2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This chart single handily eased my mind on the matter. Those 3-3's are gonna vote! Either this weekend or Trump's attack on the mail scared them into voting on Election Day. Look how good Democrats are doing at getting infrequent voters to vote! Plus those NPA's 0-3's are amazing too.

Not sure if you are interpreting the table correctly, note that it is Hispanics in Dade who have NOT voted. For context we need (but don't have) a similar chart for Dade Hispanics who HAVE voted. And more importantly, we need a comparison to 2016 which is totally absent. If a similar pattern was present in previous elections, which makes sense based on the likely age demographics, it is not that big of a deal.

[ExSky]

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321993217638846466

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321996630439137280

Anyone who talks like this is seeking attention and needs to be filtered out.

[Gass3268]

This chart single handily eased my mind on the matter. Those 3-3's are gonna vote! Either this weekend or Trump's attack on the mail scared them into voting on Election Day. Look how good Democrats are doing at getting infrequent voters to vote! Plus those NPA's 0-3's are amazing too.

Not sure if you are interpreting the table correctly, note that it is Hispanics in Dade who have NOT voted. For context we need (but don't have) a similar chart for Dade Hispanics who HAVE voted. And more importantly, we need a comparison to 2016 which is totally absent. If a similar pattern was present in previous elections, which makes sense based on the likely age demographics, it is not that big of a deal.

Yeah, I read that wrong.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?
(354 map snip)

Honestly, outside of Nevada flipping, that looks like a pretty reasonable map

[ExSky]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Because it is a few days before an election, and at this point it is a second nature unconscious tic to always worry about Miami-Dade County, regardless of the circumstances.

Either "Miami-Dade County will be bad" or "Miami-Dade County will be good, but not good enough." At least it isn't any worse than worrying about the I-4 corridor.

Everyone is freaking out about Miami-Dade and missing the fact that Trump could end up with under 55% in Lake and Marion counties and might even lose Sarasota county.

Don’t you know? Only the places where Dems look vulnerable count. Nowhere else.

[Ferguson97]

So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?
(354 map snip)

Honestly, outside of Nevada flipping, that looks like a pretty reasonable map

Yeah, that was mostly because of that Twitter guy who Atlas considers to be gospel on Nevada matters.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if this was the map.

[Adam Griffin]

Some good and some bad for both sides in here:

[LimoLiberal]

I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

[Ferguson97]

I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

If Biden wins NC, then he doesn't need Florida.

[Bootes Void]

I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

You should look at the exit polls from 2016 to 2018, it's a way older electorate

[Donerail]

Please remember that Miami-Dade always looks very bad for Democrats. We get the same freakout over turnout every cycle, and it's always for the same reasons: Cubans have an efficient machine that mobilizes people during the early vote, blacks (especially Haitians) do not vote until election day or the Sunday before. Things are fine.

[MT Treasurer]

I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

State-level/Senate races in a midterm election ≠ presidential elections, especially when we’re operating under the assumption that Trump will underperform Scott/DeSantis with seniors and non-white voters (e.g. Puerto Ricans and, yes, African Americans). A change in turnout patterns/increase in youth voter turnout/participation of new voters alone could give Democrats the win with nearly the same map as in 2018 without Democrats even making a dent in GOP support among voters 65+ and older.

I’m not saying it’s impossible or anything, but it would be very surprising (albeit very entertaining because of the Titanium Tilt R meme).

[South Dakota Democrat]

There's too much focus on Miami IMO.  If you look at the senate map, Nelson didn't do as well in Miami yet came much closer statewide.  Biden seems to be headed much more for a Nelson outcome  He should try to replicate Nelson's map but do better among seniors and try to juice up black turnout.  That seems to be the winning strategy.  

I agree with this and Miami Hispanics in particular can move very differently than Hispanics in other areas (of course Hispanics are not a monolith). But the Democratic worry about Black turnout in that Politico article in is scarier, imo, because there's no reason that Miami-Dade Blacks would have different turnout than Florida Blacks, or even Blacks in the South as a whole.

They said its a point lower than in 2016? That needs to get fixed before Election Day, but I don't think it would be impossible.

Am I crazy or where there similar concerns in 2016 until the last weekend? I could have sworn there was.

You are correct, there were.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

They said its a point lower than in 2016? That needs to get fixed before Election Day, but I don't think it would be impossible.

Am I crazy or where there similar concerns in 2016 until the last weekend? I could have sworn there was.

You are correct, there were.

And that is precisely why what is needed is a comparison of the turnout data to 2016 (and 2012 and 2008). Not just looking at it in the abstract without any context from previous years.

But instead, all we have is just 2020 Miami-Dade data presented with no comparison to past trends, and some breathless politico articles which are based on some quotes the author selected from various consultants in order to try and get clicks and ad revenue.

[philly09]

If only this forum archived the discussion from four years ago.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If only this forum archived the discussion from four years ago.

You mean this discussion?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=245323.0



I also found the 2012 Early Vote thread

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157569.0

[roxas11]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Yeah, sorry, but no, this is a very bad outlook to have.

While Biden may still become president if the election isn't decided on election night (emphasis on may), I do not want to take that chance, and it would be much better if Biden had Florida.

[philly09]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Yeah, sorry, but no, this is a very bad outlook to have.

While Biden may still become president if the election isn't decided on election night (emphasis on may), I do not want to take that chance, and it would be much better if Biden had Florida.

It took the networks until nearly 11:00 to call FL for Obama in 2012, so either way you're not getting a quick call on Tuesday.

I will say that I thought Obama was going to lose Florida to Romney as the votes started to come in, but as CNN said, they underestimated the strength of the Hispanic vote.

[Hammy]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Dems had this same outlook in the Rust Belt in 2016.

[roxas11]

I'm just going to blunt, I honestly don't care if Biden wins FL or not because far as I'm concerned Florida has already served its main purpose

Keeping Trump spending as much money as possible while preventing him from using that cash in other swing states.

The midwestern states is what I really care about and if we were seeing bad numbers in those states than I would be worried, but as it stands I can care less about FL staying on the Trump train as long as The Dems take back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the end

Now If Biden ends up winning FL cool but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it if he does not...

Yeah, sorry, but no, this is a very bad outlook to have.

While Biden may still become president if the election isn't decided on election night (emphasis on may), I do not want to take that chance, and it would be much better if Biden had Florida.

You may not like my outlook, but here is the harsh reality

During 2018 midterms Florida showed all of us just out of step with the rest of the county they were and The GOP ended up doing well, there despite the fact that they were getting crushed everywhere else

you are kidding yourself if you don't think the same thing can happen again in this election
People need to wake up and realize that any Dem who is betting their political future on the idea that FL is going to save them will end up looking just as foolish as Al gore and Andrew Gillum did on election day lol

[Stockdale for Veep]

SCOTUS rules: Florida now must win for Biden.

damn it !

[Hammy]

Found this in the 2016 thread, about five days before the election on Nov 2:

Total Ballots cast: 4,466,624

Total Vote By Mail: 2,168,750(51.4%)
Total Early Vote: 2,297,874 (48.6%)

Republicans: 1,798,954 (40.3%)
Democrats: 1,781,498 (39.9%)
NPA: 886,172 (19.8%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.39%

According to here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Democrats   2,992,000   40.5
Republicans   2,787,723   37.7
Minor   95,904   1.3
No Party Affiliation   1,510,040   20.4

2016: R+0.39
2020: D+2.8

2016: 17k R advantage
2020: 215k D advangate

2016 vote: R+1.19 (about 0.8% better than their early vote lead), or about 112k votes (95k better than early vote lead.)

Edit: Thank you to whoever posted the early vote tracker weeks ago, I've gotten quite a lot of use out of it regarding early vote and keeping tabs on mail ballots.

[soundchaser]

Right, so the Florida early vote continues to look fine for Dems based on those numbers. (And even better once you consider NPAs will likely break for Biden rather than Trump this election.)

[GeneralMacArthur]

I continue to believe that it's pointless to over-analyze the Florida numbers, for two reasons:

1) Biden will do much better than Clinton among seniors and NPAs.  The magnitude of this shift is ultimately what is going to decide Florida.  Other than that, as long as Democrats are keeping up with Republicans, they're fine.

2) There are a lot of circumstantial factors impacting Miami-Dade turnout.  Looking at it in a vacuum isn't really productive.

Everyone just chill out and wait for election day.  The only takeaway from Florida in my book is that it's unclear.  Meanwhile Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa look pretty clearly fantastic for Biden.