IA SEN - DMR Poll: Greenfield +3
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  IA SEN - DMR Poll: Greenfield +3
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Author Topic: IA SEN - DMR Poll: Greenfield +3  (Read 2211 times)
DrScholl
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« on: September 19, 2020, 06:02:57 PM »

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/09/19/iowa-poll-theresa-greenfield-narrowly-leads-joni-ernst-senate-race/3486994001/
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With just over six weeks to Election Day, the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Greenfield leading 45% to 42% among likely voters. Another 3% say they would vote for someone else, 2% say they would not vote in the race and 7% are unsure.

Despite heavy campaigning and millions spent on television ads, the results are largely unchanged since June, when Greenfield led Ernst 46% to 43%.
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2020, 06:03:45 PM »

Whew. Great poll for Greenfield, disastrous for Senate Republicans.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2020, 06:05:25 PM »

September 14-17
658 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%
Changes with June 7-10 poll

Greenfield 45% (-1)
Ernst 42% (-1)
Someone else 3%
Would not vote 2%
Unsure 7%
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2020, 06:05:31 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2020, 06:05:45 PM »

IOWA POLL!!!
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Splash
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2020, 06:06:20 PM »

Being at 42% this close to the election is, um, not ideal for Ernst.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2020, 06:08:00 PM »

Feeling pretty chuffed about predicting IA'd be the most likely seat 51 and flip Democratic.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2020, 06:10:09 PM »

Mind you, this was BEFORE her craven attempts to fundraise off the death of RBG.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2020, 06:11:01 PM »

How do they have a poll of "likely voters" but 2% of them said they are not voting? How does that make sense? LOL

13% other/undecided/won't vote is really high and leaves these results really up in the air.

However, lots of warning signs for Ernst here. 56% say she's not doing enough for Iowa. Her favorability dropped fro 45/40 in June to 44/44 now. Greenfield has become more well known, and has a positive +4 fav rating (40/36). Bad for Ernst though, Greenfield has gone from 39% Iowans unaware of her to 24%, and still kept her lead.

Greenfield is also seen as "about right for Iowa" by 42%, versus only 34% saying she's too liberal.

Greenfield is winning women by large #s and Indies by 15%.

The fact that she's only leading with 45% is not good enough for anyone to say, but, Greenfield has led in nearly every single poll (besides just one) in like the last 5-6 months, and Ernst clocking in at only 42-43% in the last 2 polls is pretty bad for an incumbent.

Oh, and Greenfield is getting 10% of 2016 Trump voters. Ernst is only getting 2% of Clinton voters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2020, 06:11:35 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2020, 06:11:49 PM »

Are they doing a presidential poll today or tomorrow?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2020, 06:12:01 PM »

Still don't think it's going to be enough but quite impressive that Greenfield is still leading here.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2020, 06:13:42 PM »

I want to see the Presidential numbers here and see if Greenfield is still running ahead of Biden by a decent amount
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2020, 06:15:17 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.

Greenfield. Ernst's voters are more rock-steady. Plus, Greenfield's only at 45%.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2020, 06:17:29 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.

Greenfield. Ernst's voters are more rock-steady. Plus, Greenfield's only at 45%.

Huh? 87% to 83% isn't that big of a difference. 4% more is literally basically the MoE here. You're saying Greenfield, the challenger, being at 45% is more of a precarious situation than Ernst, the incumbent, being at 42%, lower than where she was in June?

If you look at the crosstabs, they look awfully bad for Ernst. If 56% of people don't think you're doing enough for Iowa and you're favorability drops a net 5% since June while still losing to your challenger.... I fail to see how this is good for Ernst? You're not making sense.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2020, 06:18:28 PM »

Are they doing a presidential poll today or tomorrow?

Yeah they always release them separately, so I'm gonna assume tomorrow at 7pm EST most likely
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WD
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2020, 06:21:54 PM »

You just love to see it.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2020, 06:32:43 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.

Greenfield. Ernst's voters are more rock-steady. Plus, Greenfield's only at 45%.

Ernst is only at 42% which is not at all good for an incumbent. This poll is terrible for Ernst.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2020, 06:34:02 PM »

Has Joni Ernst done enough in Congress to benefit Iowans?
56% no
33% yes
11% unsure

How is Joni Ernsts relationship with Trump?
43% about right
37% too close
4% not close enough
17% unsure

Indies: 43% too close, 37% about right, 3% not close enough

Ernst favorability: 44/40 (was 45/40 in June)
Greenfield favorability: 40/36 (was 41/20 in June)

Joni Erst approval on addressing COVID-19: 38/41 (was 42/34 in June)

Greenfieldís views?
42% about right
34% too liberal
6% not liberal enough
18% not sure

Indies: 44% about right, 25% too liberal

--

Ernst's COVID approval going from +8 to -3.... woof
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2020, 06:36:08 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.

Greenfield. Ernst's voters are more rock-steady. Plus, Greenfield's only at 45%.

Huh? 87% to 83% isn't that big of a difference. 4% more is literally basically the MoE here. You're saying Greenfield, the challenger, being at 45% is more of a precarious situation than Ernst, the incumbent, being at 42%, lower than where she was in June?

If you look at the crosstabs, they look awfully bad for Ernst. If 56% of people don't think you're doing enough for Iowa and you're favorability drops a net 5% since June while still losing to your challenger.... I fail to see how this is good for Ernst? You're not making sense.

He is a troll. Stop feeding him.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2020, 06:39:01 PM »

But Iím sure SCOTUS will change all of this
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2020, 06:40:23 PM »

Didn't know Ernst got herself into trouble last night too...

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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2020, 07:12:38 PM »

Mind you, this was BEFORE her craven attempts to fundraise off the death of RBG.


Nasty woman.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2020, 07:14:03 PM »

I want to see the Presidential numbers here and see if Greenfield is still running ahead of Biden by a decent amount

Ernst will win imo
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2020, 07:31:52 PM »

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

I have noticed you like to make statements like this, but never show your math.  Why is this?
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