2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

[ExSky]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

Dems in better position now though, after cannibalization.

How many EV votes were in 2016? I'd rather be up +100K with 9 million cast than +96K with 6 million cast.

Quite true. There simply aren’t that many more votes to juice in a high turnout state like Florida. GOP simply does not have the votes left to mine to overcome the Dem return advantage + the NPA’s breaking to Biden. EV for the republicans while it lasted, but it ended the possibility of a surge on ED.

Trunk needed 3 million Election Day votes net around 350k and beat Clinton. He likely has to overcome around the same 250k lead, factoring in NPA’s, with what? Maybe 600k ED votes?

I’m not so confident that the margin can’t be made up. We’re heading to historic turnout. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 2 million more people come out in Florida on Election Day.

That would put Florida close to a 90% turnout. We’re seeing historic turnout figures in states that have had low turnout forever. The counties in Florida don’t really look like they’re on track to punt the last record out of the sky. It already turned out 75% last time. Improving from 9.4m in 2016 to 10m in 2020 is probably reasonable. Maybe 1m increase. 2m isn’t gonna happen.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322958719588700161?s=20

And the Dems might have a lot more firepower than expected on E Day.

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

How is that though? I thought Dems were turning out more low propensity/first time voters than Reps. So Dems should have more super voters left...

Also, there's no way of knowing who is in the "drivers seat" b/c we dont know how heavily Dem those NPAs are breaking. But you'd rather be Dems with 100% 2016 turnout achieved by ED and still with a lead...

[dspNY]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

There is also one last day of counting ballots (tomorrow). Those will only be mail ballots and that's expected to be a much lower number than the early voting in person + VBM. The Democrats could expand the lead by a small amount tomorrow

[GP270watch]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

How is that though? I thought Dems were turning out more low propensity/first time voters than Reps. So Dems should have more super voters left...

Also, there's no way of knowing who is in the "drivers seat" b/c we dont know how heavily Dem those NPAs are breaking. But you'd rather be Dems with 100% 2016 turnout achieved by ED and still with a lead...

 Republicans have more reliable or "super voters" because White Republicans have the highest turnout of any group in Florida, by far.

[Rep Jessica]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322961850267504640

Florida in-person EV Day 14 (12:40 PM UPDATE)

Rep 26,181  (+2,187)
Dem 23,994
NPA/Other 20,679
Total 70,854

Cumulative total

Rep 1,910,621  (+561,502)
Dem 1,349,119
NPA/Other 926,401
Total 4,186,141

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

[Xing]

Any word on NC? I imagine Democrats would want to do better today, with Souls to the Polls and all.

[Buzz]

Any word on NC? I imagine Democrats would want to do better today, with Souls to the Polls and all.

https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1322909213971095552?s=21 a lot more people have voted as far as his last comment, so I doubt the gop is actually better off this time

[forsythvoter]

Forsyth's new voters in all likelihood lean heavily D - would be surprised if they were even 50-50. As you'll see below, the county's population growth has almost all been to the benefit of Ds over the last decade. It's a combination of new transplants tending to lean far more Democratic than the older residents and a good chunk of moderate voters that used to vote mostly Republican starting to vote more Democratic in the Trump era.

Forsyth 2012: Romney 65K, Obama 14K
Forsyth 2016: Trump 69K (+4K), Clinton 23K (+9K)
Forsyth 2018 (Gubernatorial): Kemp 65K (-4K), Abrams 26K (+3K)

Overall 2012-2018 Trend: R (No change), Dems (+12K)

I could see Forsyth County, GA at something like 65-35 on a good night for Biden if these trends continue.

quote author=413 link=topic=407463.msg7710294#msg7710294 date=1604183170 uid=14567]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

Wow. If Forsyth ends up at ~140% of 2016 turnout on election day and the new voters split 60-40 Biden (both reasonable imo), it'll go Trump 63-Biden 37. Which is crazy.

60-40 Biden for new voters is a lot to ask in Forsyth. Let's say they split 50-50. Still a very favorable swing to Biden.
[/quote]

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322961850267504640

Florida in-person EV Day 14 (12:40 PM UPDATE)

Rep 26,181  (+2,187)
Dem 23,994
NPA/Other 20,679
Total 70,854

Cumulative total

Rep 1,910,621  (+561,502)
Dem 1,349,119
NPA/Other 926,401
Total 4,186,141

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

I don't think this has any Miami-Dade.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

To be fair, Buzz has been one of the more consistently sensible voices of the right here. 

Yes, the left-leaning posters should remember that they will likely be in the same position as Buzz 2 years from now.

[Florida Man for Crime]

For all the talk about cannibalization in Florida the Republicans still have something like twice as many super voters left to vote as the Democrats (~300k vs ~150k). If anything its the STTP that's been cannibalized by mail in votes and reduced church attendance.

If Democrats bring their lead back up to around 120k in time for election day then the Democratic lean of the independent early voters could give Biden the edge, but otherwise Trump is in the drivers seat in Florida. But for the millionth time, Florida is lean Trump under normal conditions and he'll still probably lose even if he wins it.

But turnout is so high at this point that a non-trivial # of the super-voters that still have not voted yet will be deceased people who have not been taken off the roles yet. Those are more likely to be older people, and I would think that R super voters tend to be older than D super voters. So even if the #s you quote are right, they may be slightly deceiving for that reason.

[bradwi]

where can i find the 2016 white vote from florida per candiates?

[NOVA Green]

where can i find the 2016 white vote from florida per candiates?

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/florida

[LimoLiberal]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1322997162188394501?s=20

[ExSky]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

Excellent! Far better than Sinema’s mark. Biden’s got this in the bag.

[BudgieForce]

Maricopa is probably ground zero for moderate republicans voting democrat.

[The Mikado]

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

To be fair, Buzz has been one of the more consistently sensible voices of the right here. 

Yes, the left-leaning posters should remember that they will likely be in the same position as Buzz 2 years from now.

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

[Virginiá]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

We'll lose seats, but there are a few big things working in our favor:
1. Democrats will control redistricting in a lot of states where we didn't last time.
2. DC and Puerto Rico could be states.
3. The Democratic Coalition traded a lot of low-propensity voters for high-propensity ones.
4. Biden is likely to be president as the pandemic and recession end--right before midterms.
5. We don't have a bunch of random blue-dog rural seats that were always going to favor Republicans to defend.

[Virginiá]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

We'll lose seats, but there are a few big things working in our favor:
1. Democrats will control redistricting in a lot of states where we didn't last time.
2. DC and Puerto Rico could be states.
3. The Democratic Coalition traded a lot of low-propensity voters for high-propensity ones.
4. Biden is likely to be president as the pandemic and recession end--right before midterms.
5. We don't have a bunch of random blue-dog rural seats that were always going to favor Republicans to defend.

Yeah, those are all great points, without a doubt. But even in the best circumstances, you're still going to see a regression of power unless the in-party is peaking in some sort of generational political realignment. I don't think we're at that point yet.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Believe me, I was here for 2010 and 2014. My saying Dems would lose 8 Senate seats in 2014 was called pessimistic...

Then they lost 9.

That's why I wish I could just freeze time right now. I know it's all down hill after this. The best case scenario is mild losses downballot, although I suppose it's not out of the question to hold even or possibly gain Senate seats in 2022 (I'm less optimistic about that, good map or not. Democrats always seem to get burned in the Senate).

That’s why priority 1 needs to be to add DC and PR

[republican1993]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

i'm hoping republicans can get close to a 100k lead