CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[jamestroll]

It would be absolutely insulting to your supporters and your staff to drop out of a Virginia Governor race because of what happened in a state on the other side of the country that is around 21 points more Democratic

Let’s not get carried away lol

That’s like saying obama should have suspended campaign after 2012 Wisconsin recall

The Virginia Gubernatorial Election will be extremely close and it is anyone's game..

but I am afraid Youngkin will be governor either way.. his supporters are scary and will do anything to win.. even if it is via a coup

[jamestroll]

Highly underrated reason why Democrats have done so well in VA:

They do surprisingly well in rural VA. Especially east of the "mountains".

[jamestroll]

My predictions in Nova for VA-Gov:

Fairfax 59 to 40 mcauliffe
Loudoun 53 to 46 mcauliffe
Prince William 55 to 44 mcauliffe
Arlington 72 to 27 mcauliffe
Alexandria 74 to 25 mcauliffe

Hopefully that will be enough to win but thats cutting it close.

[Roll Roons]

It would be absolutely insulting to your supporters and your staff to drop out of a Virginia Governor race because of what happened in a state on the other side of the country that is around 21 points more Democratic

Let’s not get carried away lol

That’s like saying obama should have suspended campaign after 2012 Wisconsin recall

The Virginia Gubernatorial Election will be extremely close and it is anyone's game..

but I am afraid Youngkin will be governor either way.. his supporters are scary and will do anything to win.. even if it is via a coup

It's preposterous to suggest Youngkin could take power in that manner. If his supporters attempted another Republican insurrection, state and federal forces would intervene to remove them immediately.

Also I really don't think Youngkin's supporters are nearly as cultish as Trump's.

[Devout Centrist]

There are approximately 209k VBM ballots left to count in Orange County. I think these ballots will favor 'Yes' overall, but by a much smaller margin than the in-person votes. We shall find out around 5:30 PDT

Weren't the "drop off/mail in the absentee ballot day of" group of people pretty R leaning in 2020?  I remember AZ and NC moved toward Trump with the latest-cast mail votes. 

Yeah, especially in Arizona. I wouldn't make comparisons to those states though, since CA Dems enjoy a robust voter registration advantage.

 Late VBM data is looking much more favorable for Republicans, but their total returns were still outpaced by Democrats overall. Might lower the overall margin to 23-25 points in the end.



(Credit to PDI)

[Matty]

Where can I find how my own town of mission viejo voted?

Lol

[Pres Mike]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

[soundchaser]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

Yes, unless they don’t.

[BigSerg]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

Yes. VOTO LATINO

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

[Хahar 🤔]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

No. Patterns in California have not borne any relationship to nationwide patterns in a quarter century.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

I imagine Merced and San Bernardino will flip, unsure on riverside and orange

[E-Dawg]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

I imagine Merced and San Bernardino will flip, unsure on riverside and orange

Its gonna be really bizarre if Newsom wins Orange and Riverside but loses San Bernardino. San Bernardino has consistently voted left of those two counties, why does it seem like that won't be the case here?

[BigSerg]

And just like that, California has proven again it is the best state. And Republicans got this blowing up in their faces big time. You love to see it.

I just went through the last 20+ pages. As the recall election was happening overnight here in Germany, I left my computer at page 61 and opened it back up after having breakfast, avoiding any newsheadlines and see how things were developing. Certainly a lot of fun.

Bad take, but you're German so you don't have much knowledge of the US. The margins in the Latino vote are horrible for the Democrats, really not a good election result.

[Skill and Chance]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

Orange likely doesn't flip (because much more of the vote is already in).  All the others likely do. 

[Greedo punched first]

How high was Hispanic turnout in Southern California?

[Crumpets]

Here's the current 2020-2021 swing map. Looks like the huge D counting advantage in Lake County from 2020 is holding strong while we're waiting for later results.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

How likely do you guys think it is that the below counties will flip to Yes when all the votes are counted?

Merced: NO 50.1-49.9 (69% of vote in)
San Bernardino: NO 52.0-48.0 (60% of vote in)
Riverside: NO 52.4-47.6 (62% of vote in)
Orange: NO 52.6-47.4 (75% of vote in)

Are the votes yet to be counted in these places expected to be heavily Republican?

I imagine Merced and San Bernardino will flip, unsure on riverside and orange

Its gonna be really bizarre if Newsom wins Orange and Riverside but loses San Bernardino. San Bernardino has consistently voted left of those two counties, why does it seem like that won't be the case here?

In the 2010 census San Bernardino is 49.2% hispanic, compared to 45.5% in Riverside. Hispanics being the most pro recall group might be the difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs need to cut into their deficit at the state legislature level, because even R areas have D state reps, we have a Supermajority Legislature and just recalling the Gov isn't gonna do it

[Skill and Chance]

Here's the current 2020-2021 swing map. Looks like the huge D counting advantage in Lake County from 2020 is holding strong while we're waiting for later results.

Interesting.  Suggests the path forward for R's is trying to make it Bay Area vs. everyone else.  Do you have this for 2018-21 as well?

[BigSerg]

I really think Trump's lack of involvement in the campaign hurt the Republicans. If he had been more active in the campaign, white voters would have increased their turnout and the gains with Latino votes would have been maintained.

They would still lose, but by a more decent margin.

[Vosem]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

Possibly within California itself, but probably not outside of it. Note that CA swung the opposite way of the US as a whole at the last two presidential elections (2016/2018).

[Matty]

Are Latinos going to end up voting to the right of the result?

When was the last time that happened in ANY state? Lmao

the trendsarereal poster……has it lasted more than 4 hours?

[Crumpets]

Here's the current 2020-2021 swing map. Looks like the huge D counting advantage in Lake County from 2020 is holding strong while we're waiting for later results.

Interesting.  Suggests the path forward for R's is trying to make it Bay Area vs. everyone else.  Do you have this for 2018-21 as well?

I don't, but Adam Griffin posted this late last night. Don't know how much of the vote has come in since this map was made, but I don't think it was a ton.

Welp, the 2018-2021 swing map has changed quite a bit since that preliminary one. At least we know a lot of the ED vote is now in!

[Badger]

Majority of Faulconer voters voted No on Question 1.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1437992528570105856?s=20

 Is insert standard caviot regarding large margin of air among small subsample sizes