2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[compucomp]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

We'll lose seats, but there are a few big things working in our favor:
1. Democrats will control redistricting in a lot of states where we didn't last time.
2. DC and Puerto Rico could be states.
3. The Democratic Coalition traded a lot of low-propensity voters for high-propensity ones.
4. Biden is likely to be president as the pandemic and recession end--right before midterms.
5. We don't have a bunch of random blue-dog rural seats that were always going to favor Republicans to defend.

Yeah, those are all great points, without a doubt. But even in the best circumstances, you're still going to see a regression of power unless the in-party is peaking in some sort of generational political realignment. I don't think we're at that point yet.

Another thing that could work in the Democrats' favor is that Trump is not going away quietly and he'll continue to be his deplorable self, keeping himself in the public eye and remaining popular among Republicans. In 2010 it felt like Bush was completely forgotten and there was a crop of "fresh" and "new" Republicans in the Tea Party that was gaining public support. In 2022, it should be easier to continue to tie Republicans to Trump.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323008551124684800?s=21
Dems finishing the day better than R’s.  

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323008551124684800?s=21
Dems finishing the day better than R’s.  

Yeah, Dems will probably net a small handful of votes today after Miami-Dade reports.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323008551124684800?s=21
Dems finishing the day better than R’s.  

Yeah, Dems will probably net a small handful of votes today after Miami-Dade reports.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1185521506

Democrats are already winning the day because of the mail ballots that are being reported.

 They're up nearly 5k today, it's not going to be a huge gain. They'll probably pickup votes by Party ID again tomorrow. I expected a lot more mail to end the week and it has not materialized.

[psychprofessor]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

i'm hoping republicans can get close to a 100k lead

Look at the raw numbers - D's have added almost 100k voters compared to 2016 when R's only won by 3 in the county. Maricopa could be a double digit Biden win.

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323008551124684800?s=21
Dems finishing the day better than R’s.  

Yeah, Dems will probably net a small handful of votes today after Miami-Dade reports.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1185521506

Democrats are already winning the day because of the mail ballots that are being reported.

 They're up nearly 5k today, it's not going to be a huge gain. They'll probably pickup votes by Party ID again tomorrow. I expected a lot more mail to end the weekend and it has not materialized.

Much more mail tomorrow and on Tuesday you'd think

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323008551124684800?s=21
Dems finishing the day better than R’s.  

Yeah, Dems will probably net a small handful of votes today after Miami-Dade reports.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1185521506

Democrats are already winning the day because of the mail ballots that are being reported.

 They're up nearly 5k today, it's not going to be a huge gain. They'll probably pickup votes by Party ID again tomorrow. I expected a lot more mail to end the weekend and it has not materialized.

Good point, I assumed mail wouldn’t be counted on Sundays. I might have to flip Florida back to Biden in my final predictions if Dems are up 100k heading into ED.

[Ferguson97]

So for all the memeing about Miami-Dade it's literally because all the votes weren't being reported?

[Storr]

So for all the memeing about Miami-Dade it's literally because all the votes weren't being reported?

Probably, they are notoriously slow at counting/reporting.

[GP270watch]

So for all the memeing about Miami-Dade it's literally because all the votes weren't being reported?

Probably, they are notoriously slow at counting/reporting.

 I think it's very unfair and disappointing for transparency that most of the state's counties use nearly real time turnout software and Miami-Dade does not.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Forsyth's new voters in all likelihood lean heavily D - would be surprised if they were even 50-50. As you'll see below, the county's population growth has almost all been to the benefit of Ds over the last decade. It's a combination of new transplants tending to lean far more Democratic than the older residents and a good chunk of moderate voters that used to vote mostly Republican starting to vote more Democratic in the Trump era.

Forsyth 2012: Romney 65K, Obama 14K
Forsyth 2016: Trump 69K (+4K), Clinton 23K (+9K)
Forsyth 2018 (Gubernatorial): Kemp 65K (-4K), Abrams 26K (+3K)

Overall 2012-2018 Trend: R (No change), Dems (+12K)

I could see Forsyth County, GA at something like 65-35 on a good night for Biden if these trends continue.

quote author=413 link=topic=407463.msg7710294#msg7710294 date=1604183170 uid=14567]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.

[/quote]

I know it’s a low bar, but you are my favorite green GA avatar!

This same math is why new votes in historically red suburbs like Collin and Denton are not good for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

Excellent! Far better than Sinema’s mark. Biden’s got this in the bag.

Anybody want to shoot me a link to the Ballot return files for Maricopa, and I can try to take a look at where these votes are coming from within Maricopa?

I spent a bit of time tracking these during the CD-08 SE, but haven't really spent much time looking at AZ this election cycle.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322997923169341440

[Sir Tiki]

My parents voted today and my sister's fiance voted on Wednesday, so now everyone (who's voting) in my household has done so.

[Non Swing Voter]

Any word on NC? I imagine Democrats would want to do better today, with Souls to the Polls and all.

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1322909213971095552?s=21 a lot more people have voted as far as his last comment, so I doubt the gop is actually better off this time

The GOP is definitely not better off just looking at the counties where turnout is much higher.  Plus we are at like 100% of 2016 turnout at this point, which means being down that much is actually significantly worse.  

[Lief 🗽]

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323032257355984896

[philly09]

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323032257355984896

And this is without Miami-Dade.

[EJ24]

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323032257355984896

Souls to the pooooollllllsssss

[Blair]

Apologies if already posted but gives a good run down as always of Florida.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1322976446210576386

[Inmate Trump]

My niece is a first time voter in GA and she voted for Biden. I am a proud uncle

[Buzz]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

[Roll Roons]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

Given which congressional district Rome is in, will you-know-who be speaking?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

You are also right across the Alabama state line, so that’s something.

[Malarkey Decider]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

Given which congressional district Rome is in, will you-know-who be speaking?

God please no

[Buzz]

In line at the Rome, GA rally.  Been asking around and the majority are waiting until Tuesday.  There’s wayyyyyyyyy more people here than the Macon rally a couple weeks ago.  Line is miles long

You are also right across the Alabama state line, so that’s something.

correct.  My main point was most people I’ve asked haven’t voted yet.  I got here 3 hours early and I’m fairly confident I won’t get in the rally lol.  The Macon rally I did the same and was within 50 yards of Trump.