2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Gass3268]

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321993217638846466

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321996630439137280

Sobering numbers for Joe Biden, Donna Shalala, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and the Florida State Senate and State House candidates in Miami-Dade.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322003547194597383?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322006624630964225?s=20

[CookieDamage]

LimoLiberal LimoLiberaling I see.

[Holmes]

lol cubans

[compucomp]

I mean, didn't we learn our lesson from 2016 when the Hispanic vote was supposed to deliver FL to Hillary? Nope, turns out that white people are still in the majority and that persuading them can easily outweigh swings among minority groups. We could easily be seeing the same thing in reverse.

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal LimoLiberaling I see.

When Debbie Mucarsel-Powell loses in FL-26 and Biden loses Florida by 50,000 votes after winning Miami-Dade by a margin of 50,000 less than HRC I'll bump this post.

[LimoLiberal]

I mean, didn't we learn our lesson from 2016 when the Hispanic vote was supposed to deliver FL to Hillary? Nope, turns out that white people are still in the majority and that persuading them can easily outweigh swings among minority groups. We could easily be seeing the same thing in reverse.

This is a valid point.

[swf541]

Yea, the shift among the white vote in Florida among seniors may be much more relevant then any gains Trump makes among Cubans, and this all assumes nothing changes in the turnout in the remaining early vote/ election day.

[BudgieForce]

This sunday will be incredibly important for dems in Miami-Dade. I'm not going to underestimate the effect Souls to the polls could have this weekend.

[PoliticsWatcher1]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1322008774832508928?s=20

[swf541]

Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

[The Mikado]

Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

Friday is the last Early Vote day, though presumably some of the straggling absentees will come in. Absentees are a pretty tiny chunk of the Texas vote, but it's not zero, so there'll be a little more from there.

[swf541]

Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

Friday is the last Early Vote day, though presumably some of the straggling absentees will come in. Absentees are a pretty tiny chunk of the Texas vote, but it's not zero, so there'll be a little more from there.

Thanks

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats winning Florida by turning out hordes of Broward County olds while Republicans dominate with Cubans is a pleasant throwback to the 90s.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jon Ralston is literally saying Susie Lee is in danger, this dude is now beyond insufferable.

[philly09]

Democrats's turnout in FL is up to 58.6%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Amazing, how many more early vote days does Texas have?

I know you got your answer, but Harris County is also running 24-hour polling places until 7 PM tomorrow

[It’s so Joever]

Just the fact that Atlas is dismissing the closest thing we have to experts, in this thread tells you everything you need to know about it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does anyone know what percent of the Texas vote typically comes from the vast expanse of sparsely populated rural areas?  I guess with the cities and suburbs booming they'll make up a much smaller share this year.

There are ~29 million Texans as of 2019 estimate. ~21 million of them live in the triangle highlighted on the map, ~8 million of them live in the entire rest of the state.

Wow and that doesn't count El Paso + RGV.

Is Texas going to be Virginia in 8 years?

[CellarDoor]

I'm very skeptical of all of the early vote analysis, even from those people who are considered experts on the subject.  The reality is that Biden's coalition is going to be different from Clinton's and Obama's, and the election is being conducted in a different matter (more early voting and mail-in-ballots).  I put more faith in the polling averages at this point, though I admit it's fun to look at the early voting numbers and try to deduce as much good news from it as I can.

[BudgieForce]

Democrats winning Florida by turning out hordes of Broward County olds while Republicans dominate with Cubans is a pleasant throwback to the 90s.

Hell, Obama only won Miami-Dade by 16 points in 2008.

[philly09]

Democrats winning Florida by turning out hordes of Broward County olds while Republicans dominate with Cubans is a pleasant throwback to the 90s.

Hell, Obama only won Miami-Dade by 16 points in 2008.

Offset by winning Volusia and Flager.

Hard to believe Bill Clinton and Al Gore won panhandle counties.

[swf541]

There is a difference between ignoring the guy and reading it in context and analyzing that 2020 is not 2016 or 2012 and looking through it via reference points that had a very different coalition is rather irrelevant or can really only be extrapolated for more local races.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

[philly09]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Well, they are running out of time. Miami-Dade is up to 808,524 votes, a little over a 150,000 votes away from their total 2016 total. Maybe the NPAs are stronger?

[Hammy]

Just the fact that Atlas is dismissing the closest thing we have to experts, in this thread tells you everything you need to know about it.

Literally any internet rando with a large following can claim to be an expert.