IA SEN - DMR Poll: Greenfield +3

[wbrocks67]

How do they have a poll of "likely voters" but 2% of them said they are not voting? How does that make sense? LOL

13% other/undecided/won't vote is really high and leaves these results really up in the air.

However, lots of warning signs for Ernst here. 56% say she's not doing enough for Iowa. Her favorability dropped fro 45/40 in June to 44/44 now. Greenfield has become more well known, and has a positive +4 fav rating (40/36). Bad for Ernst though, Greenfield has gone from 39% Iowans unaware of her to 24%, and still kept her lead.

Greenfield is also seen as "about right for Iowa" by 42%, versus only 34% saying she's too liberal.

Greenfield is winning women by large #s and Indies by 15%.

The fact that she's only leading with 45% is not good enough for anyone to say, but, Greenfield has led in nearly every single poll (besides just one) in like the last 5-6 months, and Ernst clocking in at only 42-43% in the last 2 polls is pretty bad for an incumbent.

Oh, and Greenfield is getting 10% of 2016 Trump voters. Ernst is only getting 2% of Clinton voters.

[wbrocks67]

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.

[wbrocks67]

It's always better to be ahead than behind, but I do not like the look of those crosstabs.

For who? They objectively look way worse for Ernst in nearly every department.

Greenfield. Ernst's voters are more rock-steady. Plus, Greenfield's only at 45%.

Huh? 87% to 83% isn't that big of a difference. 4% more is literally basically the MoE here. You're saying Greenfield, the challenger, being at 45% is more of a precarious situation than Ernst, the incumbent, being at 42%, lower than where she was in June?

If you look at the crosstabs, they look awfully bad for Ernst. If 56% of people don't think you're doing enough for Iowa and you're favorability drops a net 5% since June while still losing to your challenger.... I fail to see how this is good for Ernst? You're not making sense.

[wbrocks67]

Are they doing a presidential poll today or tomorrow?

Yeah they always release them separately, so I'm gonna assume tomorrow at 7pm EST most likely

[wbrocks67]

Has Joni Ernst done enough in Congress to benefit Iowans?
56% no
33% yes
11% unsure

How is Joni Ernsts relationship with Trump?
43% about right
37% too close
4% not close enough
17% unsure

Indies: 43% too close, 37% about right, 3% not close enough

Ernst favorability: 44/40 (was 45/40 in June)
Greenfield favorability: 40/36 (was 41/20 in June)

Joni Erst approval on addressing COVID-19: 38/41 (was 42/34 in June)

Greenfield’s views?
42% about right
34% too liberal
6% not liberal enough
18% not sure

Indies: 44% about right, 25% too liberal

--

Ernst's COVID approval going from +8 to -3.... woof

[wbrocks67]

Didn't know Ernst got herself into trouble last night too...

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1307125547496083456

[wbrocks67]

Won't last, but nice to see.

That's curious, since it lasted the past *three months*

[wbrocks67]

The simple truth is, a Democrat at 45% in Iowa just won’t win the election. This isn’t a bad poll for Greenfield, but it’s *not* enough. Also, the Republican incumbent’s standing doesn’t matter that much. Two years ago, people seized on Reynolds being at 41%. It didn’t end up mattering.

Reynolds at 41% isn't so well

An incumbent down 2 and at 41% overall? Not hard to read the writing on the wall here.

The incumbent governor at 41% is hardly encouraging for Iowa Republicans.

...

Ernst is only at 42% which is not at all good for an incumbent. This poll is terrible for Ernst.

At least she’s doing a point better 

There's a few things different about that poll though. They had 28-32% of voters on each side saying they could change their mind. It's about half that now, 13-16%, with Greenfield still leading.  Reynolds also had a +8 favorable rating. Ernst is at 0.  Hubbell also only lead Indies by 6 in that poll while Greenfield leads right now by 15.

Ernst can absolutely still win, especially with Iowa's slight D polling bias, but Greenfield is in a decently better position than Hubbell was in 2018, and likewise, Ernst in slightly worse than Reynolds