2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

My attempt in making a 3-0 R gerrymander. Trump won all seats comfortably. 



https://davesredistricting.org/join/9607d73b-cb57-4033-88d1-13c70806c6f9

[BoiseBoy]

We will likely see draft Kansas maps on January 18.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1481814757359427589?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

We will likely see draft Kansas maps on January 18.

Realistically, there's 4 options. Least Change, Lawrence-Kansas City Dem pack that protects KS-02, swap parts of outer Johnson county for Red rurals to the north, and using the 1st to crack Kansas City. Dems would likely fight like hell to get power into the hands of a favorable Supreme Court, if its the last option.

[Nyvin]

My humble opinion of it is that they won't crack KS-3, mostly because it can't be done with just two districts, KS-1 is needed since Wichita anchors the 4th district where it is.  I don't think the rural legislators are going to be keen on giving their district a bunch of suburbia.

Even then if the northeast is perfectly divided between the three seats it ends up being something like three Biden 42-43% districts, which given the horrific trends in the KC metro for Republicans isn't something that seems very appealing to them.

On top of that there's Kelly's veto to overcome, the liberal state supreme court, and Kansas doesn't have any reputation for nasty gerrymanders.   

I think they'll take Harvey County out of KS-4 though for safety measures.

[lfromnj]

My humble opinion of it is that they won't crack KS-3, mostly because it can't be done with just two districts, KS-1 is needed since Wichita anchors the 4th district where it is.  I don't think the rural legislators are going to be keen on giving their district a bunch of suburbia.

Even then if the northeast is perfectly divided between the three seats it ends up being something like three Biden 42-43% districts, which given the horrific trends in the KC metro for Republicans isn't something that seems very appealing to them.

On top of that there's Kelly's veto to overcome, the liberal state supreme court, and Kansas doesn't have any reputation for nasty gerrymanders.  

I think they'll take Harvey County out of KS-4 though for safety measures.

 I mean the obvious choice from a partisan perspective while still keeping other concerns is not a full crack but just draw a whole county map with Johnson County streching down south to a Biden +1 . seat. The 1st district can take Wyandotte and probably Riley County. That still keeps it at a Safe R Trump +27 with little trends.


The 2nd district was Romney +17 and Trump +16 in 2020 so no trends there either.
The Wichita district had a small Dem trend to Trump +20 from Romney +24 but nothing you can do there. The 3rd district went from a massive Romney +20 to Biden +1 though entirely powered by JoCo. The remaining 20% of the district actually swung 13 points right.

Obviously the KC GOP would need the 2/3 veto and they can't get that along with the court concerns

Overall even a full gerrymander wouldn't crack the Wichita district. Its only like 4 points right of the state.

[GALeftist]

To be honest I'd be less surprised to see KS-03 take in Lawrence than to see a 4-0 map, even one like lfromnj's which imo is the most plausible option. For one thing, Kansas Republicans wouldn't have a lot of wiggle room for a 4-0 map since they'd need to override Kelly's veto. Is it really possible that no incumbents would pitch a fit at taking in all this new territory enough to jeopardize a veto override in an already famously unstable supermajority? There's obviously also major risk for such a map in the Kansas Supreme Court since it's so liberal. Packing Lawrence into KS-03 could avoid those issues altogether and shore up KS-02, which could plausibly get hairy at some point over the next decade. Still think least change is most likely, though.

[Nyvin]

My humble opinion of it is that they won't crack KS-3, mostly because it can't be done with just two districts, KS-1 is needed since Wichita anchors the 4th district where it is.  I don't think the rural legislators are going to be keen on giving their district a bunch of suburbia.

Even then if the northeast is perfectly divided between the three seats it ends up being something like three Biden 42-43% districts, which given the horrific trends in the KC metro for Republicans isn't something that seems very appealing to them.

On top of that there's Kelly's veto to overcome, the liberal state supreme court, and Kansas doesn't have any reputation for nasty gerrymanders.  

I think they'll take Harvey County out of KS-4 though for safety measures.

 I mean the obvious choice from a partisan perspective while still keeping other concerns is not a full crack but just draw a whole county map with Johnson County streching down south to a Biden +1 . seat. The 1st district can take Wyandotte and probably Riley County. That still keeps it at a Safe R Trump +27 with little trends.


The 2nd district was Romney +17 and Trump +16 in 2020 so no trends there either.
The Wichita district had a small Dem trend to Trump +20 from Romney +24 but nothing you can do there. The 3rd district went from a massive Romney +20 to Biden +1 though entirely powered by JoCo. The remaining 20% of the district actually swung 13 points right.

Obviously the KC GOP would need the 2/3 veto and they can't get that along with the court concerns

Overall even a full gerrymander wouldn't crack the Wichita district. Its only like 4 points right of the state.

But even then, what does this accomplish?   Johnson moved 11 points left from 2016 to 2020 and shows no signs of slowing down, also it's actually growing quite a bit unlike those southern rurals that are shrinking. 

They would really disrupt all those established areas just for a quite small chance of flipping the seat?   Sharice Davics is super popular and won't be easy to take down.

[lfromnj]

My humble opinion of it is that they won't crack KS-3, mostly because it can't be done with just two districts, KS-1 is needed since Wichita anchors the 4th district where it is.  I don't think the rural legislators are going to be keen on giving their district a bunch of suburbia.

Even then if the northeast is perfectly divided between the three seats it ends up being something like three Biden 42-43% districts, which given the horrific trends in the KC metro for Republicans isn't something that seems very appealing to them.

On top of that there's Kelly's veto to overcome, the liberal state supreme court, and Kansas doesn't have any reputation for nasty gerrymanders.  

I think they'll take Harvey County out of KS-4 though for safety measures.

 I mean the obvious choice from a partisan perspective while still keeping other concerns is not a full crack but just draw a whole county map with Johnson County streching down south to a Biden +1 . seat. The 1st district can take Wyandotte and probably Riley County. That still keeps it at a Safe R Trump +27 with little trends.


The 2nd district was Romney +17 and Trump +16 in 2020 so no trends there either.
The Wichita district had a small Dem trend to Trump +20 from Romney +24 but nothing you can do there. The 3rd district went from a massive Romney +20 to Biden +1 though entirely powered by JoCo. The remaining 20% of the district actually swung 13 points right.

Obviously the KC GOP would need the 2/3 veto and they can't get that along with the court concerns

Overall even a full gerrymander wouldn't crack the Wichita district. Its only like 4 points right of the state.

But even then, what does this accomplish?   Johnson moved 11 points left from 2016 to 2020 and shows no signs of slowing down, also it's actually growing quite a bit unlike those southern rurals that are shrinking.  

They would really disrupt all those established areas just for a quite small chance of flipping the seat?   Sharice Davics is super popular and won't be easy to take down.

Davids ran even with Biden. Not bad for a district that has an R downballot lag but she's hardly massively popular like what Joe Cunningham managed to do. She would probably go down for 2022. The only reason I wouldn't it call it Likely R(by probability) is that Laura Kelly will still definetely win the district by a few points. It would likely flip back if trends continue in 2024 although its possible a Republican could hold it. As I said this is a hypothetical exercise but from a  partisanship perspective it doesn't really make sense to sink KS03 yet as its clear that a Republican could still win a JoCo whole district if it has rurals attached to it. The rest of Kansas doesn't really have too strong trends so the map would still end up as 3-1 anyway.

Obviously I would say it is better from a partisanship perspective to sink KS03 then to do a least change which just removes Miami County and the most red parts of JoCo which makes it Biden +14. Maaybe on the very edge of the playing field but pretty close to Safe D.  Due to that it just makes more sense to sink it with Lawrence which is what I expect.

Overall from a GOP perspective

Biden +1 KS03 > Biden +20 KS03,> Biden +13 KS03.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1483466488954634241

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1483466792324456457?s=20

[Gracile]

Joe Szymanski is a terrible source; take everything he says with a grain of salt.

[lfromnj]

Joe Szymanski is a terrible source; take everything he says with a grain of salt.

Obviously for map outcome
https://twitter.com/BrianAmos/status/1483489041379172355

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/loud_light/status/1483504938315616257?s=20
That KS-3 seat is still about D+9 I believe. Hoffman says he would not vote for it today. Map is DOA.

[BoiseBoy]

Second map:

[BoiseBoy]

3rd map:

[GALeftist]

What is the point of splitting Wyandotte and Johnson if you're just going to make the Johnson district lean/likely D anyway? These are so hideous and for what

[Brittain33]

That 3rd map is EVERYTHING, KS-1 has to have maximum acreage

[Nyvin]

Third map looks like a Dem plan.

[Gass3268]

Both Republican maps would get struck down by the Kansas State Supreme Court.

[Brittain33]

Third map looks like a Dem plan.

Yes, I came to that conclusion a few seconds after my previous post.

[OBD]

Second map:

That 3rd doesn't look terrible for us? Yeah it takes in some rurals but also adds some of Wyandotte, so past 2022 it should be fine?

[Sol]

Second map:

That 3rd doesn't look terrible for us? Yeah it takes in some rurals but also adds some of Wyandotte, so past 2022 it should be fine?

FWIW there are some Trump 2020 bits of Wyandotte, and it looks like some of those areas are in 3. Though it probably doesn't make that much of a difference.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently the House submitted a fourth map, but I can't find it.

[Nyvin]

On the second map looks like KS-3 is about Biden+4.5 or so, hard to tell the lines in Wyandotte.

Did they really split Lawrence on the first map?  Wtf, why?

[GALeftist]

On the second map looks like KS-3 is about Biden+4.5 or so, hard to tell the lines in Wyandotte.

Did they really split Lawrence on the first map?  Wtf, why?

The guy who proposed it was supposed to present a gerrymander, but missed the memo and had to use one he had left over from 2011 instead