2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[BudgieForce]

Florida VOTE-BY-MAIL (8:50 PM UPDATE)

Democratic: 1,989,021  (+635,732)
Republican: 1,353,289
NPA/Other: 987,291
Total 4,329,601

UNRETURNED BALLOTS:
Democratic: 692,708  (+175,296)
Republican: 517,412
NPA/Other: 457,696
Total: 1,667,816

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

do they have early voting in every county every day before Election Day?

Most red counties end on the 31st. Most blue and purple counties end on November 1st.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida VOTE-BY-MAIL (8:50 PM UPDATE)

Democratic: 1,989,021  (+635,732)
Republican: 1,353,289
NPA/Other: 987,291
Total 4,329,601

UNRETURNED BALLOTS:
Democratic: 692,708  (+175,296)
Republican: 517,412
NPA/Other: 457,696
Total: 1,667,816

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

do they have early voting in every county every day before Election Day?

Most red counties end on the 31st. Most blue counties end on November 1st.

Wow, so Republicans really only have 2 more days to cut into the lead then.   Unlikely they are at parity before election day.

[Non Swing Voter]

CO numbers look horrendous for the GOP.  Cory Gardner better start pitching show names to FoxNews.  "Cory's Corner"?

[GeorgiaModerate]

CO numbers look horrendous for the GOP.  Cory Gardner better start pitching show names to FoxNews.  "Cory's Corner"?

Cory's Garden.

[walleye26]

What about CO-3? Will Boebert win or is that a lopsided turn too?

[BudgieForce]

What about CO-3? Will Boebert win or is that a lopsided turn too?

Wasn't their an internal that had Boebert in a competitive race? It would be a nice turn of events if democratic turnout was enough to stop her from winning.

[Hammy]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

[Non Swing Voter]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

The PA numbers are lagging.  Someone posted an article on this.  Some of the counties have more ballots returned than they are reporting.

[charcuterie]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

The number of unreturned ballots nationally is unsettling. How many more of these can really come in before election day?

[BudgieForce]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

In Florida, if you request an absentee ballot for one election, you'll keep getting them for following elections. I'd also wager quite a few people who requested absentee ballots decided to early vote in person instead.

In theory, your supposed to take your ballot to a polling place so a poll worker can spoil your ballot. But in practice, as long as you don't return it, it doesn't count.

[Hammy]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

In Florida, if you request an absentee ballot for one election, you'll keep getting them for following elections. I'd also wager quite a few people who requested absentee ballots decided to early vote in person instead.

In theory, your supposed to take your ballot to a polling place so a poll worker can spoil your ballot. But in practice, as long as you don't return it, it doesn't count.

Is that probably the case elsewhere as well?

[Bojack Horseman]

Sorry for the double post, but do we know if Wisconsin and Michigan are going to start canvasing mail in ballots on election day morning?

I believe they changed the law so that only the largest cities in Michigan can begin counting a couple days beforehand but I’m not sure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

The number of unreturned ballots nationally is unsettling. How many more of these can really come in before election day?

Some are already in the mail. Some are yet to be mailed, which may get them back too late or not. Some will be returned via Dropbox or to a polling place. Some will be replaced by in person votes from people who decided to do that instead. And yes, some will be nonvoters in the end. The question is: how many of these are in each group? Nobody knows, so it's pointless to fret about it.

[Bojack Horseman]

Correction:

The law, which passed out of the Republican-controlled legislature and was signed by the Democratic governor, allows election clerks whose jurisdiction contains at least 25,000 people to start processing — but not counting — mail ballots for 10 hours on Nov. 2, the day before Election Day. Previously, Michigan election officials had to wait until Election Day to start processing mail ballots, which are expected to comprise a much bigger share of the vote this year.

[BudgieForce]

Correction:

The law, which passed out of the Republican-controlled legislature and was signed by the Democratic governor, allows election clerks whose jurisdiction contains at least 25,000 people to start processing — but not counting — mail ballots for 10 hours on Nov. 2, the day before Election Day. Previously, Michigan election officials had to wait until Election Day to start processing mail ballots, which are expected to comprise a much bigger share of the vote this year.

Good, hopefully that will speed up the count in Michigan. Not going to lie, Pennsylvania sounds like a nightmare and the faster Michigan and Wisconsin get called, the better for the country and our democracy.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321996892239286278

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321996892239286278

I know it's early and he's forbidden from saying due to network contracts, but has he "seen enough" in NC?

[The Mikado]

Does anyone know what percent of the Texas vote typically comes from the vast expanse of sparsely populated rural areas?  I guess with the cities and suburbs booming they'll make up a much smaller share this year.

There are ~29 million Texans as of 2019 estimate. ~21 million of them live in the triangle highlighted on the map, ~8 million of them live in the entire rest of the state.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321880450525179904

For everyone's sanity, Biden hopefully wins Florida and North Carolina early in the night.

I guess but I assume even Fox News is going to be stressing that margins are expected to tighten significantly. The reverse will have already happened in FL and TX.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know what percent of the Texas vote typically comes from the vast expanse of sparsely populated rural areas?  I guess with the cities and suburbs booming they'll make up a much smaller share this year.

There are ~29 million Texans as of 2019 estimate. ~21 million of them live in the triangle highlighted on the map, ~8 million of them live in the entire rest of the state.

Curious to see how the GOP is going to try to gerrymander the triangle (assuming they continue to hold the trifecta). They're literally running out of space to crack districts within the triangle itself, and we're already seeing how their current gerrymander is starting to backfire.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321880450525179904
For everyone's sanity, Biden hopefully wins Florida and North Carolina early in the night.

I guess but I assume even Fox News is going to be stressing that margins are expected to tighten significantly. The reverse will have already happened in FL and TX.

It's not Fox News that I'm worried about. We already saw Republicans whisper about voter fraud in 2018 when Arizona was still counting ballots after election day. Can you imagine if Trump and his supporters start yelling about voter fraud because Biden took the lead in Pennsylvania on November 5th? Thats why if Biden wins the sunbelt early in the night(they count fast), Biden can get to 270 without Pennsylvania.

[LimoLiberal]

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321993217638846466

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321996630439137280

[Tintrlvr]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

In Florida, if you request an absentee ballot for one election, you'll keep getting them for following elections. I'd also wager quite a few people who requested absentee ballots decided to early vote in person instead.

In theory, your supposed to take your ballot to a polling place so a poll worker can spoil your ballot. But in practice, as long as you don't return it, it doesn't count.

Is that probably the case elsewhere as well?

I know that was true in New Jersey when I lived there. This year New Jersey is conducting an all-mail election anyway, so not relevant now. But I'm sure it's true in a lot of other states, too.

[Ljube]

Who cares about Florida.
Biden can lose Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida and still win the election.
And it's no surprise Florida is close and looking better for Trump.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Who cares about Florida.
Biden can lose Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida and still win the election.
And it's no surprise Florida is close and looking better for Trump.

Al Gore cares about Florida.