2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[kph14]

I sometimes wonder how much better everyone's October in presidential years would be if Florida just had no voter registration by party

[kph14]

@Limo

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322006624630964225

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

These numbers in Texas are just insane. I seriously doubt all these people are coming out for Trump lol.

One thing to keep in mind is that in some previous years Texas early vote turnout seemed really high at the time, election day turnout ended up being a bit more underwhelming than expected at the time (or at least than hoped).

Of course, "really high at the time" and the numbers we are seeing now are in somewhat of a different league. Now, the numbers are way higher than anything seen previously, and it is hard to know how much of that portends high election day turnout, and how much of it portends a lot of cannibalized votes.

Honestly, I am not entirely sure whether additional very high election day turnout would be good or bad for Dems at this point. Normally you would say that higher turnout is good for Dems, but given that polling is showing that Biden has a pretty clear and consistent lead among those who already voted, if election day turnout doesn't end up quite as large as some of the predictions, that may not be the worst thing in the world, as at least it means fewer votes with which Biden's early vote margin can potentially be cut down.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

These numbers in Texas are just insane. I seriously doubt all these people are coming out for Trump lol.

One thing to keep in mind is that in some previous years Texas early vote turnout seemed really high at the time, election day turnout ended up being a bit more underwhelming than expected at the time (or at least than hoped).

Of course, "really high at the time" is and the numbers we are seeing now are in somewhat of a different league. Now, the numbers are way higher than anything seen previously, and it is hard to know how much of that portends high election day turnout, and how much of it portends a lot of cannibalized votes.

Honestly, I am not entirely sure whether additional very high election day turnout would be good or bad for Dems at this point. Normally you would say that higher turnout is good for Dems, but given that polling is showing that Biden has a pretty clear and consistent lead among those who already voted, if election day turnout doesn't end up quite as large as some of the predictions, that may not be the worst thing in the world, as at least it means fewer votes with which Biden's early vote margin can potentially be cut down.

The only thing I’ll be paying attention to turnout-wise on Election Day is the Travis and Harris county clerks Twitter pages. Historically, Travis adds just over 100k on Election Day, and I hope that number can be driven closer to 150k to get to that coveted 700k figure. There are 855k registered voters in Travis.

[Bootes Void]

Let's see what Souls to The polls do this Sunday, I wouldn't underestimate them

[forza nocta]

Launch Florida into space

[Storr]

Launch Florida into space

We could always give it back to Spain.

[Lief 🗽]

This may sound crazy but... is it time to send Hillary Clinton to Miami??

[philly09]

These numbers in Texas are just insane. I seriously doubt all these people are coming out for Trump lol.

One thing to keep in mind is that in some previous years Texas early vote turnout seemed really high at the time, election day turnout ended up being a bit more underwhelming than expected at the time (or at least than hoped).

Of course, "really high at the time" is and the numbers we are seeing now are in somewhat of a different league. Now, the numbers are way higher than anything seen previously, and it is hard to know how much of that portends high election day turnout, and how much of it portends a lot of cannibalized votes.

Honestly, I am not entirely sure whether additional very high election day turnout would be good or bad for Dems at this point. Normally you would say that higher turnout is good for Dems, but given that polling is showing that Biden has a pretty clear and consistent lead among those who already voted, if election day turnout doesn't end up quite as large as some of the predictions, that may not be the worst thing in the world, as at least it means fewer votes with which Biden's early vote margin can potentially be cut down.

The only thing I’ll be paying attention to turnout-wise on Election Day is the Travis and Harris county clerks Twitter pages. Historically, Travis adds just over 100k on Election Day, and I hope that number can be driven closer to 150k to get to that coveted 700k figure. There are 855k registered voters in Travis.

Right now, they're 175k votes behind.

[philly09]

This may sound crazy but... is it time to send Hillary Clinton to Miami??

It crossed my mind, but Bill Clinton would be the better option.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

These numbers in Texas are just insane. I seriously doubt all these people are coming out for Trump lol.

One thing to keep in mind is that in some previous years Texas early vote turnout seemed really high at the time, election day turnout ended up being a bit more underwhelming than expected at the time (or at least than hoped).

Of course, "really high at the time" is and the numbers we are seeing now are in somewhat of a different league. Now, the numbers are way higher than anything seen previously, and it is hard to know how much of that portends high election day turnout, and how much of it portends a lot of cannibalized votes.

Honestly, I am not entirely sure whether additional very high election day turnout would be good or bad for Dems at this point. Normally you would say that higher turnout is good for Dems, but given that polling is showing that Biden has a pretty clear and consistent lead among those who already voted, if election day turnout doesn't end up quite as large as some of the predictions, that may not be the worst thing in the world, as at least it means fewer votes with which Biden's early vote margin can potentially be cut down.

The only thing I’ll be paying attention to turnout-wise on Election Day is the Travis and Harris county clerks Twitter pages. Historically, Travis adds just over 100k on Election Day, and I hope that number can be driven closer to 150k to get to that coveted 700k figure. There are 855k registered voters in Travis.

Right now, they're 175k votes behind.

I expect them to get to at least 550k tomorrow, hopefully closer to 560 or even more. Anything that helps make the lines in Travis as short as possible on Election Day helps.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

This may sound crazy but... is it time to send Hillary Clinton to Miami??

It crossed my mind, but Bill Clinton would be the better option.

Hmm, many might still be upset with him over Elián González.

[Non Swing Voter]

Let's see what Souls to The polls do this Sunday, I wouldn't underestimate them

Has anyone considered how the pandemic will impact Souls to the Polls?

Are churches in Florida doing in person services?  I'd assume so given the politics down there but I'd also assume there are a lot fewer attendees.  

edit - read deeper through this thread and realized they are doing virtual services.  still concerning.

[LimoLiberal]

Let's see what Souls to The polls do this Sunday, I wouldn't underestimate them

Has anyone considered how the pandemic will impact Souls to the Polls?

Are churches in Florida doing in person services?  I'd assume so given the politics down there but I'd also assume there are a lot fewer attendees.  

I saw something on twitter that even with churches that aren't meeting in person, many Black church groups will be going to vote together as they traditionally do.

[Non Swing Voter]

There's too much focus on Miami IMO.  If you look at the senate map, Nelson didn't do as well in Miami yet came much closer statewide.  Biden seems to be headed much more for a Nelson outcome  He should try to replicate Nelson's map but do better among seniors and try to juice up black turnout.  That seems to be the winning strategy.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Let's see what Souls to The polls do this Sunday, I wouldn't underestimate them

Has anyone considered how the pandemic will impact Souls to the Polls?

Are churches in Florida doing in person services?  I'd assume so given the politics down there but I'd also assume there are a lot fewer attendees.  

I saw something on twitter that even with churches that aren't meeting in person, many Black church groups will be going to vote together as they traditionally do.

hopefully it gets decent turnout.  It seems to me that Democrats are headed for better turnout than 2016 at this pace.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322006684680785920

This chart single handily eased my mind on the matter. Those 3-3's are gonna vote! Either this weekend or Trump's attack on the mail scared them into voting on Election Day. Look how good Democrats are doing at getting infrequent voters to vote! Plus those NPA's 0-3's are amazing too.

[LimoLiberal]

There's too much focus on Miami IMO.  If you look at the senate map, Nelson didn't do as well in Miami yet came much closer statewide.  Biden seems to be headed much more for a Nelson outcome  He should try to replicate Nelson's map but do better among seniors and try to juice up black turnout.  That seems to be the winning strategy.  

I agree with this and Miami Hispanics in particular can move very differently than Hispanics in other areas (of course Hispanics are not a monolith). But the Democratic worry about Black turnout in that Politico article in is scarier, imo, because there's no reason that Miami-Dade Blacks would have different turnout than Florida Blacks, or even Blacks in the South as a whole.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This may sound crazy but... is it time to send Hillary Clinton to Miami??

It crossed my mind, but Bill Clinton would be the better option.

Get Bill Clinton back together with his old HHS secretary Donna Shalala and ONLY good things can happen in Miami, amirite? Shalala-Clinton will electrify the Dem Miami-Dade Hispanic vote.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322006684680785920

This chart single handily eased my mind on the matter. Those 3-3's are gonna vote! Either this weekend or Trump's attack on the mail scared them into voting on Election Day. Look how good Democrats are doing at getting infrequent voters to vote! Plus those NPA's 0-3's are amazing too.

But the 3/3s in that chart favor Republicans, although the 2/3s would more than make up for that margin.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I sometimes wonder how much better everyone's October in presidential years would be if Florida just had no voter registration by party

Discussion would still be dominated by Democratic turnout in Miami-Dade.

Though I'd certainly prefer that to what we have now

[Gass3268]

There's too much focus on Miami IMO.  If you look at the senate map, Nelson didn't do as well in Miami yet came much closer statewide.  Biden seems to be headed much more for a Nelson outcome  He should try to replicate Nelson's map but do better among seniors and try to juice up black turnout.  That seems to be the winning strategy.  

I agree with this and Miami Hispanics in particular can move very differently than Hispanics in other areas (of course Hispanics are not a monolith). But the Democratic worry about Black turnout in that Politico article in is scarier, imo, because there's no reason that Miami-Dade Blacks would have different turnout than Florida Blacks, or even Blacks in the South as a whole.

They said its a point lower than in 2016? That needs to get fixed before Election Day, but I don't think it would be impossible.

Am I crazy or where there similar concerns in 2016 until the last weekend? I could have sworn there was.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322006684680785920

This chart single handily eased my mind on the matter. Those 3-3's are gonna vote! Either this weekend or Trump's attack on the mail scared them into voting on Election Day. Look how good Democrats are doing at getting infrequent voters to vote! Plus those NPA's 0-3's are amazing too.

But the 3/3s in that chart favor Republicans, although the 2/3s would more than make up for that margin.

Yes, as of right now the Republicans have had more of their Super Voters (3/3's) vote, but that means there are more Super Voter Democrats left out there.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Florida Dems never fail to amaze me with their incompetence.

[Ferguson97]

So according to whether Atlas is freaking out or overjoyed about early numbers from certain states, we can expect this to me the result?