Statesí largest cities that will vote for Trump.
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  Statesí largest cities that will vote for Trump.
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Author Topic: Statesí largest cities that will vote for Trump.  (Read 9507 times)
SevenEleven
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« Reply #100 on: August 28, 2020, 03:16:34 AM »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick




You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.

Do you still think HB and SV vote for Trump? I expect a cratering in the suburbs.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #101 on: August 28, 2020, 03:43:50 AM »
« Edited: August 28, 2020, 03:50:54 AM by Blairite »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick




You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.

Do you still think HB and SV vote for Trump? I expect a cratering in the suburbs.

Almost certainly not and if they do, Bakersfield also voted for him by a lot. But they were basically tied in 2016 so nah. Those cities were just from a preliminary look at a precinct map to see where to dig deeper.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #102 on: August 28, 2020, 04:18:58 AM »

New Mexico: Largest Trump '16 City:

#3: Rio Rancho

Reagente posted on the 2016 thread "Largest City (or Municipality) in each State to vote for Trump"

"New Mexico

Clinton clearly won Albuquerque (#1) and Las Cruces (#2).

Surprisingly enough, Trump so clearly won the next most populated municipality, Rio Rancho (#3) there was no need to check precincts to verify.
"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5834490#msg5834490

So naturally I'm sure that the poster did his research and never had any reason to go through the exercise of examining precinct numbers from Rio Rancho, New Mexico within the 2016 GE nor 2018, let alone historical research projects.

I now understand why Reagente chose not to go through to calculate numbers for the City:

1.) We don't have precinct level municipal results available to more effectively identify precincts, split-precincts, and non-city precincts.

2.) Trying to identify where City Limits might have expanded between various elections makes it even more difficult when looking at historical "how did the City Vote in '08 type questions".

3.) The precinct boundaries that were in effect in Sandoval County for the '16 GE are not the precinct which show up on the County Precinct Map on their official website.

Where to start with this Project?

1.) First step is to establish the City Limits today...

Had to pull up a Satellite image to help reconcile City Limits.



2.) Where to find the precinct boundaries for the '16 GE?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.88/35.289/-106.729/124903

3.) Now I need to mirror my '16 GE PRES NM State data-set against the NYT '16 map.



4.) Then I gotta code precincts to fall into categories of: City, Split, & Non-City....

What a pain in the royal arse!!!!

5.) I attempt to build precinct coding then I run into the 2nd largest City in Sandoval County, Corrales New Mexico, (Pop 8.4k) where I gotta try to separate City from Uninc or even potential Rio Rancho / Uninc Splits (Ugh.... what a pain the butt...)


6.) So now I gotta look at their City Limits (Without access to precinct coding from municipal results)... sigh



7.) So naturally the next step is to code Rio Rancho precincts within Sandoval County using work-arounds.

2016 Precinct Map looks something like the following:



8.) 2016 Precinct data for areas within Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



9.) 2016 Precinct data for split precincts from Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



10.) What do the Sandoval County Rio Rancho Precincts look like from Raw Vote a % of 2016 TV?



11.) We are still missing a few precincts, since Rio Rancho crosses the BERNALILLO COUNTY line...

A brief review appears to indicate that HRC won or at min tied the Rio Rancho precincts South of the Border.

12.) The obvious wild cards in Rio Rancho are the '16 Gary Johnson voters... which is almost a New Mexico version of the McMullin vote in UT, but patched from a different cloth...

13.) I attempted to pull up precinct level results for Rio Rancho back for PRES '12 and '08 and ran into a brink wall (Please PM me if you have links to those results at a precinct level... I thought I had a comprehensive '08 GE PRES Precinct data set floating around somewhere, but if so I might have misplaced it)... Sad

14.) Regardless of the outstanding precincts in BERNALILLO County, Rio Rancho is looking potentially like a Trump > Biden flip in 2020...

Opinions my fellow Atlasians??


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #103 on: August 28, 2020, 04:55:49 AM »

Starting west of the Rockies:

Alaska: Fairbanks
Arizona: Mesa
California: Huntington Beach, Simi Valley, or Murrieta
Idaho: Meridian
Hawaii: Probably nowhere
Nevada: Henderson or Carson City
Oregon: Keizer or Grants Pass
Utah: Provo
Washington: Spokane Valley or Kennewick




You think Bakersfield won't vote for Trump? It's larger and more Republican than Huntington Beach. I actually expect HB and Simi Valley to vote Biden.

And I'm still not sold on Medford, but I would enjoy if it flipped.

I updated the list elsewhere in the thread after actually looking at precinct data. TL;DR, the biggest Trump city in CA will be Bakersfield or Visalia.

Do you still think HB and SV vote for Trump? I expect a cratering in the suburbs.

Almost certainly not and if they do, Bakersfield also voted for him by a lot. But they were basically tied in 2016 so nah. Those cities were just from a preliminary look at a precinct map to see where to dig deeper.

Not to attempt to interject in the middle of an Atlas Scrum...

I think it is a fair odds bet to look at Bakersfield as a 2020 Trump> Biden flip.

Maybe totally off-base, but the Bakersfield of '20 is not the Bakersfield of my buddy Jim, who was a post Vietnam-Era Marine, and a roughneck who worked the oil-fields of Kern County, who would crack jokes like "pass the ammunition and let God sort them out", while at the same time him and his wife were against the War in Iraq in Bush Jr era and he's working as a "Tree Climber" with the classic Northwest Logging Spiked boots, with lanyards and chainsaws to keep private property safe from storms and tree limbs flying during the ferocious Winter Storms off the Pacific Ocean in the Winter Time in the PacNW...

Bakersfield is something which appears like a "creeper weed"...

I already rolled the PRES numbers from back in the dayz (Although didn't dig into the '18 GE numbers).

If you want to throw $100 into Trump winning Bakersfield in online betting, I suspect you might be short of change....

Still--- it would def be interesting to look at Bakerfield by precinct and demographics from '12>'18, to see where shifts have happened.

All that being said, it is not an unreasonable proposition at all to say that Biden is likely a favorite to win Bakersfield under current National & State polling numbers, although it might not seem like the type of place which will swing hard in 2020.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #104 on: September 03, 2020, 02:29:04 AM »

New Mexico: Largest Trump '16 City:

#3: Rio Rancho

Reagente posted on the 2016 thread "Largest City (or Municipality) in each State to vote for Trump"

"New Mexico

Clinton clearly won Albuquerque (#1) and Las Cruces (#2).

Surprisingly enough, Trump so clearly won the next most populated municipality, Rio Rancho (#3) there was no need to check precincts to verify.
"

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5834490#msg5834490

So naturally I'm sure that the poster did his research and never had any reason to go through the exercise of examining precinct numbers from Rio Rancho, New Mexico within the 2016 GE nor 2018, let alone historical research projects.

I now understand why Reagente chose not to go through to calculate numbers for the City:

1.) We don't have precinct level municipal results available to more effectively identify precincts, split-precincts, and non-city precincts.

2.) Trying to identify where City Limits might have expanded between various elections makes it even more difficult when looking at historical "how did the City Vote in '08 type questions".

3.) The precinct boundaries that were in effect in Sandoval County for the '16 GE are not the precinct which show up on the County Precinct Map on their official website.

Where to start with this Project?

1.) First step is to establish the City Limits today...

Had to pull up a Satellite image to help reconcile City Limits.



2.) Where to find the precinct boundaries for the '16 GE?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.88/35.289/-106.729/124903

3.) Now I need to mirror my '16 GE PRES NM State data-set against the NYT '16 map.



4.) Then I gotta code precincts to fall into categories of: City, Split, & Non-City....

What a pain in the royal arse!!!!

5.) I attempt to build precinct coding then I run into the 2nd largest City in Sandoval County, Corrales New Mexico, (Pop 8.4k) where I gotta try to separate City from Uninc or even potential Rio Rancho / Uninc Splits (Ugh.... what a pain the butt...)


6.) So now I gotta look at their City Limits (Without access to precinct coding from municipal results)... sigh



7.) So naturally the next step is to code Rio Rancho precincts within Sandoval County using work-arounds.

2016 Precinct Map looks something like the following:



8.) 2016 Precinct data for areas within Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



9.) 2016 Precinct data for split precincts from Rio Rancho City Limits in Sandoval County looks like the following:



10.) What do the Sandoval County Rio Rancho Precincts look like from Raw Vote a % of 2016 TV?



11.) We are still missing a few precincts, since Rio Rancho crosses the BERNALILLO COUNTY line...

A brief review appears to indicate that HRC won or at min tied the Rio Rancho precincts South of the Border.

12.) The obvious wild cards in Rio Rancho are the '16 Gary Johnson voters... which is almost a New Mexico version of the McMullin vote in UT, but patched from a different cloth...

13.) I attempted to pull up precinct level results for Rio Rancho back for PRES '12 and '08 and ran into a brink wall (Please PM me if you have links to those results at a precinct level... I thought I had a comprehensive '08 GE PRES Precinct data set floating around somewhere, but if so I might have misplaced it)... Sad

14.) Regardless of the outstanding precincts in BERNALILLO County, Rio Rancho is looking potentially like a Trump > Biden flip in 2020...

Opinions my fellow Atlasians??


o looking at the Bernalillo County precincts of Rio Rancho are tricky since they are all split precincts (Precincts # 1, 57, 81, 115, & 118) and attempting to parse them for % within the City versus not in the City simply makes my brain ache...

That being said these (5) precincts had a total of 6,685 Total Votes (HRC: 44.9%, Trump: 42.2%, Johnson: 10.2%), so there is a chance that overall HRC slightly outperformed the numbers posted above)...

How did these same Sandoval County Rio Rancho precincts vote in the 2018 New Mexico US-Senate Election?



1.) First thing to note is that Heinrich (D) not only exceed HRC raw-vote numbers in an off-year election, but additionally bagged roughly 44-45% of the Vote for a Democratic Candidate, exceeding HRC's % by roughly 5%.

2.) Rich achieved only 37% of the vote in Rio Rancho, well below Trump's numbers by 10% within the City and 18% within the splits (!).

3.) Gary Johnson performed much better in 2018 in Rio Rancho running for US-SEN than he did for US-PRES in '16 (18% in 2018 vs the 11-12% in 2016).

4.) This appears to indicate that Rio Rancho Trump '16 PRES support might be much softer than one might imagine, especially with Biden at the top of the ticket...

5.) Demographics of Rio Rancho appear to be the type of place where one might perhaps expect to see slightly larger swings towards the Democrats at the Presidential Level in 2020:

     A.)  41.8% of the Population has a Post-Secondary Degree
     B.) MHI= $62.6k/Yr (137% of State Average) and ranks #8 within the State
     C.) Race/Ethnicity-   Is only 50% Anglo and 40% Latino....
     D.) Occupations tend to skew heavily "Pink Collar" and "Mgmt"
     E.) Industries dominated by Healthcare and Retail

6.) Still the population age complicates matters...

    A.) Anglos hit a majority of 55% at 45-54 Yrs.
    B.) Anglo jump to 65% at 55-64 Yrs
    C.) Anglos at 65+ start running into the 72-73% range.

7.) Era of COVID, Shifts in relatively Upper-Middle Class 'Burbs of Southwest Cities, trickling demographic changes, educational attainment....

8.) Personally would be surprised if Rio Rancho does not flip even in a Biden +6% National Popular Vote Margin.

Wish I had more data sets to run with...   Sad

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #105 on: September 05, 2020, 08:04:31 PM »

North Dakota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Fargo



Fargo will flip in 2020 and vote for Joe Biden.

1.) 3rd Party Voters will break heavily against Trump 2020.

2.) Write-In Votes were predominately Sanders, and to a lesser extent perhaps McMullin, Romney or Colin Powell...

3.) Again extremely frustrated to see a relatively large (By scale of State) City split precincts, which does not allow us the granularity to determine exactly how the City voted over election cycles using these same precinct maps...

4.) For the purpose of precinct coding, I used the following to determine Fargo City vs Fargo Splits...



5.) The obvious next question should be how did Fargo vote for US-PRES previously?

I couldn't easily pull up the 2008 PRES GE numbers, which perhaps in the event of a Biden 6+% Win might be a good proxy for 2020 (Although I suspect I have them stashed somewhere on a different Hard Drive), but let's at least look at the 2012 PRES GE numbers...



6.) So it's pretty clear Obama won Fargo in 2012 by a plurality... and voted narrowly slightly to the Right of the Nation on a DEM vs PUB head to head matchup.

7.) The next obvious question is: How did Fargo vote in the 2018 GE?

US-Senate---   Heitkamp landslide...



8.) US-House 2018---



9.) Regardless of the whole split-precinct issue and debates about possible Obama '12 over-performance as a Midwestern Democrat, it would be a complete brain scratcher to envision Trump winning Fargo in 2020...

10.) Bismarck, North Dakota (#2) is the correct answer.











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NOVA Green
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« Reply #106 on: September 06, 2020, 11:24:39 PM »

South Dakota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Sioux Falls

Let's look at the 2008 > 2016 US PRES Numbers by Raw Vote by County by Political Party:



Now let's look at Sioux Fall 2008 > 2016 US PRES Numbers by % by County and Political Party:



Key observations:

1.) Obama wins Sioux Falls by 50-48 in 2008 (+2% D) with a total of raw vote margin of +1.5k DEM.

2.) Obama loses Sioux Falls by 46-52 in 2012 (+6% R) with a total of raw vote margin of +4.6k PUB.

3.) Trump wins Sioux Falls by 52-41 in 2016 (+11% R) with a total raw vote margin of +7.5k PUB.

So basically we get into the Zone about 3rd Party Voters (In this case Gary Johnson Voters) to assess the "Futurity of Past and Current Data Points"...

A.) Obama won Sioux Falls in 2008 with a +2.0% margin, while winning the National Vote by 7.2%  (+5.2% R Ntl vs City)

B.) Obama lost Sioux Falls in 2012 with a +6.7% R margin, while winning the National Vote by +3.9% D  (+10.3% R Ntl vs City)

C.) HRC lost Sioux Falls in 2016 with a +10.4% R Margin, while winning the National Vote by +2.1% D   (+12.5% R Ntl vs City)

Sioux Falls is a "Tale of Two Counties"

1.) MHI by Census Tract is much higher in Lincoln County than Minnehaha County.



2.) Educational attainment by Census Tract is much higher in Lincoln County than Minnehaha County.



3.) Lincoln County is expanding it's vote share of Sioux Falls much more rapidly than Minnehaha County...

Will Sioux Falls flip in 2020???







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TDAS04
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« Reply #107 on: September 07, 2020, 05:55:12 AM »

Itís not overly likely, but Sioux Falls could flip in a decisive Biden victory.  My city probably has a better chance than the state of Iowa or Ohio, even though the 2016 Trump margins in those places were slightly lower. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #108 on: September 07, 2020, 05:28:35 PM »

Nebraska: Largest Trump '16 City:

#3: Bellevue

It looks like Bellevue will likely hold for Trump in 2020... (Assuming we don't see something really wonky in Omaha or Lincoln).



Looking at it by percentages:



Several observations here:

1.) Presidential Total Vote numbers look really odd between '08 and '12.

2.) Precinct boundaries were consolidated between those elections, however the County Election data file for '08 looks like it clearly codes City Wards and Precincts, plus I cross checked against Bellevue City Council Election numbers for that same Year.

https://www.sarpy.com/sites/default/files/doc/offices/election/2008GeneralPrec.pdf

3.) For '12 and '16 PRES results, I coded precincts as Bellevue based upon the 2018 Mayoral Election, where it appears that precinct boundaries did not change...

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NE/Sarpy/92897/web/#/detail/0142

4.) Additionally, these appear to match the current precinct maps:

https://www.sarpy.com/sites/default/files/doc/election/Maps/LegDistwPrecinct.pdf

5.) It appears that the new precinct changes include several large split precincts (#11), & (#21) and (#24), which might account for some of the variance between Total Vote numbers, regardless of inherent population growth within the City of Bellevue.

6.) Regardless, without trying to wade through '08 precinct maps for Sarpy County (Feel free to PM me if you have a copy available), not to mention looking at City Limits annexations over the past (12) Years, I think it's best to look at the '12 and '16 GE PRES results as inclusive of several large split precincts.

7.) Still, once again the data demonstrates really how well Obama performed in 2008 in parts of the Midwest that were a bit "off the radar" (With the obvious exception of NE-02)!

8.) I did take the liberty of perusing the 2018 GE Results from Sarpy County (Bellevue in particular) to see if there was any major evidence of a "Democratic Surge" and couldn't really find anything dramatic other than a few precincts where the US-DEM House Candidate performed a bit better than one might expect...

9.) Now--- Bellevue does have an Air Force Base right next door so like any other communities with a higher than average % of active duty service members, vets, and general parts of the area with "Base Community" vibes, so who knows where this whole Trump Vets comments deal will go come November...

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #109 on: September 07, 2020, 06:23:07 PM »

Itís not overly likely, but Sioux Falls could flip in a decisive Biden victory.  My city probably has a better chance than the state of Iowa or Ohio, even though the 2016 Trump margins in those places were slightly lower. 

Thanks TDAS04!

So I've got a few things that I'm still trying to wrap my brain around within the context of what we currently know within the trajectory of the 2020 GE PRES Election:

1.) Even if we operate on the assumption based upon current national polling data that Biden looks likely to win the PV by somewhere within the 6-8% Range...

2.) Even if we operate on the assumption based upon current national polling data that Biden will consolidate the Lion's Share of 3rd Party and Write-In votes (Exceptions might well be in McMullin strong zones or areas where a large chunk of Write-In ballots tended to skew a bit more Mormon bcs of Demographics.

3.) Was Obama's success in the larger Cities of the "Grain Belt" of the Midwest innately connected with his Midwest Democratic background, family history in Kansas, unique impacts of the Great Recession?

4.) Is Obama's success in places like Fargo, Sioux Falls, Omaha, Billings, etc transferable to Biden?

5.) Trump '16 is the main baseline variable to operate on when trying to examine potential '20 GE PRES results, but simultaneously many Obama '08 voters in these places are well aware of Joe Biden...

6.) Sioux Falls in particular is a bit interesting in that it is actually not only a fairly large City (Pop 168k), and roughly 20% of the South Dakota POP, but also includes some very heavily Republican precincts in Lincoln County, which have an extremely high Household Income and Educational Attainment Level (Theoretically the types of places where in a decent sized City where one might envision some major swings, not to mention that Obama did win the City by 50-48 in 2008.)

7.) Do you have any insights on the Biden / Trump contest in the Lincoln County part of Sioux Falls, or similar precincts within the Minnehaha County around the South, Far West, and Far East?

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« Reply #110 on: September 07, 2020, 08:26:06 PM »

Sioux Falls should swing towards Biden, both sides of the county line, but for different reasons.  Sioux Falls is historically lily-white with much increased diversity in recent decades, but most of that diversity is in Minnehaha.  Lincoln County is still lily-white, but should swing left due to education.  Iíd imagine that the extant of Minnehahaís swing could be influenced by turnout by minorities, including immigrants from such places as Mexico and Sudan, and also Native Americans.

Anyway, the most liberal areas of Sioux Falls are in or near downtown, typical of cities.  A big reason Sioux Falls is more Republican than a lot of other cities is much of it has a suburban character.  The reason Fargo is more liberal is because it has a denser urban core, and NDSU.

Sure, Obamaís success in Plains cities should be transferable to Biden.  Omaha was actually pretty good for Hillary.

Obama performed very well in the region in 2008, including many rural areas.  I thought rural counties in  Minnesota, Iowa, Dakotas, etc. would stay distinct a little longer from rural areas in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Appalachia which swung against Obama.  It seemed like the Upper Midwest had a more moderate rural culture, due to Northern and Scandinavian heritage, yet 2016 saw rural America swing sharply towards Trump.  Democratsí problems with rural areas will probably continue for a while, but Biden should do fine in cities, even on the Plains.
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« Reply #111 on: September 08, 2020, 12:52:43 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 02:20:25 AM by NOVA Green »

Kansas: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Wichita... Tossup/ Tilt Trump 2020



IDK if Wichita is a 2020 Flip Zone, but % numbers would def put it on my flag as a PUB Op..



Haven't even run the 2018 Kansas numbers yet, but "Bloody Kansas" and the "Republican Civil War", will likely cause some hard hitting numbers even in Wichita, Kansas...

Assuming Biden +6-8% National, Wichita is totally in the Tossup Zone....
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« Reply #112 on: September 11, 2020, 09:33:19 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2020, 05:38:38 PM by NOVA Green »

Kansas: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Wichita... Tossup/ Tilt Trump 2020

So I had 45 Minutes before I had to go to work earlier today and decided to go ahead and grab the entire Kansas 2018 precinct data set and quickly ran a query / pivot table, and look at the CD-04 election results:



What I am seeing here?

1.) We observe the '08>'12 GE PRES drop-off of Total Voters by roughly 10k and roughly 6% drop-off in TV.

2.) We see about 4k more Total GE PRES Votes between '12 and 16, but still significantly lower than the 2008 TV numbers... (Roughly 97%).

3.) Now we have in CD-04 a US House member who almost won Wichita, the legendary stronghold of the Anti-Choice Movement, which represents the vast majority of voters within the District.... with the overwhelming majority of voters coming from "Metro Wichita"....

4.) We see the DEM CD-04 House candidate out-perform the raw DEM PRES vote totals from 2012 and 2016!

So I thought it might be interesting to look at where the major swings towards the Democratic Party occurred between the 2016 GE PRES vs 2018 GE KS CD-04 in Wichita Precincts (+10% DEM Swings):



Fine... now lets look at a Table of precincts where there was a 15%+ DEM Swing within Wichita...



So... easy take is that 3rd Party Voters going hard DEM in '18 was a HUGE factor, while also we observe a significant decrease in Republican Total Vote Share % from 2-6% in most of these precincts...

It gets even more complicated once we look at the DEM voters who did not flip or turnout in '18 in larger numbers...

Filter are Precincts in Wichita which voted 60%+ DEM in '16...

(600) DEM votes disappeared between '16 and '18 and (200) PUB votes disappeared as well...



Most of these precincts fall within the historic "Red Lined" Black Communities of Wichita...

Anybody on Atlas who has not read the "Autobiography" of Malcom X, let alone the weaker Movie Rendition, need to buy a cheap paperback copy on eBay / Amazon / Local book stores...

Doesn't matter if you are "Jet Black" Brother or Sister or a "Cherokee Red" Brother or Sister, let alone Anglo, Latino, or Asian-American background...

Still doesn't appear that Black precincts in Wichita really voted that heavily in '18 compared to GE '16...

Haven't run the numbers from '08 / '12 on these same precincts and Damn not gonna blame a brother man for not voting in '16 with O'Bama off the ballot...

Meanwhile we have a significant Latino % in Wichita which is growing and now 16% of the POP (!!!)

Any way you look at the '18 House Results, it reinforces the concept that Wichita, Kansas might well flip DEM in 2020....


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« Reply #113 on: September 15, 2020, 01:18:59 AM »

Missouri: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Springfield... Lean/Likely Trump 2020



Still, there are a few items inconclusive when it comes to Absentee Vote breakdowns, but honestly Trump looks weaker in Springfield, MO than might be part of Conventional Wisdom.....

Food for thoughts, inputs welcomed as always....
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« Reply #114 on: September 16, 2020, 01:11:18 AM »

Missouri: Largest Trump '16 City:

#1: Springfield... Lean/Likely Trump 2020



Still, there are a few items inconclusive when it comes to Absentee Vote breakdowns, but honestly Trump looks weaker in Springfield, MO than might be part of Conventional Wisdom.....

Food for thoughts, inputs welcomed as always....


So--- I recognize that this is a somewhat boring side-topic for many of you, but either way Trump actually needs to perform well in larger population Centers which he won in 2016 in various States, since ultimately the massive shifts in Rural Areas in various places which propelled him to an EC Victory aren't transferable to 2020... especially when we start dropping down-ballot.

Regardless, I thought it might be interesting to look at the US-SEN results from Springfield MO in '16 and '18...



So in 2016 Kander almost beat Blunt in Springfield, with Blunt held down to only 48.0%?

So in 2018 McCaskill (D) beat Hawley (R) in Springfield 49.9% to 45.5%   (+4.4% D)?

Obviously the situation is a bit more complicated, and I have not addressed the whole "Greene County Absentee" question when it comes to City vs Non-City...

Split Precinct might slightly shift a few things on the margins as well when it comes to the % of the actual vote within the City itself...

Still '16 and '18 DEM for US-SEN results might actually bode well for Biden as a potential "Flip City", not to mention some of the polling results we have seen for MO, where the 'Burbs of St. Louis and KC cannot explain?

Also might explain shifts in neighboring parts of NW Arkansas?
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« Reply #115 on: September 16, 2020, 01:41:58 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2020, 01:55:18 AM by EastOfEden »

So in 2016 Kander almost beat Blunt in Springfield, with Blunt held down to only 48.0%?

So in 2018 McCaskill (D) beat Hawley (R) in Springfield 49.9% to 45.5%   (+4.4% D)?

Obviously the situation is a bit more complicated, and I have not addressed the whole "Greene County Absentee" question when it comes to City vs Non-City...

Split Precinct might slightly shift a few things on the margins as well when it comes to the % of the actual vote within the City itself...

Still '16 and '18 DEM for US-SEN results might actually bode well for Biden as a potential "Flip City", not to mention some of the polling results we have seen for MO, where the 'Burbs of St. Louis and KC cannot explain?

Also might explain shifts in neighboring parts of NW Arkansas?

Adding to this the fact that Galloway won the whole county in 2018 and Yes won in the county on the Medicaid expansion referendum, it's clear that Greene County is increasingly a component of any strong Democratic or left-wing performance in the state. If McCaskill beat Hawley in Springfield while losing the state by 6, then with two more years of trends, I think Biden winning the city is looking very likely at this point. He probably has a chance at winning it even if he loses the state by 10 points.

As for those Trump +6 and +5 polls...well, it's possible we could be seeing really dramatic leftward shifts in Greene and St. Charles counties. That combined with a rural bounce-back could create that result. If Biden can cut rural margins as much as Galloway did in 2018, things could get really interesting.

Now I'm wondering if Jefferson City could be a flip city as well. Cole County is really odd. For most of its history it's been very consistently Republican despite being the state capital (Nixon lost it in both of his landslide gubernatorial wins), but in 2018 Galloway won it pretty comfortably. Not sure what happened there. The county has gone Democratic before, but it has never been more Democratic than any of its neighbors, until the huge swing out of nowhere in 2018.
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« Reply #116 on: September 19, 2020, 11:07:23 PM »

Minnesota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#9: St. Cloud....   Tilt / Likely Biden 2020...

So assuming St. Cloud flips is BRTD correct with Lakeville as being the largest city in MN to vote for Trump in 2016?

2016 GE PRES Results:



Go back in time...

2012 GE PRES Results:



2008 GE PRES Results:



2004 GE PRES Results:



2000 GE PRES Results:



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« Reply #117 on: September 19, 2020, 11:21:02 PM »

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock


Decatur voted for Clinton by a not-insignificant margin.

For the record, the largest city to vote for Trump in IL in 2016 was Orland Park, which was around Trump +9-10 (imprecise precinct estimate). It is possible that it will vote for Trump again, though in this environment it's probably a tossup.

Not Jacksonville? I realized Trump only won Duval County by a very narrow margin, but since Jacksonville's over 95% of the population of the county....
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« Reply #118 on: September 19, 2020, 11:32:47 PM »

Illinois: Decatur
Maryland: Salisbury or Cumberland
New Jersey: Lakewood
New York: Utica
Pennsylvania: Altoona
Tennessee: Murfreesboro
Texas: Probably Plano, if not then definitely Lubbock


Decatur voted for Clinton by a not-insignificant margin.

For the record, the largest city to vote for Trump in IL in 2016 was Orland Park, which was around Trump +9-10 (imprecise precinct estimate). It is possible that it will vote for Trump again, though in this environment it's probably a tossup.

Not Jacksonville? I realized Trump only won Duval County by a very narrow margin, but since Jacksonville's over 95% of the population of the county....

Jacksonville went for Clinton by a couple hundred votes.
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« Reply #119 on: September 20, 2020, 04:13:35 PM »

Minnesota: Largest Trump '16 City:

#9: St. Cloud....   Tilt / Likely Biden 2020...

So assuming St. Cloud flips is BRTD correct with Lakeville as being the largest city in MN to vote for Trump in 2016?


So, although I consider St. Cloud to be a Biden 2020 flip, based upon both the 2016 3rd Party numbers as well as the historical voting patterns of the City, I thought it might also be informative to look at the 2018 GE numbers.

2018 US Senate:

Newberger (R):    9,388      (36.9%)   
Klobuchar (D):     14,776    (58.1%)
TOTAL:                25,435

2018 US House CD-06:

Emmer (R):        11,924     (47.3%)
Todd    (D):         13,255    (52.5%)
TOTAL:               25,230

*** Note this was a House district which went 61-39 R in 2018***

I suspect that 2020 GE PRES results will be closer to the 2018 numbers...

#10: Woodbury (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul) was something like Trump 40%- HRC 52%.

#11: Eagan   (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul) was something like Trump 36%- HRC 54%.

#12: Eden Prairie  (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul) was something like Trump 39%- HRC 53%.

These are all obviously Safe Biden cities in 2020.

The next largest City to vote for Trump in 2020 was

 #13: Coon Rapids (Metro Minneapolis- St. Paul)

Trump 47%-
HRC    44%

Will Trump hold Coon Rapids in 2020?





             
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« Reply #120 on: September 20, 2020, 07:16:02 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...





Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?





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« Reply #121 on: September 20, 2020, 08:49:26 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...

IMAGES

Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?


Since we're talking about the city proper areas, rather than their corresponding counties, these are interesting questions.

On the first point (GB and/or Appleton), I think the answer in a solid no on that flip, especially given the current national environment and the increasing trends towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas. Joe Biden should see improvement on HRC's margins in both GB and Appleton.

On the second point (Kenosha), the recent unrest should not heavily influence Kenosha. It should still be a strong D bastion, especially with this environment. Polling indicates that Trump's response on the civil unrest was viewed more negatively, in general, because he did not do enough or he stoked the flames more than anything else. Some of his actions, particularly his comment on Kenosha not existing if it weren't for him or that photo shoot at a store against the present owner's consent, did do Trump any favors for Kenosha locals either.

On the third point (Waukesha), are we talking about the county or the city? If it's the city, there's a strong chance it will. In fact, if the environment remains unchanged or if it worsens for Trump, I believe one of the WOW counties may finally jump ship from Republicans ŗ la Orange County (or at least come close). In that scenario, cities like Waukesha would be one of the big reasons why that happens (it was D-5 for Baldwin in 2018).

On the last point (city of Oshkosh), it could flip R, but not in this environment.
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« Reply #122 on: September 20, 2020, 09:23:30 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...

IMAGES

Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?


Since we're talking about the city proper areas, rather than their corresponding counties, these are interesting questions.

On the first point (GB and/or Appleton), I think the answer in a solid no on that flip, especially given the current national environment and the increasing trends towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas. Joe Biden should see improvement on HRC's margins in both GB and Appleton.

On the second point (Kenosha), the recent unrest should not heavily influence Kenosha. It should still be a strong D bastion, especially with this environment. Polling indicates that Trump's response on the civil unrest was viewed more negatively, in general, because he did not do enough or he stoked the flames more than anything else. Some of his actions, particularly his comment on Kenosha not existing if it weren't for him or that photo shoot at a store against the present owner's consent, did do Trump any favors for Kenosha locals either.

On the third point (Waukesha), are we talking about the county or the city? If it's the city, there's a strong chance it will. In fact, if the environment remains unchanged or if it worsens for Trump, I believe one of the WOW counties may finally jump ship from Republicans ŗ la Orange County (or at least come close). In that scenario, cities like Waukesha would be one of the big reasons why that happens (it was D-5 for Baldwin in 2018).

On the last point (city of Oshkosh), it could flip R, but not in this environment.

The Election numbers I posted for all are for the "Cities" only, and do not include "Townships", "Villages", nor Counties...

Still WOW counties are a lot more than just one City, and Trump attempts to play in WI, he's gotta do extremely well within the "Green Bay" area, plus WOW, and hold onto rurals...

Haven't run the 2018 numbers for Waukesha (City), but WI overall with Overall High Voter Turnout Levels that we are unlikely to observe massive TO changes from '16 GE in terms of % of votes...

Also haven't run the numbers from the City back in time, so a 41% HRC vs 51% Trump '16 number in '16 is not especially elucidating...

Meanwhile... Trump under-performs in "Rural Wisconsin" will likely be the kiss of death, regardless of the WOW Counties and Metro Green Bay area....

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805
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« Reply #123 on: September 20, 2020, 09:26:03 PM »

Wisconsin: Largest Trump '16 City:

#7: Waukesha....   Tilt / Likely Trump 2020...

So--- I thought it might be a good idea to review the Top Ten largest Cities in Wisconsin, especially in light of recent events...

IMAGES

Will Green Bay or Appleton flip in 2020 from HRC > Trump?

What about recent unrest in Kenosha in a heavily HRC '16 City?

Is there any reason to suspect that Waukesha might flip in 2020 for Biden?

Could Oshkosh flip before Green Bay or Appleton?


Since we're talking about the city proper areas, rather than their corresponding counties, these are interesting questions.

On the first point (GB and/or Appleton), I think the answer in a solid no on that flip, especially given the current national environment and the increasing trends towards the Democrats in urban and suburban areas. Joe Biden should see improvement on HRC's margins in both GB and Appleton.

On the second point (Kenosha), the recent unrest should not heavily influence Kenosha. It should still be a strong D bastion, especially with this environment. Polling indicates that Trump's response on the civil unrest was viewed more negatively, in general, because he did not do enough or he stoked the flames more than anything else. Some of his actions, particularly his comment on Kenosha not existing if it weren't for him or that photo shoot at a store against the present owner's consent, did do Trump any favors for Kenosha locals either.

On the third point (Waukesha), are we talking about the county or the city? If it's the city, there's a strong chance it will. In fact, if the environment remains unchanged or if it worsens for Trump, I believe one of the WOW counties may finally jump ship from Republicans ŗ la Orange County (or at least come close). In that scenario, cities like Waukesha would be one of the big reasons why that happens (it was D-5 for Baldwin in 2018).

On the last point (city of Oshkosh), it could flip R, but not in this environment.

The Election numbers I posted for all are for the "Cities" only, and do not include "Townships", "Villages", nor Counties...

Still WOW counties are a lot more than just one City, and Trump attempts to play in WI, he's gotta do extremely well within the "Green Bay" area, plus WOW, and hold onto rurals...

Haven't run the 2018 numbers for Waukesha (City), but WI overall with Overall High Voter Turnout Levels that we are unlikely to observe massive TO changes from '16 GE in terms of % of votes...

Also haven't run the numbers from the City back in time, so a 41% HRC vs 51% Trump '16 number in '16 is not especially elucidating...

Meanwhile... Trump under-performs in "Rural Wisconsin" will likely be the kiss of death, regardless of the WOW Counties and Metro Green Bay area....

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/18/trump-wisconsin-suburbs-milwaukee-1501805

Trump will almost certainly make some inroads in the small towns of eastern WI (thinking around the Fox Valley area), but everything else might just fall from under.
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« Reply #124 on: September 21, 2020, 12:48:19 AM »

As long as St. Cloud State University is in session (and no sign of it closing, in fact COVID outbreak hasn't been bad there despite some early outbreaks at a meat packing plant in Stearns County, Biden should win St. Cloud. Btw if you're going to use 2018 Senate numbers better to use Tina Smith's instead of Klobuchar (or just use the Gubernatorial numbers. Doesn't really matter too much which one, Walz and Smith ran practically the same.)

Demographic trends in Coon Rapids are very much not in Trump's favor and neither the 2018 results. So Lakeville is the most likely answer as I've said before. If Biden can pull even that off then probably Andover just north of Coon Rapids.
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