IA SEN - DMR Poll: Greenfield +3

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I want to see the Presidential numbers here and see if Greenfield is still running ahead of Biden by a decent amount

Ernst will win imo

Thank you for needlessly quoting me to say that.

[Bootes Void]

But I’m sure SCOTUS will change all of this

A quarter of Trump voters in Iowa are pro choice

[republican1993]

i still see ernst winning this unless greenfield gets closer to 50

[Ferguson97]

Conducted before RBG died so it's useless, but if this holds it's disastrous for Republicans.

[Horus]

Won't last, but nice to see.

[xavier110]

i still see ernst winning this unless greenfield gets closer to 50

The insight!

[wbrocks67]

Won't last, but nice to see.

That's curious, since it lasted the past *three months*

[VAR]

The simple truth is, a Democrat at 45% in Iowa just won’t win the election. This isn’t a bad poll for Greenfield, but it’s *not* enough. Also, the Republican incumbent’s standing doesn’t matter that much. Two years ago, people seized on Reynolds being at 41%. It didn’t end up mattering.

Reynolds at 41% isn't so well

An incumbent down 2 and at 41% overall? Not hard to read the writing on the wall here.

The incumbent governor at 41% is hardly encouraging for Iowa Republicans.

...

Ernst is only at 42% which is not at all good for an incumbent. This poll is terrible for Ernst.

At least she’s doing a point better 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The simple truth is, a Democrat at 45% in Iowa just won’t win the election. This isn’t a bad poll for Greenfield, but it’s *not* enough. Also, the Republican incumbent’s standing doesn’t matter that much. Two years ago, people seized on Reynolds being at 41%. It didn’t end up mattering.

Reynolds at 41% isn't so well

An incumbent down 2 and at 41% overall? Not hard to read the writing on the wall here.

The incumbent governor at 41% is hardly encouraging for Iowa Republicans.

...

Ernst is only at 42% which is not at all good for an incumbent. This poll is terrible for Ernst.

At least she’s doing a point better 

I agree. people are falling for the same Lucy with the football that is Iowa polling again

[Pericles]

The simple truth is, a Democrat at 45% in Iowa just won’t win the election. This isn’t a bad poll for Greenfield, but it’s *not* enough. Also, the Republican incumbent’s standing doesn’t matter that much. Two years ago, people seized on Reynolds being at 41%. It didn’t end up mattering.

Reynolds at 41% isn't so well

An incumbent down 2 and at 41% overall? Not hard to read the writing on the wall here.

The incumbent governor at 41% is hardly encouraging for Iowa Republicans.

...

Ernst is only at 42% which is not at all good for an incumbent. This poll is terrible for Ernst.

At least she’s doing a point better 

I agree. people are falling for the same Lucy with the football that is Iowa polling again

That race to be fair was a statistical tie in polling. If Greenfield can hold onto a lead, it's easier to see her actually winning.

[tagimaucia]

Not sure what to make of Ernst’s 44-44 favorability. So many “not sures.”  In the final 2018 poll Reynolds was at 54-41, which maybe should have been a strong sign she was going to win, regardless of the topline numbers (almost impossible to lose as any kind of an incumbent with 54% favorables I’d think). In this case, idk what to expect other than a very close result one way or the other .

[wbrocks67]

The simple truth is, a Democrat at 45% in Iowa just won’t win the election. This isn’t a bad poll for Greenfield, but it’s *not* enough. Also, the Republican incumbent’s standing doesn’t matter that much. Two years ago, people seized on Reynolds being at 41%. It didn’t end up mattering.

Reynolds at 41% isn't so well

An incumbent down 2 and at 41% overall? Not hard to read the writing on the wall here.

The incumbent governor at 41% is hardly encouraging for Iowa Republicans.

...

Ernst is only at 42% which is not at all good for an incumbent. This poll is terrible for Ernst.

At least she’s doing a point better 

There's a few things different about that poll though. They had 28-32% of voters on each side saying they could change their mind. It's about half that now, 13-16%, with Greenfield still leading.  Reynolds also had a +8 favorable rating. Ernst is at 0.  Hubbell also only lead Indies by 6 in that poll while Greenfield leads right now by 15.

Ernst can absolutely still win, especially with Iowa's slight D polling bias, but Greenfield is in a decently better position than Hubbell was in 2018, and likewise, Ernst in slightly worse than Reynolds

[MT Treasurer]

Regardless of who actually ends up winning (I think it’ll be Ernst by a margin close to Reynolds' 2018 result), this race is obviously much closer than it would be if the national environment was more favorable to Republicans than in 2018 or the GCB/national race was much tighter than expected. That is a more important takeaway than whether it’s Ernst or Greenfield who is leading narrowly.

[Xing]

A 3-point lead isn’t quite enough to give me confidence, but it does suggest this race is at least close.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not satisfied. Unless she's leading by 5-6 points, I'm not a believer here.
I want to see something outrageous like 51 Greenfield 45 Ernst or 48 Greenfield 42 Ernst

[Harvey Updyke Jr🌹]

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Selzer & Co on 2020-08-17

Summary: D: 45%, R: 42%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Figueira]

Well, it's too bad that this poll was conducted before the Supreme Court existed. Those were simpler times when there were only two branches of government.

[RINO Tom]

RINO Tom’s absentee ballot to the rescue for Joni!  Lol

[Sir Mohamed]

DMR is the gold standard, but IA polling has often overestimated Dems. Seat is winnable, but better not getting hopes up here. We have see how numbers go from now to late October. If these numbers hold or Greenfield slightly expands the lead, Ernst might actually end up losing.