MT (Civiqs) - Daines +2
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VAR
VARepublican
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« on: July 14, 2020, 07:24:35 AM »
« edited: July 14, 2020, 07:29:01 AM by VARepublican »

Civiqs/Daily Kos
July 11-13
873 RV
MoE: 4.2%

Daines 49%
Bullock 47%
Unsure 2%
Someone else 1%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MT_banner_book_2020_07_ba6t8k.pdf
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YE
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2020, 07:26:43 AM »

If Daines is at 49%, Bullock is done.

With that said, the presidential number is very encouraging.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2020, 07:28:09 AM »
« Edited: July 14, 2020, 07:32:18 AM by TrendsareUsuallyReal »

Theyíre the only pollster not seeing any ticket splitting so far. Also, the polling at the end of the 2016 gubernatorial race wasnít so hot for Bullock but he pulled it out by 4% anyway.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2020, 07:44:15 AM »

Its within the margin of error
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2020, 07:51:16 AM »

Lean R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2020, 07:53:50 AM »


No it's not, its within margin of error. Cook has this as tossup

49 Daines
47 Bullock is +/-3 points margin of error
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2020, 07:54:14 AM »

This and Kansas are probably the two Senate races where Iím most interested in seeing how a likely voter screen impacts the public polls.
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2020, 07:55:46 AM »

No way is Bullock is doing only two points better than Biden. This probably seems a bit closer to the truth than the Presidental poll, but I think they're both somewhat off.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2020, 08:01:46 AM »

No way is Bullock is doing only two points better than Biden. This probably seems a bit closer to the truth than the Presidental poll, but I think they're both somewhat off.

Yeah, if Biden is only losing the prez race by 4, can't imagine Bullock loses
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2020, 08:11:42 AM »

Ds must stop believing that Trump is a typical R, he isnt Jeb, Rubio or Christie.  Trump only won with Gary Johnson on the ballot taking votes away from Hilary in AZ, FL, NC, WI, MI, PA. Margin of error just like this poll, Bullock can win.

Made rookie mistakes in appointing Flynn, Sarah Huckabee Sanders wasnt a real Press Secretary and botching the Pandemic. Which Rubio would have handled better
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2020, 09:07:01 AM »

If Daines is at 49%, Bullock is done.

With that said, the presidential number is very encouraging.

>July 14, 2 points behind
>ĒBullock is doneĒ

Ridiculous
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2020, 09:27:52 AM »

Well, thatís different.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2020, 09:31:26 AM »

If Daines is at 49%, Bullock is done.

With that said, the presidential number is very encouraging.

Nah, he's within the MoE. This is one poll 3.5 months ahead of the election. No reason to panic. This race is a pure tossup. Sure, Bullock could lose, but I see the chances at 50/50.
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TML
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2020, 09:32:39 AM »

Whatís weird about this poll is that Republican candidates are leading among non-Whites. Normally, one would expect non-Whites to be more D-leaning than Whites (in MT, the biggest non-White group is Native Americans, and that has historically been a reliably Democratic cohort in this state).
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YE
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2020, 09:38:18 AM »

If Daines is at 49%, Bullock is done.

With that said, the presidential number is very encouraging.

>July 14, 2 points behind
>ĒBullock is doneĒ

Ridiculous

Thatís what I get for waking up early in the morning and instantly reacting as soon as the poll comes out.
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WD
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« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2020, 10:55:56 AM »

Junk poll. If Trump is only winning by 4 points Daines is a goner. No way Bullock loses with those numbers.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2020, 01:43:57 PM »

Junk poll. If Trump is only winning by 4 points Daines is a goner. No way Bullock loses with those numbers.

This. Bullock will do a lot better than Joe Biden, regardless of who wins the senate race. And I keep repeating it: He's by far the best recruit this cycle.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2020, 04:29:31 PM »

Lean D->Tilt D
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2020, 04:41:56 PM »

Thereís virtually no path to re-election for Daines
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2020, 06:33:14 PM »

The Senate, Gubernatorial, and House numbers are all plausible, but the Presidential numbers are definitely off.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: July 17, 2020, 11:09:56 AM »

Predictable overreactions in this thread. When the general consensus is that Bullock (like most victorious MT Democrats in a competitive race) is leading by a somewhat narrow but more importantly extremely consistent margin of 2-4 points, youíll obviously get a Daines +1 or +2 poll once in a while. Iím not old enough to remember the last time things worked out well for a MT Republican when a R+2 poll was the best they could cling to, and somehow I doubt it will suddenly be different in the midst of a Democratic landslide.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2020, 11:17:22 AM »

Predictable overreactions in this thread. When the general consensus is that Bullock (like most victorious MT Democrats in a competitive race) is leading by a somewhat narrow but more importantly extremely consistent margin of 2-4 points, youíll obviously get a Daines +1 or +2 poll once in a while. Iím not old enough to remember the last time things worked out well for a MT Republican when a R+2 poll was the best they could cling to, and somehow I doubt it will suddenly be different in the midst of a Democratic landslide.

What would be your honest prediction about this race? Assuming the national environment doesn't change much (if it even has a severe effect on this election). I believe it's a pure tossup and could go either way.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2020, 05:30:49 PM »

MT has moved to the right, that's why Tester barely won in 2018. Bullock was up by 4 to 7 points earlier in the yr, but it's back to an even race now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2020, 10:07:04 PM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Civiqs on 2020-07-13

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: July 24, 2020, 02:38:43 PM »

Predictable overreactions in this thread. When the general consensus is that Bullock (like most victorious MT Democrats in a competitive race) is leading by a somewhat narrow but more importantly extremely consistent margin of 2-4 points, youíll obviously get a Daines +1 or +2 poll once in a while. Iím not old enough to remember the last time things worked out well for a MT Republican when a R+2 poll was the best they could cling to, and somehow I doubt it will suddenly be different in the midst of a Democratic landslide.

What would be your honest prediction about this race? Assuming the national environment doesn't change much (if it even has a severe effect on this election). I believe it's a pure tossup and could go either way.

The only two advantages Daines has over Rosendale is that the NRSC is actually taking the race seriously (they really blew it in 2018, any serious person could have told you that Tester wasnít safe or heavily favored just because Zinke or unbeatable titan Fox didnít run) + that he has way more cash (Rosendale was outspent really badly). Daines' favorability ratings are also a little higher than Rosendale's, but he hasnít really done a good job of responding to the barrage of attack ads which any Republican in a competitive election in this state has to deal with.

On the other hand, Daines' advantages are to a large extent offset by Bullock's favorability/approval numbers being higher than Tester's + the fact that the environment is even worse for Republicans than in 2018, so itís really a draw in many ways. Bullock is also the more charismatic candidate/skilled messenger/shrewd tactician of the two (heís really baiting Republicans into making healthcare a major issue of the campaign, and theyíre falling for it).

I do think it will be closer than the 2018 race, but I see Daines coming up just short (1- to 2-point loss) while Gianforte prevails narrowly (2- or 3-point win) and Trump wins by 8 points. IMO PPP's numbers (they have a good track record in Montana) are closest to the current state of the three races and jibe with everything else Iíve seen/heard: Trump +9 / Bullock +2 / Gianforte +4.
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