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October 25, 2020, 12:40:18 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  CBS/YouGov: Greenfield +4 in IA, Peters +3 in MI
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Greenfield +4 in IA, Peters +3 in MI  (Read 1044 times)
VARepublican
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« on: October 11, 2020, 09:41:04 AM »

IA
Greenfield 47%
Ernst 43%

MI
Peters 47%
James 44%

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-opinion-poll-michigan-nevada-iowa/
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2020, 09:42:44 AM »

LOL at Greenfield winning by more than Peters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2020, 09:47:21 AM »

The undecideds in Michigan really lean D, especially with younger voters, Indies, and Blacks (for ex Biden winning Blacks 92-7 but Peters winning 84-6) so I'm not worried.

Yet another poll for Greenfield though. More Rs are undecided than Ds but Indies have even more undecided so it'll likely come down to them.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2020, 09:50:27 AM »

Greenfield continues to lead, it would be kind of funny if Ernst and Graham were to lose and Collins and Tillis survives
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Stuart98
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2020, 09:51:00 AM »

IA-Sen is Lean D.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2020, 10:00:19 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2020, 10:08:56 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Polled by YouGov
October 6-9

IA
1022 likely voters
MoE: 3.5% for likely voters

Greenfield 47%
Ernst 43%
Someone else 2%
Not sure 8%

MI
1181 likely voters
MoE: 3.3% for likely voters

Peters 47%
James 44%
Someone else 1%
Not sure 8%
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VARepublican
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2020, 10:01:41 AM »

Recent YouGov Senate polls:

Greenfield +4
Cunningham +10
Perdue +5
Cornyn +8
Peters +3

NUT  Smiley #CandidateQualityMatters
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2020, 10:03:26 AM »

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2020, 11:30:35 AM »

Would be wild if Greenfield and James win.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2020, 11:32:00 AM »

Would be wild if Greenfield and James win.

Greenfield and Harrison winning, with Peters and Cunningham losing is objectively hilarious
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2020, 12:04:46 PM »

But Indy Rep said Ernst was safe Iowa has retail politics😭😭😭
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2020, 12:09:10 PM »

Some of these MI-SEN numbers are a bit disturbing. However, I also think Bidenís MI number is likely a little low here. And undecideds seem to be favorable for Dems. I doubt Peters ends up losing, but did not expect to see Greenfield running ahead of him in any poll.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2020, 12:10:03 PM »

I am more disturbed at the Michigan number than pleased at the Iowa number
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Blair
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2020, 12:11:57 PM »

cue michigan panic
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2020, 12:13:12 PM »

Some of these MI-SEN numbers are a bit disturbing. However, I also think Bidenís MI number is likely a little low here. And undecideds seem to be favorable for Dems. I doubt Peters ends up losing, but did not expect to see Greenfield running ahead of him in any poll.

James is simply a really good candidate.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2020, 12:16:43 PM »

Some of these MI-SEN numbers are a bit disturbing. However, I also think Bidenís MI number is likely a little low here. And undecideds seem to be favorable for Dems. I doubt Peters ends up losing, but did not expect to see Greenfield running ahead of him in any poll.

James is simply a really good candidate.

McComb county has alot of Gun owners that believe in right to carry and been upset with lockdowns, but Biden isn't hated in the Midwest, that's why he will lose again, just like he did In 2018. He hasn't lead in most poll except his internal poll
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2020, 12:18:55 PM »

Some of these MI-SEN numbers are a bit disturbing. However, I also think Bidenís MI number is likely a little low here. And undecideds seem to be favorable for Dems. I doubt Peters ends up losing, but did not expect to see Greenfield running ahead of him in any poll.

James is simply a really good candidate.

The problem for James is that I believe 44% is the highest he's ever gotten though. It appears that is close to his ceiling.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2020, 12:29:02 PM »

Some of these MI-SEN numbers are a bit disturbing. However, I also think Bidenís MI number is likely a little low here. And undecideds seem to be favorable for Dems. I doubt Peters ends up losing, but did not expect to see Greenfield running ahead of him in any poll.

James is simply a really good candidate.

The problem for James is that I believe 44% is the highest he's ever gotten though. It appears that is close to his ceiling.

Even against Stabenow (who is definitely stronger than Peters) in 2018 (a great year for Democrats) James got 45.8%.

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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2020, 12:31:04 PM »

Some of these MI-SEN numbers are a bit disturbing. However, I also think Bidenís MI number is likely a little low here. And undecideds seem to be favorable for Dems. I doubt Peters ends up losing, but did not expect to see Greenfield running ahead of him in any poll.

James is simply a really good candidate.

The problem for James is that I believe 44% is the highest he's ever gotten though. It appears that is close to his ceiling.

Even against Stabenow (who is definitely stronger than Peters) in 2018 (a great year for Democrats) James got 45.8%.



What are your thoughts on this race, Couzens?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2020, 12:31:33 PM »

I think Peters is going to win by 2-4% margin, he's really getting saved by the national environment.
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Hardcore Sen. Peters/Daines/Cornyn/Perdue supporter
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2020, 12:36:35 PM »

Obviously Greenfield wonít outperform Peters, but is anyone else amused at how wrong this forum ends up being about literally every race? I miss the good old days of 2019, when absurdly strong, retail-politiciní, motorcycle-riding, folksy, #populist Purple heart incumbents Ernst and Senator Peters were going to outperform the top of the ticket by 5-15 points and be immune to even a massive wave in favor of the opposite party.

The UT are dropping like flies.... again. Sad
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#proudtikitorchmarcher
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2020, 12:47:05 PM »

I wonder how Slotkin would have done if James just decided to run for house.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2020, 12:50:34 PM »

If we lose the Senate because Peters gets Nelson'd, I'm going to lose it.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2020, 01:08:46 PM »

This is also a bit of an outlier, but the last 5 polls here (A/B rated) average is Peters +5.4, which doesn't sound too far off
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2020, 01:09:48 PM »

IA definitely wonít vote left of MI, but some of us said all along that neither Peters nor Ernst was safe. Wink Iíd still say Peters is favored given the environment, but I wouldnít rate this more than Lean D, and James winning isnít out of the question. IA is still Tilt R, but itís pretty hilarious that some thought Ernst was ďthe next GrassleyĒ or would win by 20-25 points.
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