2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Bootes Void]

Another note on Texas...

In like a week, Texas has jumped to the 2nd highest percent of the 2016 vote at 38.3%.  Only trailing Vermont.  Obviously Texas is a rapidly growing state but still it seems clear that GOP efforts to suppress the vote have failed spectacularly.  

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Reminds of me of what happend in Wisconsin earlier this year

[Bootes Void]

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems

I look at county results. If Biden is crazy turnout in all urban/suburban Texas counties then thats bad news for republicans. Getting into the weeds about gender age or race can be misleading

[Bootes Void]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

High Republican turnout...

It's  a Texas suburb an county that is about R+10 but that doesn't mean everyone voting early is republican. There are plenty of Dems voting in the suburbs and are probably a majority right now

[Bootes Void]

Brace yourself that early voting numbers will significantly drop off the closer Election Day comes ...

The „record-breaking“ early vote we see right now will look much smaller and realistic then (except maybe in TX).

Yeah I think we all have that in mind

[Bootes Void]

Day 6 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 18)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   384,618     19.2%
2016:   527,631     23.6%
2018:   468,549     20.0%
2020:   628,708     25.3%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   228,376     19.4%
2016:   311,307     24.2%
2018:   307,342     23.0%
2020:   341,607     24.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   195,494     21.3%
2016:   255,371     24.4%
2018:   226,845     20.7%
2020:   270,323     22.7%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   109,697     17.3%
2016:   212,995     29.4%
2018:   203,582     26.2%
2020:   234,016     27.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   112,644     24.6%
2016:   178,634     33.3%
2018:   172,344     29.7%
2020:   206,513     31.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     87,078     22.5%
2016:   127,965     27.5%
2018:   127,253     25.6%
2020:   180,768     32.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     50,387     13.1%
2016:     87,796     20.5%
2018:     85,809     18.8%
2020:   101,868     20.9%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     58,486     19.2%
2016:     84,770     25.0%
2018:     70,384     19.5%
2020:     88,103     22.5%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     54,904     21.7%
2016:     96,042     32.0%
2018:     99,877     30.0%
2020:   123,561     32.8%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     22,291     12.4%
2016:     36,474     18.5%
2018:     33,492     16.2%
2020:     47,280     21.6%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     31,966     16.7%
2016:     40,856     20.5%
2018:     40,934     20.0%
2020:     54,214     25.6%

No updates at this time from Fort Bend, Galveston, Montgomery & Tarrant

Is this a share of total RV voters or % previous election totals?

[Bootes Void]

I'm laughing about how one user made one post randomly declaring a 600K lead in Florida was the
the tipping point and now it's a tenet of the Atlas holy book.

I wouldn't feel good about Bidens chances if I was supporting him unless he was upwards of 750k vbm. Florida 2016 and 2018 were both unfavorable for democrats and they really do have to over perform with that in mind. Florida tends to do its own thing.

Do people keep ignoring the polling and make up their own metrics and go by that.

[Bootes Void]

Hurray, 30 million votes!
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1318324373309296640

[Bootes Void]

we'll see how Miami dade goes along with the other counties when they are fully in.

I think as a whole alot of mail ballot voters will shift to in person voters unless  they have mailed in their ballots

[Bootes Void]

Florida in-person EV: Day 2 as of 11:40 AM

Rep 47,943
Dem 37,917
NPA/Other 16,993
Total 102,853

Cumulative total:

Rep 200,986
Dem 190,532
NPA/Other 75,220
Total 466,738

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

safe to say, republicans are churning out their votes on Day 2 so far

alot of smaller Florida counties arent reporting their in person results, I wonder whats going on there

[Bootes Void]

Battleground Texas? Doesn't feel like it
https://twitter.com/BruinEric/status/1318582956152156162?s=19

TargetSmart is absolute trash. Bury it in the ground and absolutely burn it

[Bootes Void]

What I really want to see is Texas getting to 6.5 or 7 million early votes.

In that case, if the Biden/Trump ratios we've seen from polls hold, Biden would win unless turnout substantially exceeds 2016 in Trump's favor on election day.

That’s exactly the posts that I’m warning you guys of ...

The early vote is not a monolithic bloc in favour of Biden !

We don’t know who these voters are, how many independents voted and how they voted !

Yeah we know but generally higher turnout is good for Biden especially in the urban areas. There are alot of Democrats who live in Texas but have never voted because the state was never competitve

[Bootes Void]

Is mail voting slowing down. I think in Florida, Wisconsin and a few other it has or do people procrastinate by sending it later

[Bootes Void]

The races in 2014,2016 and 2018 were all extremely close but yes people should keep this in mind.

I mean on paper, the numbers look good for Dems but obviously you'll never know how those individuals will vote

[Bootes Void]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

[Bootes Void]

Ralston reported that Reps beat Dems 2-1 in Washoe today.

yeah:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318765844831244289

Is this only inperson? I mean once again Dems do better with vbm in Nevada as well

[Bootes Void]

[tweet]

Ughhhh.

For the 100th time: these lines are an abomination !

I wonder when the US will have a system in place like other civilized Western countries that allow people to go in, vote and leave within 5 minutes ?

2050 ?

2100 ?

I mean it's early voting and alot of people want to vote right away. Most states don't go on full capacity until election day

[Bootes Void]

online voting seems like a bad idea. Im against it.

[Bootes Void]

Georgia: As of noon, 81,335 votes have been cast in Georgia (in-person & mail). Total EV as of noon is 1,993,380.

already exceeded clinton total and will exceed trump's total tommorow

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318985598787530752

Wait, the 600k meme started outside of atlas?

alot of political memes and political talking points that I have seen outside of atlas seems to be originally first comes to atlas then spreads out. the internet world(political) is much smaller than you would think. i see atlas talking points being repeated on twitter, reddit, predictit and comments in political articles like as if its a cycle.

as for the 600k meme, I have no idea of how people came up with that number. its like somebody here  said dems need 600k before election and everyone like "okay well roll with it" without even thinking why that it is it

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1318655274576711680

51% turnout almost 2 weeks from Election Day seems pretty good.

Does Falls Church have a reputation as a bellweather? Curious as to why its brought up so much here.

falls church is a typical affluent "whole foods" well educated suburb in northern VA. A lot of political reporters probably live near here and this area exemplify the typical college educated suburb that you hear so much about

[Bootes Void]

Top 10 states (as of yesterday; share of '16 total vote):

TX: 59.3
VT: 53.4
NJ: 50.4
NM: 47.8
MT: 47.1
GA: 45.9
NC: 45.2
TN: 42.6
VA: 39.3
IA: 38.5

Hmmm, looks like VA really slowed down.

Does VA have in-person turnout?

[Bootes Void]

Any early voting updates from Ohio?

[Bootes Void]

The Democrats lead is down to 11% in Florida!!! The In person vote is cutting into democrats lead slowly but surely...Can Trump close the gap? Hopefully but we will see!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/htmlview?pru=AAABdWY-2lM*RELmuWopShoDq9-h3Bl_Tw#

F**k.
And to think people still believe Florida will flip.

jesus christ guys wasnt this something we should all be expecting. dems lead by vbm, but republicans will make it up in person. anyway the daily ballots being processed have increased and should continue  till election day

[Bootes Void]

I do know some things about Texas politics, fwiw, and you might have remembered me from threads in 2014 or 2016 or 2018 (maybe further back than that!) pouring cold water on "Texas is going blue" ideas. I freely admit that until, like, the last two weeks of 2018 I wasn't taking Beto O'Rourke as seriously as I should've been, but eventually came pretty close to nailing the margin (I had Cruz by 4 at the end, still underestimating Beto but not by a lot).

I'm saying that to say that anyone who isn't taking the prospect of Biden winning Texas this time seriously as a real possibility is not "a spoilsport" or a "pessimist" or something. You're actually just flat out wrong. Trump might well pull off Texas, but if he does, it'll be by the absolute skin of his teeth on a 7 or 8 point swing against him. Trump winning Texas by, like, 5+ points is just not going to happen and you're living under a rock and completely ignorant of what's going on in Texas if you aren't seeing what's happening here.

I think we all missed the obvious signs for Texas.

Changing demographics?  Check
Large cities and big suburbs?  Check
Educated population?  Check
In-migration from blue states?  Check

I think people think of Texas as a rural state but it's a lot more urban than a state like Michigan or even North Carolina.

Romney did better relatively in Texas than any Republican in history other than George W Bush though.

Romney assuming he is genuinely himself fits the sunbelt suburban voters like a glove, so no surprise he did well in Texas

[Bootes Void]

Elections project hasn't updated a couple states