Who will win Macomb County, MI?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The economy is still messed up, Biden will win it

The economy is messed up in Michigan because Whitmer closed the state. South Dakota is doing fine. It really comes down to who voters blame. In my experience (PA has similar harsh shutdown rules), old people tend to blame Trump more, which is perhaps understandable as they are the most at risk and favor lockdowns more. Younger and middle aged people are angry at Wolf for crippling the economy and their social lives.

Kirsti Noem is a sociopathic hag who refused unemployment benefits for her home state.

I suspect Macomb will go for Biden narrowly. In general, I expect the suburban WWC Obama/Trump areas (Macomb or Staten Island) to swing toward the Dems more than the truly rural or small city WWC Obama/Trump areas.

I don't like that you are calling Kristi Noem a "sociopathic hag". I think you can do much better than that.

[TheLaRocca]

Macomb is already the only Humphrey '68 - Bush '92 - Gore '00 county in the nation.

I believe it will continue its habit of supporting incumbent Republicans who go on to lose (as it did Ford in '76 and Bush in '92), but it will be close. Biden will carry MI and the election (though I'm trying not to be overly optimistic; I already voted).

Yeah, Trump but by less than 2016 is what I'd go with.

[NOVA Green]

It heavily depends on Biden's margin of victory in Michigan; a >5.5% statewide margin will land Macomb in the Dem column.
This is a pure toss-up county; I'd hazard a guess that Biden wins it by <2%.

Welcome to the forum!

I second the motion....

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump 61
Biden 37
Others 2

He expands here, but i still think he loses MI.

[H. Ross Peron]

Trump 61
Biden 37
Others 2

He expands here, but i still think he loses MI.

Why would Trump expand there? Suburban ethnic WWC people, disproportionately middle-aged or older, are the perfect demographic to swing towards Biden.

[NOVA Green]

This is a tough one, since although my gut says this a Trump 2020 HOLD, there is also a legitimate argument which could be made for a Biden '20 Flip County.

Still, I had already gone and grabbed all of the MI GE precinct results statewide, as part of side project I was working on: "The largest City in each State to Vote for Trump in 2020 Question".

In the case of Michigan, Sterling Heights was clearly ground zero, which perhaps not coincidentally happens to be located in Macomb County.

Instead of filling up this particular post with something I already posted elsewhere, here is some detailed information about how Sterling Heights voted from 2000 to 2018.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7604222#msg7604222

Still, here we are talking about a County and not just a City.

Macomb County has consistently voted to the "Right" of the State writ large for every GE PRES election from 2000 > 2016



Not quite sure why the 2000 numbers were so low, since there were 50k less voters compared to '04 and '12 and 70k less voters compared to '08 / '16.

Still anyways you look at, there were clearly a number of Kerry / Obama voters who voted Trump in 2016. This phenomenon does not appear to be correlated with '16 3rd Party Voters, since Trump received 54% of the TV in '16, which was even higher than GWB's bare 50.2% majority in '04.

Like many other large Suburban Counties, there isn't really one major "City" which dominates, but rather a patchwork of Cities, Townships, and even some pretty rural areas in the Far Northern reaches of the County.

Naturally, the first order of inquiry would be to examine the vote-share by place within Macomb to see where the voters actually reside.

Let's start with a map of the 2016 Vote Share by % of County Vote by Municipality within Macomb County, not only to provide viewers with a visual frame of reference, as opposed to Pie Chart, which would be needlessly complex for those not familiar with the Political Geography and Cities of Macomb County.



1.) Roughly 13% of the County Vote Share is located in some fairly remote parts from Metro Detroit, located in the far 1/3 of the Real Estate of the County.

2.) Roughly 28% of the County Vote Share is located in the Central Belt which runs from Shelby Township in the West, Macomb Township directly to the East, and all of the way into Chesterfield Township and the City of New Baltimore.

3.) The remaining 59% of the Vote Share in Macomb County is heavily dominated by Cities such as Sterling Heights, Warren, Eastpointe, St. Claire Heights, Roseville, Fraser and Mt Clemons, not to mention Clinton and Harrison Townships.

Now it's time to look at the 2016 GE PRES numbers in Macomb County by Municipality in an Excel Table Format:

This will help create a "baseline" since after all Trump did perform extraordinarily well here, and he's the only GE PRES candidate on the ballot who ran in '16, and although it appears evident that 3rd Party '16 voters nationally are voting hard Biden, we don't really have much evidence yet regarding Obama > Trump voters coming back home to Biden.

One of my favorite little sayings on Atlas, is I will take a voter flipping any day, because it's effectively worth two votes (+1 -1= +2).  "Bird in the Hand is worth two in the Bush, but more than happy to take the flip voters, vs 3rd party or 1st time voters, etc...  I digress...



So--- I will eliminate Municipalities with less than 3% of the County Vote Share, in order to be able to run some comparative demographics, but hell we still got 90% of the County Vote Share represented.

Here is a Table of the 90% of the vote Share of the County by Demographics:



Overwhelmingly workers in the MFG Sector (most likely predominately Union Plants), and although I didn't throw up the numbers Health Care sector workers are 2nd in Industrial Occupational classifications.

So let's roll through some of these places one at a time:

Chesterfield Township:



Clinton Township:



Eastpoint City:



Harrison Township:



Macomb Township:



Roseville City:



Shelby Township:



St. Claire Shores City:



Warren City:



Washington Township:



Already posted a bit about Sterling Heights if you click on my link above,

What does all of this mean?

Many parts of Macomb County are increasingly representing Exurban characteristics, especially in the Townships.

Perhaps most significantly, even in places within Macomb County with the highest levels of education and income, (Macomb, Shelby, and Washington Townships spring to mind), HRC lost significant ground vs Trump '16.

Not even going into the White Catholic Voters and Ancestry by place yet, but Biden will likely significantly overperform HRC numbers in Macomb, while simultaneously likely gaining ground in some of the more educated and upper middle-class communities of the county.

Has Trump brought any Auto Sector Union jobs back, despite his promises?

Last time I checked Big American Auto firms still running out parts to non-union sub-contracting plants throughout the region, while also having their own non-union plants running down south for certain product lines...

I'll toss out a fun song at the end of post, which is a classic Johnny Cash about working in the Auto Factories around Detroit.

[redeagleofficial]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

[nerd73]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Run from it, hide from it, the 444 destiny arrives all the same.


Texas (and the senate race) is Safe D.

[Canis]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Hello Red Eagle it is me the  head of the Election Mafia you have entered the wrong place leave now before I send J Miles Coleman and Louie the Leg Breaker to collect my debt from ya the election mafia is after you Red

[redeagleofficial]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

[Dr. MB]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

[redeagleofficial]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

[Dr. MB]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

Sure, as an offhanded comment you might think it's just a joke but not when it's part of a much larger pattern of weird fetishizations as can be seen by pretty much all the other leaked screenshots. Call it "trolling" if you want, but it's oddly specific.

[Canis]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1313984951247941633
Explain this one Galileo

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1315398895640379397
LMFAO J Miles Coleman Posted a screenshot of my post

[redeagleofficial]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1313984951247941633
Explain this one Galileo

I don't see what's specifically wrong with my tweet--you don't have to agree with me but I have conservative values, but this forum is not the place to discuss it.

[Canis]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1313984951247941633
Explain this one Galileo

I don't see what's specifically wrong with my tweet--you don't have to agree with me but I have conservative values, but this forum is not the place to discuss it.

What the hell is wrong with her tweet? your allowed to have your values and im allowed to say your values are stupid and backwards lol its America freedom of speech goes both ways haha

[hyouzel the predictor]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1313984951247941633
Explain this one Galileo

I don't see what's specifically wrong with my tweet--you don't have to agree with me but I have conservative values, but this forum is not the place to discuss it.

Imagine gatekeeping conservative ideology....

I mean, I'm not shocked but still.

Also, If I were the Election Mafia, why am I not getting paid by George Soros/ANTIFA/BLM/Marxists/Bernie Sanders??

[redeagleofficial]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1313984951247941633
Explain this one Galileo

I don't see what's specifically wrong with my tweet--you don't have to agree with me but I have conservative values, but this forum is not the place to discuss it.

Imagine gatekeeping conservative ideology....

I mean, I'm not shocked but still.

Also, If I were the Election Mafia, why am I not getting paid by George Soros/ANTIFA/BLM/Marxists/Bernie Sanders??

Imagine unironically believing that I think Bernie Sanders is apart of the establishment for one (even though he sucks up to them all the time); for two, the fact that the left falls in line a lot better than the right in terms of gatekeeping and ideology is why you guys have the culture in the first place; for three, the Election Mafia's leadership (527, Cook PR, Plastic Ball, etc.) is bankrolled by big media, but the poolers that follow them as well as many members Atlas are a different story.

Again, I promised not to post on this forum until my good friend NYCMM was unbanned, and I will continue that promise at least for another few weeks. See you all in mid-November!

[lfromnj]

Whats wrong with that tweet of his his? Is it now really wrong to argue against using sex appeal to persuade voters now?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Please keep this dramatic filth off the forum. Thanks.

[TheLaRocca]

Trump.

But by less then in 2016. Dem turnout increased in Macomb and Biden had more primary votes then Clinton.

[NOVA Green]

So regardless of all of the other distractions going on upthread, I wanted to follow-up a little more with some of the data points I presented earlier regarding raw votes for PRES by Township / City in Macomb County.

It is a bit strange that HRC performed so poorly in Municipalities with the highest level of household income and education within Macomb County.

Let's just start with a few places:

Macomb Township:   (10.6% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $90k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 46.0% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.0%  (4.3% Black, 3.7% Asian, 2.2% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (22.8%), Health Care (13.9%), Retail (10.1%), Education (7.7%), Professional (7.0%)
Ancestry: German (21.1%), Italian (19.1%), Polish (18.3%), Irish (10.0%)

So let's look at the % of vote by PRES from 2000 to 2016, including shifts by Party and Swings here.



As I noted in my previous post on this thread, there are certain places in Macomb County which exhibit significant exurban characteristics, and even the population growth (and GE PRES Raw Vote Totals) in Macomb Township, perhaps might make it more difficult than some other places within the County to attempt to use historical election numbers as more stable  baselines from GE-PRES elections every four years.

Between 2000 and 2016 the Total GE-PRES raw vote doubled. Between '12 and '16, there were 4k more voters (+10% increase).

Needless to say, Biden will likely need to capture at minimum 44-45% of the vote in Macomb Township for a chance of winning the County.

Theoretically if "demographics are universal destiny", this could well be a place which swings hard Biden, where smaller shifts elsewhere within Macomb County aren't enough to have Biden take the ball over the finish line.

Washington Township:   (3.6% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $82.3k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 45.0% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.9%  (2.7% Black, 0.6% Asian, 4.1% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (25.0%), Health Care (11.7%), Retail (12.5%), Education (8.8%), Professional (6.7%)
Ancestry: German (23.0%), Italian (12.9%), Polish (17.2%), Irish (12.3%)

So let's look at the % of vote by PRES from 2000 to 2016, including shifts by Party and Swings here.



Although there are not tons of votes out there, it is still demonstrates how well Trump performed in relatively upper middle-class and educated voters in MI in Macomb County in 2016.

Theoretically once again if demographics are destiny, Washington Township might well swing hard back towards Biden, and even if we assume that Biden looses the Township, there is a big difference between a +2.6k PUB PRES raw vote margin ('08) vs a +6.0k PUB PRES raw vote margin ('12).

Shelby Township (9.6% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $66.9k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 43.3% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.9%  (2.8% Black, 4.1% Asian, 2.3% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (19.6%), Health Care (14.9%), Retail (12.2%), Education (6.5%), Professional (7.3%)
Ancestry: German (19.1%), Italian (13.5%), Polish (15.7%), Irish (10.2%)

Here are the % numbers from 2000 > 2016 GE PRES:



Let's throw one more data point into the mix from one of the most Educated and higher income municipalities in Macomb County:

Chesterfield Township (5.3% of 2016 County Vote Share).

MHI= $69.2k / Yr
Educational Attainment: 36.1% with a post HS Diploma
Anglo %= 88.9%  (2.8% Black, 4.1% Asian, 2.3% Latino)
Industrial Occupations: MFG (19.6%), Health Care (14.9%), Retail (12.2%), Education (6.5%), Professional (7.3%)
Ancestry: German (19.1%), Italian (13.5%), Polish (15.7%), Irish (10.2%)



Pop increase can close to stabilizing between '08 and '16, so regardless among increased population, pretty clear that the +23% PUB Swing between '12 and '16, was predominately about Obama '12 > Trump '16, as opposed to simply 3rd party defections.

So, after a few additional data points presented, a key question will be is were the massive Obama > Trump swings in Exurban Anglo, Educated, and Upper Middle Class parts of the County a temporary phenomenon, and if so will they snap back harder and faster than the more Middle & Working Class parts of Macomb County in the Southern 3rd part of the County, which accounts for roughly 60% of the vote share.

Thoughts anybody?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does Biden need to reach in New Baltimore?