Predictable overreactions in this thread. When the general consensus is that Bullock (like most victorious MT Democrats in a competitive race) is leading by a somewhat narrow but more importantly extremely consistent margin of 2-4 points, you’ll obviously get a Daines +1 or +2 poll once in a while. I’m not old enough to remember the last time things worked out well for a MT Republican when a R+2 poll was the best they could cling to, and somehow I doubt it will suddenly be different in the midst of a Democratic landslide.
What would be your honest prediction about this race? Assuming the national environment doesn't change much (if it even has a severe effect on this election). I believe it's a pure tossup and could go either way.
The only two advantages Daines has over Rosendale is that the NRSC is actually taking the race seriously (they really blew it in 2018, any serious person could have told you that Tester wasn’t safe or heavily favored just because Zinke or unbeatable titan Fox didn’t run) + that he has way more cash (Rosendale was outspent really badly). Daines' favorability ratings are also a little higher than Rosendale's, but he hasn’t really done a good job of responding to the barrage of attack ads which any Republican in a competitive election in this state has to deal with.
On the other hand, Daines' advantages are to a large extent offset by Bullock's favorability/approval numbers being higher than Tester's + the fact that the environment is even worse for Republicans than in 2018, so it’s really a draw in many ways. Bullock is also the more charismatic candidate/skilled messenger/shrewd tactician of the two (he’s really baiting Republicans into making healthcare a major issue of the campaign, and they’re falling for it).
I do think it will be closer than the 2018 race, but I see Daines coming up just short (1- to 2-point loss) while Gianforte prevails narrowly (2- or 3-point win) and Trump wins by 8 points. IMO PPP's numbers (they have a good track record in Montana) are closest to the current state of the three races and jibe with everything else I’ve seen/heard: Trump +9 / Bullock +2 / Gianforte +4.
