IA (Spry Strategies, American Principles) - Greenfield +2

[Lisa's voting Biden]

This is a Republican internal.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1286074586765889536?s=20

[S019]

Lol, if Ernst can't lead in her own internals, she's in an even worse spot than I thought, this remains a tossup, but even though I'm a skeptic on Iowa in general, I'm starting to warm to the idea that Greenfield is a favorite, right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news, Greenfield great fit for IA

[wbrocks67]

Ernst just seems like a horrible fit for IA, and it's starting to feel like she got increasingly lucky against a bad opponent in 2014.

[WD]

The fact the Trump is down 2 in a R internal is even worse. At this point it’s more likely that Biden gets 400EVs than Trump gets re-elected.

[Horsemask]

Same pollster has Trump down 2 in Iowa and up 5 in Michigan, so I don't buy anything they're putting out.

[Oryxslayer]

Same pollster has Trump down 2 in Iowa and up 5 in Michigan, so I don't buy anything they're putting out.

They also 'forgot' to include Warnock in their blanket GA primary poll. They are a firm founded in 2018 with only four polls published before today.

[Xing]

A very sketchy pollster, but in an environment this bad for Republicans, I buy Ernst being in trouble, and the rightward trend in IA might not be enough to save her. Greenfield would probably be a one-termer, but I’ll take a six-year loan, especially if it means kicking out Ernst.

[RINO Tom]

As someone who lived in Iowa from 1998 to 2019, I genuinely have no idea why so many here see it as this clearly Republican state now ... I mean, it's not the type of state where you can whip out a spreadsheet of trends and swings and make a good prediction, IMO.

[Xing]

As someone who lived in Iowa from 1998 to 2019, I genuinely have no idea why so many here see it as this clearly Republican state now ... I mean, it's not the type of state where you can whip out a spreadsheet of trends and swings and make a good prediction, IMO.

I mean, the results from 2014-2018 certainly mean something, no?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are R internal polls, Bullock has a better than 50 percent chance in MT, these are D polls

[Roll Roons]

As someone who lived in Iowa from 1998 to 2019, I genuinely have no idea why so many here see it as this clearly Republican state now ... I mean, it's not the type of state where you can whip out a spreadsheet of trends and swings and make a good prediction, IMO.

I mean, the results from 2014-2018 certainly mean something, no?

2014 was because Democrats didn't seriously contest the gubernatorial race and Biff Brady was a dumpster fire of a candidate. And Hillary was just really hated. 2018 results were actually decent for Iowa Democrats. They flipped two House seats and won three statewide races. I think it's tilt Trump, but it's certainly not out of reach for Biden.

[MT Treasurer]

So much overarching Atlas "analysis" in one thread based on one obvious junk/meme pollster (unless you believe Trump is going to win MI by 5 and lose IA by 2, that Peters is going to outperform Biden by 15 points, that GA is more Republican than IA, etc.).

[Xing]

As someone who lived in Iowa from 1998 to 2019, I genuinely have no idea why so many here see it as this clearly Republican state now ... I mean, it's not the type of state where you can whip out a spreadsheet of trends and swings and make a good prediction, IMO.

I mean, the results from 2014-2018 certainly mean something, no?

2014 was because Democrats didn't seriously contest the gubernatorial race and Biff Brady was a dumpster fire of a candidate. And Hillary was just really hated. 2018 results were actually decent for Iowa Democrats. They flipped two House seats and won three statewide races. I think it's tilt Trump, but it's certainly not out of reach for Biden.

I mean, sure, candidate quality didn’t help Democrats, but I don’t think that completely explains the margins, nor the fact that Reynolds held on in a great year for Democrats. At this point, yes, Greenfield and Biden could win IA, but that says more about the national environment than anything else. IA would not be close to a Toss-Up in a neutral environment.

[RINO Tom]

So much overarching Atlas "analysis" in one thread based on one obvious junk/meme pollster (unless you believe Trump is going to win MI by 5 and lose IA by 2, that Peters is going to outperform Biden by 15 points, that GA is more Republican than IA, etc.).

Should we all be deferring to your “analysis” (which 90% of the time just seems to be mocking anyone who questions the majority opinion on a state) and keep our mouths shut?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So much overarching Atlas "analysis" in one thread based on one obvious junk/meme pollster (unless you believe Trump is going to win MI by 5 and lose IA by 2, that Peters is going to outperform Biden by 15 points, that GA is more Republican than IA, etc.).

Should we all be deferring to your “analysis” (which 90% of the time just seems to be mocking anyone who questions the majority opinion on a state) and keep our mouths shut?

Yes, speak when spoken to.

[DINGO Joe]

So much overarching Atlas "analysis" in one thread based on one obvious junk/meme pollster (unless you believe Trump is going to win MI by 5 and lose IA by 2, that Peters is going to outperform Biden by 15 points, that GA is more Republican than IA, etc.).

Should we all be deferring to your “analysis” (which 90% of the time just seems to be mocking anyone who questions the majority opinion on a state) and keep our mouths shut?

Over on the Prez poll boards, there has been quite a bit of picking apart of this out of nowhere pollster.  Having said that, Ernst is and should be in trouble.