ND: DFM Research: Trump +14
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  ND: DFM Research: Trump +14
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Author Topic: ND: DFM Research: Trump +14  (Read 964 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 05, 2020, 04:34:18 PM »

New Poll: North Dakota President by DFM Research on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 37%, R: 51%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2020, 04:40:05 PM »

Biden's doing 10% better than Clinton here. I've expected Biden to get around 33% of the vote here, so 37% looks good if it's close to accurate.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2020, 04:46:46 PM »

Nobody gives a sh*t how ND votes.
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SaneDemocrat
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2020, 04:49:00 PM »


Maybe you can infer Minnesota from these results.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2020, 05:05:32 PM »

A Democratic pollster
For North Dakota Voters First
September 26-29
460 adults
MoE: 4.6%

Trump 51%
Biden 37%
Other candidate 4%
Undecided 7%
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2020, 05:06:29 PM »


Unlucky for this that Heidi Heitkamp was up for re-election in 2018, rather than 2020.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2020, 05:08:14 PM »


Unlucky for this that Heidi Heitkamp was up for re-election in 2018, rather than 2020.

She still would have lost, though maybe by a McCaskill or Donnelly margin.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2020, 05:09:07 PM »

Remember that this is one of the more difficult states to poll accurately - even if polls correctly identify the identity of the probable winner, they may still be off considerably in terms of the winning margin.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2020, 05:09:24 PM »


Unlucky for this that Heidi Heitkamp was up for re-election in 2018, rather than 2020.

She still would have lost, though maybe by a McCaskill or Donnelly margin.

Oh yeah, it might even be by more since she'd also vote for impeachment and against Amy Coney Barrett. However, at least North Dakota would have had some election excitement.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2020, 05:20:12 PM »

It would be hilarious if ND becomes Likely R by election day
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2020, 06:24:55 PM »

That's a huge shift. That's when the tax matter hit, and before the President's conduct on the Jerry Springer Show... excuse me, the presidential debate... got a chance to sink in. Then cane the President testing positive and getting deathly ill of the plague that he once said would "disappear like magic". The only good thing for him was that he did not suggest a trade war that would hurt North Dakota farmers. The shift is outside the margin of error in most states. 
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2020, 06:56:32 PM »


Fargo Joe.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 09:07:09 PM »


Its FARJOE, dammit.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2020, 09:39:11 PM »


Sir, this is a forum about election maps.
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BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2020, 09:41:10 PM »

So it looks like Biden will carry my parents' precinct.
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BRTD
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2020, 10:15:42 PM »

Also my parents both voted for Big Joe this week!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: October 06, 2020, 01:21:29 AM »

Quote
Methodology:
The results presented are based on a stratified random sample of 460 North Dakota residents
over the age of 18. Survey did not use a likely voter screen results represent the North Dakota
public at large. Sample was stratified by five distinct North Dakota regions to ensure a statewide
representative sample; random sample provided by KGS Research. All calls were conducted by
live callers using landline and cell phones, supplemented by text-to-web.
After the numbers were stratified into the appropriate region, telephone numbers were selected
at random using a skip pattern to guarantee interviews were distributed throughout the region.
Each number in the stratified sample had the same non-zero chance of being selected for an
interview.
Telephone interviews were conducted by trained staff of KGS Research of Las Vegas, Nevada,
using a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) system for landline phones. Cell phone
interviews are dialed manually to comply with the 1991 Telemarketing Consumer Protection
Act. Callers asked to interview the respondent on the voter file.
Final results are weighted based on gender, age, and education to closely conform to the 2020
population demographics based on census data.
Gender
Male 50%
Age
18-39 38%
Education
Non College 70%
Female 50% 40-64 42% College Degree 30%
 65 plus 20%

So looks to be more of an RV poll (although I believe ND does have one of the higher rates of voter turnout in the Country), and is not weighted by electorate...

Honestly, regardless of these actually polling numbers, it's always struck me that Biden has / had significant room to grow in ND considering that if we assume for sake of argument that Biden is currently leading by somewhere around Obama '08 final numbers nationally, it was after all only 53.2% McCain and 44.5% Obama.... so if anything this might indicate that Biden has more room to improve than Trump at this point.

Fargo will flip back DEM in 2020 "No question", and at this point I would not be surprised if Cass County flips with it....

Here are some numbers for how Fargo has voted in some recent elections:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7560945#msg7560945
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: October 06, 2020, 01:32:29 AM »


I was very happy to see them vote for Senator Sanders in the primaries!
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