IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[lfromnj]

Have they always had the "Don't want to tell (Already Voted only)" option in the past? The amount there (5% in the Presidential race and 4% in the Senate race) almost 100% explains the support that both Biden and Greenfield lost from the September poll.

I think at least some of Biden’s support is hidden in the “Don’t want to tell (Already Voted only).” Trump so probably still up, but not this much.

Shy Trump voter to Shy Biden voter theory?

Well there are some shy voters, guess we find out on Tuesday.

[CityofSinners]

This is the ultimate test for Selzer. Either she is the most godlike pollster in the country or even she can miss. 

[Senator Spark]

The Gold Standard. Now that you are seeing what I have all along I'd like to let you see a great sight of an amazing President who will keep winning for the American people.

If Republicans are truly winning, why are they trying to have votes tossed in PA and TX through court intervention?

There most likely will be a legal challenge in PA.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322693838985666560

[soundchaser]

Gonna be great when the ABC/WAPO poll dropping at midnight has Biden up like 12 nationally.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322688218697998338?s=20

Contented Indie with all due respect.. is a complete idiot.

I've seen him claim that Montana is a tossup, and that Biden would come within 10 points in WV. lmao.

I don't think he ever said within 10 in WV.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1272192627933360129

This was also when the South was in the midst of its major COVID outbreak, the nation was still hot-blooded over George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, Trump pulled his tear-gassing stunt in front of that Episcopal chapel, and unemployment was still rising.

It was reasonable to believe at that time that Trump could lose a LOT of ground.

Hmm.. so you deny that he said WV would be within 10 points, and when the tweet is provided to you.. you attempt to justify it..

I can confirm to you, as a native West Virginian, the state was never at any time within 10 points.. ContentedIndie was trying to justify that margin on the basis of Biden's performance in the state primary.

[RBH]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Have you not seen how Biden is improving with seniors?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This thread has the same vibes as the last minute Marquette shock poll that had Hillary leading by a narrow margin for two of the four polling days (and a more comfortable margin the other two days)

I think Biden still wins, but I might adjust my prediction down from 355 EVs to more like 320-330.

[BudgieForce]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

[swf541]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

Selzer Time of Death of Reputation 7:30 PM EST 10/31/20

[lfromnj]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

Iowa state campus residence precinct, Johnson county college students are way more D although non college youth in Iowa were probably more R.

I don't think its that unbelievable for that crosstab. The good thing about this precint is as far as I can tell is thats only the university student dorms. A lot of other college precincts also include the area nearby which are way more D.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322693838985666560

No Nate! There is a 24 point difference between Iowa and Wisconsin, obviously. What a hack!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

Makes sense. There was almost no age gap in the 2016 exits. Trump's margin with youngs was already 3 points higher than it was with seniors then.

[libertpaulian]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

Iowa state campus residence precinct, Johnson county college students are way more D although non college youth in Iowa were probably more R.

I don't think its that unbelievable for that crosstab.

It's as if the economy, the pandemic, mass shootings, etc. can also be motivators and not just the idea that Kamala Harris being VP would disband the white cishet patriarchy.

[Storr]

Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

That strikes me as Trafalgar-esque, similar to their latest MI poll where they have Trump winning 30% of Democrats, 25% of African Americans, and 46% of Hispanics.

[new_patomic]

You can always get weird subsamples in polls even while the overall sample is still legit.

But at this point I think it's fair to say that, given weighting by CD, their CD1 result does look like a genuine outlier. I don't think even the DCCC is that worried about Finkenauer, and she'd probably be triaged at this point if Trump were actually winning there by 15.

Add it to the average, move on.

[DrScholl]

The Gold Standard. Now that you are seeing what I have all along I'd like to let you see a great sight of an amazing President who will keep winning for the American people.

Even if this isn't an outlier you all still are trailing in too many states to still win the electoral college. There would have to be a massive polling failure that was far worse than 2016 for Trump to still win.

[philly09]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

Well, they were obligated to release a poll today, even if it had a bad sample.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Oh hey now.  Just seeing this.

I guess all the other polls of Iowa are wrong, as well as the hundreds of other polls released just in the last month painting the exact opposite picture of this poll's demographic shifts.

Reminder that Selzer cancelled their own final pre-Iowa poll this year, and then the results were leaked and had Buttigieg in third place.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We should merge this with the WI Biden+17 thread and watch them mutually annihilate in a matter-antimatter reaction.

[Skill and Chance]

Interestingly, this supports Quinnipiac with the strong late swing to Trump in IA.  They were just starting from a bigger Biden lead than Selzer.  Iowa snapping away from Democrats at the last minute has been a repeated occurrence the last 3 cycles regardless of what the national environment ultimately was.  I never thought Biden was going to win there.  

[Florida Man for Crime]

This is a really really bad poll for Dems, perhaps the worst one all year. I wasn't really expecting Biden to win Iowa and would have been pleasantly surprised if he did (just did my prediction map with it going R yesterday), but the really bad thing about this is it suggests that Trump's gains (and over the longer term the GOP's gains) among northern/midwestern rural WWC whites were not a one time wonder. This means we should be worried in particular about Wisconsin and Michigan as well, and to a lesser extent Minnesota and Pennsylvania (though in those states I think the Minneapolis/Philadelphia suburbs will be enough of a countertrend regardless). Also despite most polls of ME-02 having Trump up, this suggests he could win that again. Yes, those other state are different from Iowa in various ways, but it is unlikely that WWC voters will swing/trend in a massively different direction in those different states.

This is just a single poll, but it is a very important one because it is the first significant hint that Trump may have a chance in quite a while.

Overall, this greatly raises Trump's chances of winning from essentially non-existent to give Trump a non-trivial chance of pulling out a skin-of-his-teeth win. And that is too high of a chance.

If this does come to pass, over the longer term, this points to the electoral college and the Senate becoming more systemically biased in favor of the GOP.

If nothing else good comes out of this, hopefully one thing this will accomplish is to persuade more Dems of the necessity of abolishing the electoral college, and abolishing the Senate and/or adding lots of new states and/or changing it so that states don't all have exactly 2 Senators.

[2016]

The Shy Trump Vote revisited

According to a Democracy Institute Poll for the Sun Express.uk...

a whopping

78 % didn't want to tell the Pollsters that they are supporting President Trump.

Yup, the undercounted SHY TRUMP Vote is real and if they come out on Tuesday it's curtains for Biden. That explains a lot of the other wacky Pollsters.

[It’s so Joever]

The Gold Standard. Now that you are seeing what I have all along I'd like to let you see a great sight of an amazing President who will keep winning for the American people.

I have seen a Trump victory for a while now.
But let me tell you...a virus-downplaying, internationally embarrassing, healthcare gutting, climate change denier is not a patriot in any sense of the word.

The upcoming reelection of Trump is not a mark of his character, it is and will always stand as a damning indictment of the American people.

History will look back at you all with great mockery, and our lord certainly doesn’t smile upon those who try to justify the horrors of this administration.