Who will win Macomb County, MI?

[Bojack Horseman]

Trump narrowly along with James. James got more votes than Peters did in the primary so I’m inclined to believe Macomb is still drinking the “Trump is fighting for the American worker” Kool-Aid.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump narrowly along with James. James got more votes than Peters did in the primary so I’m inclined to believe Macomb is still drinking the “Trump is fighting for the American worker” Kool-Aid.

Primary turnout isn't really a good metric for this sort of thing. At all.

[Stuart98]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Run from it, hide from it, the 444 destiny arrives all the same.


Texas (and the senate race) is Safe D.

Wrong 444 map; Kansas is going Blue long before Mississippi does.

[NOVA Green]

What does Biden need to reach in New Baltimore?

Not sure the exact context of the question, since although New Baltimore is part of the "Central Belt of Macomb County", results will likely not be indicative of swings within county as a whole.

Get your point in that this is place which also fits into a Higher Educated, Upper-Middle Class part of Macomb (Plus you get a view or are close to a Great Lake).

Still let's look at the RAW GE PRES Votes in New Baltimore from '00 > '16.



Let's look at it in terms of % and swings for GE-PRES Elections:



Those numbers from '16 were devastating to HRC and DEMs overall, no questions asked nor needed.

Between '12 and '16 there was a +24.0% Presidential swing!

Exception or norm, New Baltimore perhaps exemplifies how hard the "Exurban Belt of Middle Macomb" swung hard PUB in 2016 for PRES.

We can drip the numbers, but honestly part of the American Dream of the Autoworkers (from personal experience and Political Science Professor when I was an Undergrad in Ohio) was talking about Michigan Auto Workers and Union expectations:

The Boat... the Vacation Home or "Cottage" in upstate MI where you can go up and hunt, fish, and play on the likes, because of the Post WW II UAW Pattern Bargaining Contract, regardless of Employer or any Auto related factories, you still all living the American Dream.

That American Dream has now expired, even for many of the proud sons and daughters who grew up in the shadows of the Labor Movement, while American Auto jobs increasingly got shifted to Non-Union facilities from KY, TN, and throughout the former states of the "Old Confederacy".

Part of that was a "failure of imagination" at the hands of the "Big 3" Auto Companies when it came to the '70s and Stagflation and the OPEC boycotts that dramatically increased the cost of gas at the pump. Still American Auto sector effectively abandoned low fuel consumption vehicles and ceded markets to emerging brands from Asia-Pacific (Toyota, Nissan, Subaru).

Other pieces of the equation is that how the "Big 3" increasingly shopped out "suppliers" to the point that even in the Midwest you got tons of Non-Union shops run by sub-contract companies under a complete "outsourced MFG MSA contract.

Absolutely no idea how New Baltimore will vote in 2020, but pretty clear Biden should at least hit 46-47% to be competitive in similar parts of Exurban Macomb County.

[fishigan]

I know that sign counting isn't reliable, but Trump support is way higher in northern Macomb county than it was 4 years ago. Doesn't extend as far south as Warren but Shelby Twp and north (comprises most of the county) is shockingly red. Huge Trump rallies on a regular basis. And honestly if you're as far north as Armada, good luck finding more than a dozen Biden voters to rub together.

[NOVA Green]

I know that sign counting isn't reliable, but Trump support is way higher in northern Macomb county than it was 4 years ago. Doesn't extend as far south as Warren but Shelby Twp and north (comprises most of the county) is shockingly red. Huge Trump rallies on a regular basis. And honestly if you're as far north as Armada, good luck finding more than a dozen Biden voters to rub together.

Welcome to the Forum!

So you suspect that North Macomb (Lowest POP % of County) will actually swing Trump in 2020?

Plus voices on the ground indicate that Trump will hold strong in Shelby Township compared to '16?

Any insights into Macomb Township?

Sounds like you live around the joint, what are your overall thoughts when it comes to Exurban Macomb County (Central Belt) vs the more working and middle-class communities in the Southern 3rd of the County (Sterling Heights, St. Claire Shores, Warren, etc...)?

[fishigan]

I know that sign counting isn't reliable, but Trump support is way higher in northern Macomb county than it was 4 years ago. Doesn't extend as far south as Warren but Shelby Twp and north (comprises most of the county) is shockingly red. Huge Trump rallies on a regular basis. And honestly if you're as far north as Armada, good luck finding more than a dozen Biden voters to rub together.

Welcome to the Forum!

So you suspect that North Macomb (Lowest POP % of County) will actually swing Trump in 2020?

Plus voices on the ground indicate that Trump will hold strong in Shelby Township compared to '16?

Any insights into Macomb Township?

Sounds like you live around the joint, what are your overall thoughts when it comes to Exurban Macomb County (Central Belt) vs the more working and middle-class communities in the Southern 3rd of the County (Sterling Heights, St. Claire Shores, Warren, etc...)?

Yessiree I have lived in Macomb for 19 years now. Imo Warren is still solid blue, and St Claire Shores being so close to Detroit will likely go blue as well. I've noticed driving around that there's not a ton of Trump signs down in those areas. But once you get to the middle belt they're everywhere. It wasn't like this in 2016. Entire neighborhoods with Trump signs in every yard. No democrats running for local office. The kind of place where everyone flips off the BLM protestors (feels bad man).

And sure there's the difference between numbers and enthusiasm, and these are mostly my opinions, but I doubt democrats have much of a shot at all north of M-59 (bottom border of Shelby, Clinton). And they don't have enough of a supermajority of Sterling Hts to carry the county. Main thing to understand about most of Macomb is that the tenants of white flight are still insanely present.

[NOVA Green]

I know that sign counting isn't reliable, but Trump support is way higher in northern Macomb county than it was 4 years ago. Doesn't extend as far south as Warren but Shelby Twp and north (comprises most of the county) is shockingly red. Huge Trump rallies on a regular basis. And honestly if you're as far north as Armada, good luck finding more than a dozen Biden voters to rub together.

Welcome to the Forum!

So you suspect that North Macomb (Lowest POP % of County) will actually swing Trump in 2020?

Plus voices on the ground indicate that Trump will hold strong in Shelby Township compared to '16?

Any insights into Macomb Township?

Sounds like you live around the joint, what are your overall thoughts when it comes to Exurban Macomb County (Central Belt) vs the more working and middle-class communities in the Southern 3rd of the County (Sterling Heights, St. Claire Shores, Warren, etc...)?

Yessiree I have lived in Macomb for 19 years now. Imo Warren is still solid blue, and St Claire Shores being so close to Detroit will likely go blue as well. I've noticed driving around that there's not a ton of Trump signs down in those areas. But once you get to the middle belt they're everywhere. It wasn't like this in 2016. Entire neighborhoods with Trump signs in every yard. No democrats running for local office. The kind of place where everyone flips off the BLM protestors (feels bad man).

And sure there's the difference between numbers and enthusiasm, and these are mostly my opinions, but I doubt democrats have much of a shot at all north of M-59 (bottom border of Shelby, Clinton). And they don't have enough of a supermajority of Sterling Hts to carry the county. Main thing to understand about most of Macomb is that the tenants of white flight are still insanely present.

Thanks for sharing!

So you got 19 yrs living in Macomb County, and a finger on the pulse of your community after all of those years living out there.

Now--- what are your thoughts regarding the White Ethnic Catholic voters in Macomb, as well as the UAW Union workers and retirees within the Southern Portion of Macomb County?

No snark, no attempt to "own" Atlas / TE members, but more like I prefer sometimes to hear the "word from the streets" vs the CW from Media Pundits, let alone Altas wanna' be pundits.

The Flint Michigan Auto Strike wasn't that far down the road from MoTown back in the early '30...

[Horsemask]

I didn't realize people from election twitter actually browsed Atlas. I'll admit it was Miles' post that had me track down this thread.

Anyway, Trump by 3.

[VAR]

Trump won here by 8 points.

[Canis]

Probably Trump. The Trump strength with unions and Polish voters needs not to be understated. Whitmer and Stabenow won it narrowly, but they were very different races and without Trump being a factor, the county would not have been close in either race.

Though, I do expect Trump to maybe regress a bit, particularly in the southern part of the county, but he may improve in the northern, more exurban part of the county. 54-42 was the 2016 margin, I expect it to be 53-44 or so. Baris has Trump improving there though, who nailed Michigan 2016 (though he has Trump down in the state currently), but I remain skeptical.

Excuse me Mr REP, I have some questions for you.

1: Which polls are fake and which are real?
2: Who is the Election Mafia?
3: Do you think that Trump will be reelected?
4: Do you think that women are inherently inferior to men? (according to screenshots many on Atlas have seen)
5: Who hurt you?

1. I've lost faith in many of them due to their turnout models. We will see come November 4th.
2. If you have to ask, you're probably apart of it.
3. Moreso than pretty much anyone on this forum does, I'll leave it at that.
4. No; It's called we do a little trolling--and with all of the manipulated screenshots out there, one will struggle to differentiate between real and fake, sadly.
5. You guys, because I am feeling pre-sympathy for you all next month. See you then!

"Manipulated screenshots" are another word for "I was caught red handed and I can't bring myself to admit it"

No, the one you put was real--but it was it's called we do a little trolling. Just to make the libertarians in the server mad.

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/status/1313984951247941633
Explain this one Galileo

I don't see what's specifically wrong with my tweet--you don't have to agree with me but I have conservative values, but this forum is not the place to discuss it.

Imagine gatekeeping conservative ideology....

I mean, I'm not shocked but still.

Also, If I were the Election Mafia, why am I not getting paid by George Soros/ANTIFA/BLM/Marxists/Bernie Sanders??

Imagine unironically believing that I think Bernie Sanders is apart of the establishment for one (even though he sucks up to them all the time); for two, the fact that the left falls in line a lot better than the right in terms of gatekeeping and ideology is why you guys have the culture in the first place; for three, the Election Mafia's leadership (527, Cook PR, Plastic Ball, etc.) is bankrolled by big media, but the poolers that follow them as well as many members Atlas are a different story.

Again, I promised not to post on this forum until my good friend NYCMM was unbanned, and I will continue that promise at least for another few weeks. See you all in mid-November!

Where you at coward? You still coming back to gloat? Hows the youtube thing going?