2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[BudgieForce]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?

[UncleSam]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Because Dems lost by 3 with similar numbers two years ago and there's some reason to believe that prior GE voters could potentially tilt D more than they did two years ago?

I don't think TX is going blue this year (I think Trump wins by 3 and Cornyn by like 6-7) but it is absolutely not out of the question that Biden could pull out a narrow win. Dems will probably be favorites in TX in like 4 years or so.

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

What new data, specifically? The turnout report posted above? It's not unreasonable if you think Biden is getting a number of crossover votes like O'Rourke did in 2018, as well as juicing turnout in the previously Republican suburbs.

Yes...but Republican primary voters are over performing a bit relative to 2018....and Beto still lost even with that crossover support.
Besides, how does turnout change the percentages?

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?

Comparing it to 2018, Republican primary voter share is up while the opposite is true for those with a Democratic primary history.

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Because Dems lost by 3 with similar numbers two years ago and there's some reason to believe that prior GE voters could potentially tilt D more than they did two years ago?

I don't think TX is going blue this year (I think Trump wins by 3 and Cornyn by like 6-7) but it is absolutely not out of the question that Biden could pull out a narrow win. Dems will probably be favorites in TX in like 4 years or so.

What is the proof/reasoning that prior GE voters will lean more left?

[Gass3268]

This thread is becoming is one ignored response after another.

[philly09]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?

Comparing it to 2018, Republican primary voter share is up while the opposite is true for those with a Democratic primary history.

Why do you assume that R voters are voting Trump?

[It’s so Joever]

I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?

Comparing it to 2018, Republican primary voter share is up while the opposite is true for those with a Democratic primary history.

Why do you assume that R voters are voting Trump?

I assume that while there will be some crossover support, the vast majority of R voters will vote for the Republican president.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Monday Final:, 220,483 votes were cast on Monday. This was the highest-turnout day thus far.

This includes 169,680 in-person votes and 50,803 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,966,823 in-person & 1,007,995 by mail, for a grand total of 2,974,818 (71.42% of 2016 total vote).

[n1240]

The mixed primary / last voted in D primary percentage compared to mixed primary / last voted in R primary and previous elections is pretty interesting. Of course it's a small percentage overall but it could provide a signal that Dems are doing comparatively strong among the voters without prior primary or general election history.

[philly09]

Up to 64 Million votes. A million votes away from Hillary's total.

[Brittain33]

How do pundits continue to say "early voting numbers don't matter" and "they're just cannibalizing Election Day vote" when counties that clearly favor one party are now over 100% of 2016 turnout?

It's not clear these counties favor one party. They are historically Republican counties that appear to be swinging Democratic, but we just can't make solid assumptions since changes are so recent.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Dems and Indies still dramatically outpacing GOP with 8 days left


% of 2016 ballots returned


DEM: 65%
GOP: 44%
IND: 61%

[tagimaucia]

Here’s some interesting Texas charts

DISCLAIMER: I am not posting these claiming they prove anything in particular about the eventual election outcome!

https://twitter.com/jipkin/status/1320861948507021318

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320896884068802561

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320899094232158208

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320901747263549440

[Non Swing Voter]

Colorado Dems and Indies still dramatically outpacing GOP with 8 days left


% of 2016 ballots returned


DEM: 65%
GOP: 44%
IND: 61%

Cory Gardner's constituents voting him out while he's ignoring them and voting for ACB.  Not sure how his future lobbying job is gonna look with the GOP in the minority.  Maybe he has a FoxNews job lined up.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320896884068802561

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320899094232158208

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320901747263549440

Are there examples he lists of Republicans pulling out of races that should be very competitive in the house?  I'm assuming it would be something like Elissa Slotkins district or something.  Or maybe that district in Kent County.  Or Conor Lamb's.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320896884068802561

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320899094232158208

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320901747263549440

Are there examples he lists of Republicans pulling out of races that should be very competitive in the house?  I'm assuming it would be something like Elissa Slotkins district or something.  Or maybe that district in Kent County.  Or Conor Lamb's.

They just pulled their spending in VA-02, there are others too but I'm forgetting. On the other side they just announced yesterday they were dropping $2,000,000 in NC-08.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320896884068802561

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320899094232158208

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320901747263549440

Are there examples he lists of Republicans pulling out of races that should be very competitive in the house?  I'm assuming it would be something like Elissa Slotkins district or something.  Or maybe that district in Kent County.  Or Conor Lamb's.

I suspect MI-08, MI-11, PA-07 and PA-08 are the ones he's referring to. All of those are fairly swingy but don't seem to be getting much attention.

[philly09]

Any polls out of NC-11?  Are they really going to send an anti-semite to congresspersons over a military vet?

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1320902297283645444

[Gass3268]

Any polls out of NC-11?  Are they really going to send an anti-semite to congresspersons over a military vet?

Unfortunately the military vet was the Commandant of Gitmo.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320896884068802561

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320899094232158208

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320901747263549440

Are there examples he lists of Republicans pulling out of races that should be very competitive in the house?  I'm assuming it would be something like Elissa Slotkins district or something.  Or maybe that district in Kent County.  Or Conor Lamb's.

They just pulled their spending in VA-02, there are others too but I'm forgetting. On the other side they just announced yesterday they were dropping $2,000,000 in NC-08.

Interesting.  That indicates to me that black voters are turning out.

VA-7 is more swingy but VA-2 is more about base turnout.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320896884068802561

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320899094232158208

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320900569381429248

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320901747263549440

Are there examples he lists of Republicans pulling out of races that should be very competitive in the house?  I'm assuming it would be something like Elissa Slotkins district or something.  Or maybe that district in Kent County.  Or Conor Lamb's.

I suspect MI-08, MI-11, PA-07 and PA-08 are the ones he's referring to. All of those are fairly swingy but don't seem to be getting much attention.

Me too.  Those are exactly the ones I suspect as well.

[walleye26]

Does anybody know for Wisconsin if early-in person voters are released on election night right away or treated as mail in and must be matched and verified starting at 7am?