2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[lfromnj]

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article246347750.html

Kansas GOP admitted they wanted to gerrymander the 4th seat. This is obviously a stupid pipe dream due to the make up of the KS supreme court.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article246347750.html

Kansas GOP admitted they wanted to gerrymander the 4th seat. This is obviously a stupid pipe dream due to the make up of the KS supreme court.

inb4 the GOP sticks Reno and Wyandotte counties in the same district in a hopeless proposal that never has a chance of becoming law

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcab32e6-9cb5-450e-ba8f-4a0ea0e1a4b2
least change map aimed at reducing county splits

[lfromnj]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article250672709.html

A potential Republican recruit to oppose Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids chairs the Kansas House committee that will redraw the boundaries of her district for the 2022 election.

Still feel fairly confident that kansas R infighting over small parochial stuff+ courts will stop it.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article250672709.html

A potential Republican recruit to oppose Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids chairs the Kansas House committee that will redraw the boundaries of her district for the 2022 election.

Still feel fairly confident that kansas R infighting over small parochial stuff+ courts will stop it.

Even if the veto somehow gets overriden, there is serious PA/NC potential here with the state supreme court being effectively 5D/2R!

[Jamison5]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/112485f7-66b3-44db-adb2-4e181504c043
This gives up the 3rd district while making the 2nd safe and trend-proof. It is splitting both Johnson and Shawnee though and does not have a good shape.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/112485f7-66b3-44db-adb2-4e181504c043
This gives up the 3rd district while making the 2nd safe and trend-proof. It is splitting both Johnson and Shawnee though and does not have a good shape.

More generally, giving up the 3rd sounds like a good idea, tactically.
Both parties have more to gain than lose from a solid 3R-1D.

[S019]

While this map is now out of date due to 2019 population being out, I do think the KSGOP could do something like this, and it is basically incumbent protection, Davids gets a solid Dem seat, every Republican incumbent gets a solid GOP seat. Davids' seat moves west to take in Topeka and cuts Johnson and Wyandotte in very specific ways to pick up the most D areas in those counties, which are of course, still trending D.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7a3bd7d9-7f17-4634-9802-7661e6a7d4fc

[Former President tack50]

For fun here is a fair Kansas state Senate map, especially fun since it is the one state that has the most elections. It seems to me this ends up as a Dem gerrymander or some sort of R gerrymander that failed massively in 2020, though it could also just be that Kansas has a huge rural vs urban divide working in favour of Dems

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c87bebc9-580b-4c6f-bdca-858768710a20


Biden 2020 map

2020 president
Safe D: 8
Competitive: 12
Safe R: 20

Tipping point districts:

R majority: District 24 (East Wichita suburbs, Trump+8)
Tie: District 11 (Leavenworth to Kansas City, Trump+9)
D majority: District 27 (West Wichita suburbs, Trump+25)

2016 president
Safe D: 6
Competitive: 8
Safe R: 26

Tipping point districts:

R majority: District 10 (West Olathe in the Kansas city suburbs, Trump+13)
Tie: District 24 (East Wichita suburbs, Trump+17)
D majority: District 20 (South Topeka to Emporia, Trump+32)



2012 president
Safe D: 5
Competitive: 5
Safe R: 30

Tipping point districts:

R majority: District 20 (South Topeka to Emporia, Romney+25)
Tie: District 24 (East Wichita suburbs, Romney+27)
D majority: District 7 (South Overland Park, Romney+29)

[Hope For A New Era]

it could also just be that Kansas has a huge rural vs urban divide working in favour of Dems

It's that. Rural Kansas has been 80% R for decades, so with current trends, Democrats have a huge geographic advantage in the state.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's what I consider a fair and reasonably compact map for Kansas. The only split county is Johnson. Stats based on the 2020 Prez election.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/89a2dd0b-93d5-436d-8028-72266d31e91a

[Nyvin]

Here's what I consider a fair reasonably compact map for Kansas. The only split county is Johnson. Stats based on the 2020 Prez election.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/89a2dd0b-93d5-436d-8028-72266d31e91a

I'd think the KS GOP would hate this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's what I consider a fair reasonably compact map for Kansas. The only split county is Johnson. Stats based on the 2020 Prez election.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/89a2dd0b-93d5-436d-8028-72266d31e91a

I'd think the KS GOP would hate this.

"Annoy all the KS Republicans in Congress with this one simple trick. Ron Estes hates it!"

[Former President tack50]

Here's what I consider a fair and reasonably compact map for Kansas. The only split county is Johnson. Stats based on the 2020 Prez election.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/89a2dd0b-93d5-436d-8028-72266d31e91a

Even ignoring incumbents, I think the main issue is that southeast Kansas gets a very weird district. KS seems to me like a state that really asks for a 5th district (Kansas City, Topeka-Lawrence, Wichita, Rural east, Rural west), but for a 4 district map I think the best way to go is something like the current map, with the narrow eastern district.

But if you don't like that, here is another alternative albeit one that definitely does not respect COIs and is inferior to the current distribution



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e657568-e1f2-4f5b-b77d-5a3688571b0b

Splitting the Kansas City suburbs is 100% not ideal, but it works.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's what I consider a fair and reasonably compact map for Kansas. The only split county is Johnson. Stats based on the 2020 Prez election.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/89a2dd0b-93d5-436d-8028-72266d31e91a

Even ignoring incumbents, I think the main issue is that southeast Kansas gets a very weird district. KS seems to me like a state that really asks for a 5th district (Kansas City, Topeka-Lawrence, Wichita, Rural east, Rural west), but for a 4 district map I think the best way to go is something like the current map, with the narrow eastern district.

But if you don't like that, here is another alternative albeit one that definitely does not respect COIs and is inferior to the current distribution



https://davesredistricting.org/join/6e657568-e1f2-4f5b-b77d-5a3688571b0b

Splitting the Kansas City suburbs is 100% not ideal, but it works.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/365b2318-2c37-4982-8bc6-2eb7ac7741f2
Thoughts on this mockup of a 5-district map?

[Biden his time]

LOL at Kansas Republicans trying to get four R districts in Kansas.

Insta-dummymander!

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 4-district map of Kansas.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.08%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

12/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
97/100 on the Compactness Index
82/100 on County Splitting
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (DRA says Kansas is just too white for a minority district  )
12/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2012 U.S. Presidential Election in Kansas: 4R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Kansas: 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Kansas: 3R to 1D

2018 Kansas Attorney General Election: 3R to 1D

2018 Kansas Gubernatorial Election: 3D to 1R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Kansas: 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Kansas: 3R to 1D


Opinions?

[Hope For A New Era]

All districts look clean except 3rd, no county cuts except boundaries of 3rd, all districts are good fits for incumbents, all districts hold their partisanship for all data available (including 2018-gov).

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed581326-768b-448e-8a24-84cd258d82f9

[David Hume]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article250672709.html

A potential Republican recruit to oppose Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids chairs the Kansas House committee that will redraw the boundaries of her district for the 2022 election.

Still feel fairly confident that kansas R infighting over small parochial stuff+ courts will stop it.

Even if the veto somehow gets overriden, there is serious PA/NC potential here with the state supreme court being effectively 5D/2R!

The three justices Kelly nominated are up for retention election in 2022. If they strike down the GOP map, I am not sure if and how it will affect their election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I tried my hand at a fair 4-district map of Kansas.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.08%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

12/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
97/100 on the Compactness Index
82/100 on County Splitting
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (DRA says Kansas is just too white for a minority district  )
12/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2012 U.S. Presidential Election in Kansas: 4R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Kansas: 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Kansas: 3R to 1D

2018 Kansas Attorney General Election: 3R to 1D

2018 Kansas Gubernatorial Election: 3D to 1R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Kansas: 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Kansas: 3R to 1D


Opinions?

Looks nice, clean, and relatively little change, but how did Bollier not win KS-3!?

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article250672709.html

A potential Republican recruit to oppose Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids chairs the Kansas House committee that will redraw the boundaries of her district for the 2022 election.

Still feel fairly confident that kansas R infighting over small parochial stuff+ courts will stop it.

Even if the veto somehow gets overriden, there is serious PA/NC potential here with the state supreme court being effectively 5D/2R!

The three justices Kelly nominated are up for retention election in 2022. If they strike down the GOP map, I am not sure if and how it will affect their election.

Since when have voters cared about redistricting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a2721145-606a-48b2-80ca-64cd0b6322e7
Drew a State House map.

[politicallefty]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/659e50eb-01f9-449d-b65a-c73db125c0a6

I noticed a lot of the older maps in this topic are based on old population data. I decided to try a fair map for myself. It moves some counties around, but doesn't change much. It looks somewhat different because I tried to go for a minimal county split map while also trying to respect communities of interest. This map splits only Johnson County and the maximum deviation is 323. I had another version that had a somewhat more compact KS-02, but it meant taking KS-01 all the way to the Missouri border (something I was trying to avoid). The compactness score suffered on account of KS-04. It was at 96/100 on another map that splits two counties overall.

KS-01: R+25 - Trump+42.6 - Kobach+14.4
KS-02: R+10 - Trump+14.4 - Kelly+9.3
KS-03: D+3 - Biden+13.6 - Kelly+21.6
KS-04: R+14 - Trump+21.1 - Kobach+0.8

I also created a second version that keeps KS-01 and KS-04 the same as above and also only splits one county (indeed, only splitting one municipality - Olathe). Version 2.0 still splits Johnson County (and only Johnson County), but puts Wyandotte and Douglas Counties in the same district. Even with this map though, Laura Kelly still won KS-02, though by just over a point. The maximum deviation is 330.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/4a066e2a-0cbf-4336-9d2e-3a8cb6f5eb2d

KS-02: R+13.5 - Trump+20.4 - Kelly+1.3
KS-03: D+6.3 - Biden+19.4 - Kelly+28.7

[dpmapper]

Unite K-State and KU!  

In this scenario Davids's district (green) is Trump +2.3 (2020), LaTurner's (purple) is Trump +11.  

There's also a nastier version of this where KS-1 takes all of the city of Topeka in exchange for Manhattan, Junction City and several other north-central rural counties; you can get Davids's up to Trump +7 or so. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What if a republican is elected governor and some of the democrats on the court lose their retention elections?