OH(Trafalgar) - Trump +4
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  OH(Trafalgar) - Trump +4
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Author Topic: OH(Trafalgar) - Trump +4  (Read 1614 times)
MplsDem
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« on: October 05, 2020, 11:59:31 AM »

Trump 47.6
Biden 43.9
Jorgensen 2.6
Hawkins 1.0
Undecided 3.6

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/
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MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2020, 11:59:47 AM »

Trashfalger
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Sirius_
Ninja0428
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2020, 12:00:25 PM »

So its Biden +2 then?
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Kuumo
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2020, 12:06:06 PM »

If even Trafalgar only has Trump +4, Trump’s ceiling is probably winning Ohio by less than 5 percent. Before COVID, I thought Trump’s MEDIAN outcome would be winning Ohio by about 6 points in 2020, but it’s clear now that he has lost a significant number of his 2016 supporters.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2020, 12:10:30 PM »

October 1-3
1035 likely voters
MoE: 2.97%
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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2020, 12:22:05 PM »

If even Trafalgar only has Trump +4, Trump’s ceiling is probably winning Ohio by less than 5 percent. Before COVID, I thought Trump’s MEDIAN outcome would be winning Ohio by about 6 points in 2020, but it’s clear now that he has lost a significant number of his 2016 supporters.
Traflagar had Mike DeWine losing Ohio by 4 in 2018, so don’t go jumping to conclusions.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2020, 12:42:15 PM »

This is one state where I'm tempted to believe the more Republican-leaning polls, but a 4-point win for Trump in OH still means he's losing MI/PA/WI and thus the election.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2020, 12:44:24 PM »

If even Trafalgar only has Trump +4, Trump’s ceiling is probably winning Ohio by less than 5 percent. Before COVID, I thought Trump’s MEDIAN outcome would be winning Ohio by about 6 points in 2020, but it’s clear now that he has lost a significant number of his 2016 supporters.
Traflagar had Mike DeWine losing Ohio by 4 in 2018, so don’t go jumping to conclusions.

It’s not out of the question that he wins by close to his 2016 margin, it is just unlikely without a late shift in the race combined with a large polling error, considering that many pollsters have adjusted their methodology since 2016. I still think OH leans R and is less likely to flip than NC and GA, but Trump winning by 8 points seems a bit outside the realistic range of outcomes. Trump +3 seems likely for the final result.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2020, 12:46:04 PM »


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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2020, 12:50:37 PM »

So his median performance is now his max. That puts things away. Especially if there are no Hail Marys.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2020, 12:57:19 PM »

New Poll: Ohio President by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-03

Summary: D: 44%, R: 48%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Hammy
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2020, 07:53:09 PM »


They were D+4 in 2018 Gov race.
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riceowl
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 09:38:58 PM »

Tipped back to red on 538
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2020, 10:16:50 PM »

Trafalgar had Biden plus 2 in MI, so Biden is leading in OH, it's MI plus 9
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Yoda
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2020, 11:20:21 PM »

Can't buy this when every poll in last few days has Biden ahead nationally by 10-15. Ohio is at worst a coin flip for Biden right now, at best he's ahead by a few.
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morgieb
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2020, 11:45:11 PM »

Actually pretty bad for Trump given how necessary Ohio is for him.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2020, 11:48:15 PM »

This is a Trafalgar poll, if IA is changing D due to our Congregation leaning D, so is OH. We need a PPP or QU poll to really know about OH
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