine that didn't cannibalize quite a bit of their ED vote.

[ultraviolet]

Per CNN: Trump indicates that he doesn’t have a victory speech or concession speech prepared.

Didn’t Trump not have either in 2016? And Hillary didn’t have a concession speech too

[President Johnson]

Per CNN: Trump indicates that he doesn’t have a victory speech or concession speech prepared.

As if he sticks to the script either way, lmao.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/PoliticusSarah/status/1323688532452483074

Shouldn’t have waited to GOTV on Election Day during a global pandemic.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So are these Florida numbers good or no?

No one knows for sure, and we won't until we actually see the results. This whole thread is just speculation, at this point.

I still remember the gold standard Atlas opinion well into election day 2016 was that there were record breaking lines in Philadelphia and Trump was going to get crushed. It's definitely easy to read way too much into early numbers and speculation.

At risk of breaking that, though, I think there's one factor in Florida I think people are missing regarding independents: while the early voting independents definitely leaned Biden, by most indications the election day independents will favour Trump. The math around how big a lead Republicans need to overcome the EV Indie lead Biden built up will change pretty drastically if there's significant turnout among independents today.

Based on what?