2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[MillennialModerate]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

[Mr.Phips]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

Override theshhold is 67% in KS vs 60% in MD.

[Schiff for Senate]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

My mistake (but then Phips' comment explains it, then - MD Democrats' majority comfortably clears the MD override threshold, whereas KS Republicans' majority clears the KS override threshold more narrowly).

[Oryxslayer]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

My mistake (but then Phips' comment explains it, then - MD Democrats' majority comfortably clears the MD override threshold, whereas KS Republicans' majority clears the KS override threshold more narrowly).

A less meaningful but additional piece of the puzzle is that the smaller the chamber - and KS chambers are slightly smaller than MD - the more powerful a single legislators voice becomes.

[Skill and Chance]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

My mistake (but then Phips' comment explains it, then - MD Democrats' majority comfortably clears the MD override threshold, whereas KS Republicans' majority clears the KS override threshold more narrowly).

A less meaningful but additional piece of the puzzle is that the smaller the chamber - and KS chambers are slightly smaller than MD - the more powerful a single legislators voice becomes.

Yes, the ridiculously small TX and CA state senates are perhaps the best example of this. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1490807054025510920?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIl...

https://twitter.com/Jason_Tidd/status/1490800245818761218?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIl...

Apparently there is trouble even in the 'easier' chamber. There still isn't yet a 27th vote to override.  

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1490830590584958976?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIl...

Further updates - the Senate GOP is now losing votes because the caucus is getting tired of forced sitting around in the chamber waiting for someone to show up who likely wouldn't change the outcome. House schedule has delayed resumption until 8pm, which suggests they might or might not take up the vote depending on the senate.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1490830590584958976?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIl...
Further updates - the Senate GOP is now losing votes because the caucus is getting tired of forced sitting around in the chamber waiting for someone to show up who likely wouldn't change the outcome. House schedule has delayed resumption until 8pm, which suggests they might or might not take up the vote depending on the senate.

This is incredible. What a disaster. Ad Astra 2 is screwed. If the Senate votes to override the veto, there's no guarantee the House will follow suit. If the House follows suit, the map will die in court. It seems there is a very strong possibility the Senate doesn't get the votes and the map dies tonight.

This is not a fight worth putting up, and I don't know why the KS GOP pushed this map so hard when a least change option was presented and would've easily passed.

[BoiseBoy]

Another update. Thompson showed up and voted yes, Masterson switched his vote to a no:

https://twitter.com/sherman_news/status/1490835814187737091?s=20&t=eIbNnqMwj...

[BoiseBoy]

Senate adjourned for the day. The vote to override the veto failed today with 26/27 needed "ayes", but because of Masterson's vote switch, they can reconsider tomorrow.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate voted to adjourn for the day.

House to convene at 8pm. They could take it up or wait for the senate to give it another go tomorrow. There was some reporting that the body was following the Senate's lead. If it fails in the House then the senate probably doesn't pick it back up tomorrow.

[IAMCANADIAN]

If you are a GOP member of the state senate, why would you not override the veto?

Does anybody have any idea what these members are thinking?

[Oryxslayer]

If you are a GOP member of the state senate, why would you not override the veto?

Does anybody have any idea what these members are thinking?

One cited "good government." Another we knew defected based on the long wait. One no was the speaker of course, for legalistic reasons. But that is not all of them.

That though is just todays reasons. Whenever there are notable numbers of Kansas R's defecting from the majority votes, you can expect it traces backwards to the long term factional divides within the KS GOP in one form or another. Which is why we always expected a override to be a hurdle potentially too high to clear - though in the House not the Senate.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Ad Astra 2 is an objectively bad map. Doesn’t change the partisanship, and makes the lines more confusing for no reason or benefit. Can’t believe this is a hill they’re dying on

[lfromnj]

Ad Astra 2 is an objectively bad map. Doesn’t change the partisanship, and makes the lines more confusing for no reason or benefit. Can’t believe this is a hill they’re dying on

? It changes a map that has 1 likely D and 1 likely R to a tilt D and Safe R.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Ad Astra 2 is an objectively bad map. Doesn’t change the partisanship, and makes the lines more confusing for no reason or benefit. Can’t believe this is a hill they’re dying on

? It changes a map that has 1 likely D and 1 likely R to a tilt D and Safe R.

Barely? And it won’t last past 2022. Davis could go down, but the way northeast Kansas is trending it’s not a guarantee and likely would flip back in 2024

edit; after some messing around in Dave’s you can get a solid enough 4-0 map. Does require some octopus arms, but I managed to split only one county

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Davis_Hammet/status/1491112550242537475

Illinois tier corruption.

[Torie]

The above is an internecine fight?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Davis_Hammet/status/1491112550242537475

Illinois tier corruption.

That messed up.

Question is if this passes does the House have the votes, and if that happens what will happen with the Kansas Supreme Court

I really don’t get why the KS GOP is doing all this for a map that doesn’t even help them that much and is likely to ultimately fail one way or another

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Davis_Hammet/status/1491112550242537475

Illinois tier corruption.

Steffen is under investigation for prescribing ivermectin for COVID.

Senate Bill 381 would allow physicians to prescribe ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine for COVID without state medical board oversight, gives physicians and pharmacists immunity from civil liability and medical board disciplinary action due to prescribing ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine for COVID, and retroactively rescinds state medical board actions taken against physicians that prescribed  ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine for unapproved purposes (e.g.COVID) Yikes!

http://kslegislature.com/li/b2021_22/measures/documents/sb381_00_0000.pdf

https://kansasreflector.com/2022/02/06/how-would-the-kansas-goat-doctor-have-behaved-in-office-the-answer-is-mark-steffen/

[Oryxslayer]

The easier chamber to override has now cleared their threshold, 27-11.

[BoiseBoy]

The easier chamber to override has now cleared their threshold, 27-11.

Chances that the House fails to do it? If they don't, the KS SC will surely strike the map down if it gets litigated to there. This is not a fight worth being in, what the f**k is the KS GOP's problem?

[Oryxslayer]

The easier chamber to override has now cleared their threshold, 27-11.

Chances that the House fails to do it? If they don't, the KS SC will surely strike the map down if it gets litigated to there. This is not a fight worth being in, what the f**k is the KS GOP's problem?

They didn't have the votes the first time, and apparently when they were whipping over the weekend 3 State Reps didn't even bother to return the calls - and they can only lose 2. We shall see, but there was never expected to be any trouble in the senate and yet their was, so there's a good chance there isn't the votes in the House.


House is adjourned to 11am tomorrow, so solid chance we see some rumors come out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ad Astra 2 is an objectively bad map. Doesn’t change the partisanship, and makes the lines more confusing for no reason or benefit. Can’t believe this is a hill they’re dying on

? It changes a map that has 1 likely D and 1 likely R to a tilt D and Safe R.

Barely? And it won’t last past 2022. Davis could go down, but the way northeast Kansas is trending it’s not a guarantee and likely would flip back in 2024

edit; after some messing around in Dave’s you can get a solid enough 4-0 map. Does require some octopus arms, but I managed to split only one county

The real way to ensure no Dems is elected is placing Wyandotte in KS-01. But that's a bold step that would be very unlikely to get all the votes it needs to pass an override. Many rural legislators would likely dislike that a lot.

[patzer]

Ad Astra 2 is an objectively bad map. Doesn’t change the partisanship, and makes the lines more confusing for no reason or benefit. Can’t believe this is a hill they’re dying on

? It changes a map that has 1 likely D and 1 likely R to a tilt D and Safe R.

Barely? And it won’t last past 2022. Davis could go down, but the way northeast Kansas is trending it’s not a guarantee and likely would flip back in 2024

edit; after some messing around in Dave’s you can get a solid enough 4-0 map. Does require some octopus arms, but I managed to split only one county

The real way to ensure no Dems is elected is placing Wyandotte in KS-01. But that's a bold step that would be very unlikely to get all the votes it needs to pass an override. Many rural legislators would likely dislike that a lot.

It occurs to me that one could theoretically justify putting Wyandotte into KS-01 with the logic/excuse of making a minority-influence district! You can combine the Hispanic population in Southwest Kansas with that in Kansas City and Topeka into one district.

In this map the 1st would be only 57% white (down from 64% in 2010), and there's a good chance it could become majority-minority by the end of the decade. https://davesredistricting.org/join/9329dff6-da7e-40fa-be98-e29009c8fc41

KS-01: Trump +16 in 2016; Trump +10 in 2020
KS-02: Trump +20 in 2016; Trump +14 in 2020
KS-03: Trump +19 in 2016; Trump +14 in 2020
KS-04: Trump +26 in 2016; Trump +21 in 2020