2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[S019]

Fourth map

https://twitter.com/loud_light/status/1483507122285465602

[Gass3268]

Can anyone tell what the differences are between 3 and 4?

[Oryxslayer]

I didn't notice this earlier but GOP map 1 double-bunks Salinas-based Mann and Topeka based LaTurner.

[Adam Griffin]

Can anyone tell what the differences are between 3 and 4?

At that level of granularity, nope. But here's the broader map for both of them:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c984ae8c-283c-4cdd-85ca-22d264e9f218

CD-1: Trump +50.8, Marshall +44.5, Kobach +21.7
CD-2: Trump +7.0, Marshall +3.6, Kelly +15.0
CD-3: Biden +13.6, Bollier +13.3, Kelly +21.7
CD-4: Trump +19.0, Marshall +15.0, Kelly +1.7

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/kssenatedems/status/1483548489334374406?s=20

[Minnesota Mike]

It appears map #2 is the most serious proposal as it comes from the Republican chair. Map #1 is as close as possible to the plan passed by the House in 2012 and appears to be submitted for informational purposes more than anything else. Plans 3&4 are the Democratic and League of Women Voters plans which stand no chance in a Republican controlled committee.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It appears map #2 is the most serious proposal as it comes from the Republican chair. Map #1 is as close as possible to the plan passed by the House in 2012 and appears to be submitted for informational purposes more than anything else. Plans 3&4 are the Democratic and League of Women Voters plans which stand no chance in a Republican controlled committee.

What does Plan #2 do? Split Wyandotte?

[GALeftist]

It appears map #2 is the most serious proposal as it comes from the Republican chair. Map #1 is as close as possible to the plan passed by the House in 2012 and appears to be submitted for informational purposes more than anything else. Plans 3&4 are the Democratic and League of Women Voters plans which stand no chance in a Republican controlled committee.

What does Plan #2 do? Split Wyandotte?

Yes. Very stupid. Probably fertile ground for a lawsuit for not much partisan gain, and that's assuming they manage to override; they have, what, two votes to spare?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It appears map #2 is the most serious proposal as it comes from the Republican chair. Map #1 is as close as possible to the plan passed by the House in 2012 and appears to be submitted for informational purposes more than anything else. Plans 3&4 are the Democratic and League of Women Voters plans which stand no chance in a Republican controlled committee.

What does Plan #2 do? Split Wyandotte?

Yes. Very stupid. Probably fertile ground for a lawsuit for now much partisan gain, and that's assuming they manage to override; they have, what, two votes to spare?

I didn't really like the Democratic map drawing Crawford in with Liberal, but splitting Wyandotte like that really takes the cake.
They'd be better off packing the 3rd by restoring Lawrence to it.

[Schiff for Senate]

A fair map I drew without any regard whatsoever to political results: https://districtr.org/plan/102611. My goal was to make the 1st as big as possible while limiting county splits to the lowest amount possible there and keeping the district generally compact.

[BoiseBoy]

Ad Astra map has passed the Senate committee on a party line vote.

https://twitter.com/AndrewBahl/status/1484324858657841154?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

I assume Kelly would veto this map, right? Does the GOP have the votes to override?

[Oryxslayer]

I assume Kelly would veto this map, right? Does the GOP have the votes to override?

In theory, yes, if the full GOP stays together. In practice that may be no, we will see when a floor vote occurs. If it is a no, then this is all basically performative.

[Oryxslayer]

Senate appears to have the votes to sustainan  veto, the Ad Astra 2 plan passed 26-9. Party line vote (2 Ds 3 Rs absent) with the exception of GOP Senator Dennis Pyle.

[BoiseBoy]

Senate appears to have the votes, the Ad Astra 2 plan passed 26-9. Party line vote (2 Ds 3 Rs absent) with the exception of GOP Senator Dennis Pyle.

Why is it so hard for Kansas Republicans to be good people.

[GALeftist]

Senate appears to have the votes to sustainan  veto, the Ad Astra 2 plan passed 26-9. Party line vote (2 Ds 3 Rs absent) with the exception of GOP Senator Dennis Pyle.

Actually it's 3 Ds 2 Rs absent. Anyway the GOP needs 27 votes to override in the State Senate I believe which they should have as long as both absent GOP senators (Jeff Longbine, R-Emporia and Gene Suellentrop, R-Wichita) don't oppose the map, which seems unlikely. However, if Republicans in the State House are similarly disunited, they will not be able to override Kelly's likely veto; if they lose 3 votes from their 86 person caucus, they will be unable to override, and one senator corresponds to about three representatives.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

[Skill and Chance]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

[GALeftist]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

I wouldn't be so certain about the veto-proof bit, but otherwise yeah, you're probably right. However Kansas does have a constitutional provision against splitting municipalities for partisan gain I believe which somewhat limits what they could have done. I think it's why they didn't split Johnson

[Skill and Chance]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

I wouldn't be so certain about the veto-proof bit, but otherwise yeah, you're probably right. However Kansas does have a constitutional provision against splitting municipalities for partisan gain I believe which somewhat limits what they could have done. I think it's why they didn't split Johnson

Maybe, but Kelly has appointed 3 of the 7 justices on the state supreme court.  It looks like the 2018 election was the difference between a 5D/2R and a 5R/2D court (though this is less explicit in the KS system than, say, the NC or TX systems).

[Tekken_Guy]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

I wouldn't be so certain about the veto-proof bit, but otherwise yeah, you're probably right. However Kansas does have a constitutional provision against splitting municipalities for partisan gain I believe which somewhat limits what they could have done. I think it's why they didn't split Johnson

I was expecting at best Johnson and a bunch of rurals.

The bigger question is why they put Lawrence in the 1st and Kansas City in the 2nd rather than the other way around?

[BoiseBoy]

Kansas House Redistricting Committee has advanced the garbage Ad Astra 2 map.

It will likely pass the full House and Senate, get vetoed by Kelly, with her veto being overridden, and finally with the fairly-liberal Kansas Supreme Court striking down the map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kansas House Redistricting Committee has advanced the garbage Ad Astra 2 map.

It will likely pass the full House and Senate, get vetoed by Kelly, with her veto being overridden, and finally with the fairly-liberal Kansas Supreme Court striking down the map.

It's far from impossible the KS House sustains her veto, but in general, you're correct here.
The map is dead anyway.

[BoiseBoy]

Kansas House has voted to adopt the Ad Astra 2 map by a 79-37 margin. Having passed the Kansas Senate 26-9, the map now goes to Kelly's desk to likely be vetoed. Both chambers did not vote for the map with a veto-proof majority, so this could get interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

Notably while the senate had a working supermajority - their additional votes were just absent - the state house does not. They lost several R's and are 5 votes short of an override. So this is likely the death of Ad Astra.