COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Yippy skippy. The Centers for Disease Control recommend wearing them.

After the CDC rejected the WHO's tests and used its own botched tests instead, I don't place very much faith in the CDC.

I just love how instead of making sure we had enough tests, everyone just resorted to authoritarian measures instead.

Most of the people ordering lockdowns had very, very minimal ability to increase testing capacity.

I'm still much more confident in the CDC than I am in the opinions of anybody on this forum.

[Grassroots]

Yippy skippy. The Centers for Disease Control recommend wearing them.

After the CDC rejected the WHO's tests and used its own botched tests instead, I don't place very much faith in the CDC.

I just love how instead of making sure we had enough tests, everyone just resorted to authoritarian measures instead.

The WHO is a puppet of the Chinese government.

[Badger]

Yippy skippy. The Centers for Disease Control recommend wearing them.

After the CDC rejected the WHO's tests and used its own botched tests instead, I don't place very much faith in the CDC.

I just love how instead of making sure we had enough tests, everyone just resorted to authoritarian measures instead.

The WHO is a puppet of the Chinese government.

Citation needed.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Debatable semantics. Regardless, it's a damn sight closer to inconvenience than so-called authoritarianism.

Admittedly, there's a time and place for masks. Even the WHO recommends masks for healthcare workers. They usually wore masks anyway.

Working around dust should cause someone to wear a mask, but it's not because of viruses.

Workers in meatpacking plants used to wear hazmat suits. I don't know why they stopped.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Yippy skippy. The Centers for Disease Control recommend wearing them.

After the CDC rejected the WHO's tests and used its own botched tests instead, I don't place very much faith in the CDC.

I just love how instead of making sure we had enough tests, everyone just resorted to authoritarian measures instead.

The WHO is a puppet of the Chinese government.

Citation needed.

WHO has been very... deferential to China but that's not an excuse for keyboard warriors to dismiss their public health advice wholesale.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1261053426475003904?s=21

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am personally fine with continuing to wear a mask in public. I actually think I look better with one on. It covers my schnoz that I am so insecure about.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8:

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9:

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)

5/10: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,367,638 (+20,329 | Δ Change: ↓20.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,787 (+750 | Δ Change: ↓47.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.94%)

5/11:

• Cases: 1,385,834 (+18,196 | Δ Change: ↓10.49% | Σ Increase: ↑1.33%)
• Deaths: 81,795 (+1,008 | Δ Change: ↑34.40% | Σ Increase: ↑1.25%)

5/12:

• Cases: 1,408,155 (+22,321 | Δ Change: ↑22.67% | Σ Increase: ↑1.61%)
• Deaths: 83,377 (+1,582 | Δ Change: ↑56.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)

5/13:

• Cases: 1,430,348 (+22,193 | Δ Change: ↓0.57% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 85,197 (+1,820 | Δ Change: ↑15.44% | Σ Increase: ↑2.18%)

5/14 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,456,828 (+26,480 | Δ Change: ↑19.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 86,901 (+1,704 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑2.00%)

5/15 (Today):

• Cases: 1,483,736 (+26,908 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑1.85%)
• Deaths: 88,479 (+1,578 | Δ Change: ↓7.39% | Σ Increase: ↑1.82%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Just like the right-wingers you usually rail on about, you have a tough time distinguishing "authoritarianism" from "inconvenience".

Eighteen months is more than just an "inconvenience."

It's two pregnancies. Are you saying that the right-wing will be okay with unlimited abortions after a woman's first pregnancy, so that she can avoid being "inconvenienced" by a second one?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It now seems pretty apparent that for children, covid-19 is less lethal than chickenpox.  The CDC reports that 8 children age 1-14 have died from covid (out of the first ~60,000 US deaths), compared to 50-100 children who died every year from chickenpox prior to the adoption of a vaccine (and thousands who were hospitalized).  

And yet, parents deliberately exposed their children to chickenpox for generations because they wanted them to acquire immunity and we knew that it was much more dangerous to get it as an adult.  Isn’t the exact same thing true of covid, and to an even greater extent given that covid is actually much more lethal to adults than chickenpox?

The smart thing would be to set up summer camps where kids will be exposed to coronavirus, and they can acquire immunity away from the threat of infecting adults, and then come back to school in the fall with complete safety.   The camps could be staffed by people who have immunuty already, and if you excluded children who were already immunocompromised, you’d probably have less than 100 deaths across the entire country.   Schools could reopen immediately and completely, and an entire generation of people could participate fully in society without fear of infecting themselves or others.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

So you ram through a House bill that garners 14 Dem No’s and which you know is DOA in the senate for what reason? Stop playing politics, Nancy. Shame! Shame! Shame!

[emailking]

So you ram through a House bill that garners 14 Dem No’s and which you know is DOA in the senate for what reason?

So they can pass their own bill that then goes to Conference with the House Bill such that a compromise bill that will pass both Houses can be hashed out.

[Horus]

It now seems pretty apparent that for children, covid-19 is less lethal than chickenpox.  The CDC reports that 8 children age 1-14 have died from covid (out of the first ~60,000 US deaths), compared to 50-100 children who died every year from chickenpox prior to the adoption of a vaccine (and thousands who were hospitalized).  

And yet, parents deliberately exposed their children to chickenpox for generations because they wanted them to acquire immunity and we knew that it was much more dangerous to get it as an adult.  Isn’t the exact same thing true of covid, and to an even greater extent given that covid is actually much more lethal to adults than chickenpox?

The smart thing would be to set up summer camps where kids will be exposed to coronavirus, and they can acquire immunity away from the threat of infecting adults, and then come back to school in the fall with complete safety.   The camps could be staffed by people who have immunuty already, and if you excluded children who were already immunocompromised, you’d probably have less than 100 deaths across the entire country.   Schools could reopen immediately and completely, and an entire generation of people could participate fully in society without fear of infecting themselves or others.

Nah that's too easy, Cuomo said this is the new normal so we have to change everything about our lives and never gather in large groups again. Forever. It's the new normal.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It now seems pretty apparent that for children, covid-19 is less lethal than chickenpox.  The CDC reports that 8 children age 1-14 have died from covid (out of the first ~60,000 US deaths), compared to 50-100 children who died every year from chickenpox prior to the adoption of a vaccine (and thousands who were hospitalized).  

And yet, parents deliberately exposed their children to chickenpox for generations because they wanted them to acquire immunity and we knew that it was much more dangerous to get it as an adult.  Isn’t the exact same thing true of covid, and to an even greater extent given that covid is actually much more lethal to adults than chickenpox?

The smart thing would be to set up summer camps where kids will be exposed to coronavirus, and they can acquire immunity away from the threat of infecting adults, and then come back to school in the fall with complete safety.   The camps could be staffed by people who have immunuty already, and if you excluded children who were already immunocompromised, you’d probably have less than 100 deaths across the entire country.   Schools could reopen immediately and completely, and an entire generation of people could participate fully in society without fear of infecting themselves or others.

Fauci tells Senate not to underestimate COVID-19’s effect on children

WHO says there's 'no evidence' recovered coronavirus patients won't get reinfected

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

WHO says there's 'no evidence' recovered coronavirus patients won't get reinfected

This WHO statement from weeks ago has been thoroughly discredited, as has every other early panicked headline about reinfection.

Every real shred of evidence (including the Science article posted in this thread earlier today) overwhelmingly supports practically universal immunity.

As of course, does the basic fact that we have 4.5 million confirmed infections and zero confirmed examples of reinfection; imagine what we’d say if a vaccine trial revealed zero infections among the first 4.5 million trials.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Disney will now make masks mandatory indefinitely for access to any of their parks, or properties. They will also enforce social distancing and check temps of every guest who enters, as well as reduce capacity by probably as much as half as part of their negotiations with the workers unions.

No timetable on when they will reopen, but they are accepting reservations for July 1st and later.

CEO Bob Chapek said people will have to get used to the new culture of wearing masks in the park because the rules might be kept in place even after the virus is handled with a vaccine or what ever

[Devout Centrist]

So you ram through a House bill that garners 14 Dem No’s and which you know is DOA in the senate for what reason? Stop playing politics, Nancy. Shame! Shame! Shame!

You are consistently the worst contributor to these threads. Are you capable of forming more than one thought at once?

[emailking]

Hope Bandit3's not a Disney fan. 😷

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A serologic study of four Boston zip codes found that 9.9% of asymptomatic people tested had coronavirus antibodies, and 2.6% tested as currently infected with the virus.

For comparison, 1.6% of Boston residents were previously confirmed covid cases.

Boston Mayor Walsh mentioned this was actually a slightly lower number than he expected; he guessed that 15-20% of Bostonians would have antibodies in a larger sample.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/05/15/coronavirus-in-boston-10-of-bostonians-have-covid-antibodies/

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Starting to get states in Australia with zero cases.



Moving towards eradication with no cases at all in South Australia and ACT.



Western Australia has no hospital cases.

Some predictive graphs for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 148,500

UK has now stopped reporting Active cases altogether. No recovery data. No active cases. This suggests a lack of a pre-planned coordinated response. The data is most likely so bad and confused that they have decided not to release it at all. They have some of the top scientists in the world in the area, but the medical system has been flooded by the looks.


France



France 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,000

France on it's way down still.


Germany



Germany 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 9,500

Germany easily the most organised country in Europe dealing with the response with the corresponding lowest death rate. The data was clean start to finish.


Spain



Spain 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 31,500

Spain on it's way clear of the virus in June.


Italy



Italy 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 67,200

Italy nearly clear of the main event. Recoveries coming in thick and fast.


USA



USA 15 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 652,000

A lumpy decline due to the weekly reporting natural wavelength within the dataset. The US is declining at a slower rate than initially predicted.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[YE]

So you ram through a House bill that garners 14 Dem No’s and which you know is DOA in the senate for what reason? Stop playing politics, Nancy. Shame! Shame! Shame!

Maybe it shouldn’t be DOA in the Senate.

It’s like everything is somehow Pelosi’s fault when she’s passed dozens of bills this session that the Senate refuses to consider.

[Brittain33]

It now seems pretty apparent that for children, covid-19 is less lethal than chickenpox.  The CDC reports that 8 children age 1-14 have died from covid (out of the first ~60,000 US deaths), compared to 50-100 children who died every year from chickenpox prior to the adoption of a vaccine (and thousands who were hospitalized).  

And yet, parents deliberately exposed their children to chickenpox for generations because they wanted them to acquire immunity and we knew that it was much more dangerous to get it as an adult.  Isn’t the exact same thing true of covid, and to an even greater extent given that covid is actually much more lethal to adults than chickenpox?

While COVID-19 is very rarely lethal to children, the news this week is that a non-trivial number of children suffer something like Kawasaki syndrome weeks after infection, and this is cause for concern.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/15/coronavirus-children-

More to the point, it's hubris to think we know so much about the disease now in month 5 that we can start to recommend people get infected. We simply don't know what the long-term consequences of this illness are for people because it's too early.

[Grassroots]

Disney will now make masks mandatory indefinitely for access to any of their parks, or properties. They will also enforce social distancing and check temps of every guest who enters, as well as reduce capacity by probably as much as half as part of their negotiations with the workers unions.

No timetable on when they will reopen, but they are accepting reservations for July 1st and later.

CEO Bob Chapek said people will have to get used to the new culture of wearing masks in the park because the rules might be kept in place even after the virus is handled with a vaccine or what ever

Why? What's wrong with these people?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SGoodlookings/status/1261709584118448128

[SnowLabrador]

This virus shows up at the perfect time to get Trump re-elected.