COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/9 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6:

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7:

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

5/8 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,321,785 (+29,191 | Δ Change: ↓1.05% | Σ Increase: ↑2.26%)
• Deaths: 78,615 (+1,689 | Δ Change: ↓20.59% | Σ Increase: ↑2.20%)

5/9 (Today):

• Cases: 1,347,309 (+25,524 | Δ Change: ↓12.56% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 80,037 (+1,422 | Δ Change: ↓15.81% | Σ Increase: ↑1.81%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Most of the recent developments have been in some sense positive, they've just been very small and very slow.

[Koharu]

My husband and I went out to the dog park today as we do pretty regularly, carefully maintaining social distancing. There were significantly more people out and about this weekend as opposed to last weekend, with lots more vehicles at the parking lots of lots of businesses. It was really quite depressing to see.

[Calthrina950]

My husband and I went out to the dog park today as we do pretty regularly, carefully maintaining social distancing. There were significantly more people out and about this weekend as opposed to last weekend, with lots more vehicles at the parking lots of lots of businesses. It was really quite depressing to see.

I've noticed this as well. At work today, there was a significantly larger number of customers than previously. My store (Home Depot) is still limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at any one time, but they've raised the limit from 100 to 150. The store is therefore filled to capacity at all times. Moreover, I noticed that there were more maskless customers than before. The majority are still wearing masks, but the stubborn, persistent minority has made their presence more known. I went to the grocery store after work, and noticed again the significantly larger number of customers. Here in El Paso County, it seems like people are trying to get back to normal as soon as possible. Our Board of Commissioners was even making calls for all dine-in restaurants to be opened now, but the County Health Department has refused to support such a move, saying we are not ready for it.

[Koharu]

My husband and I went out to the dog park today as we do pretty regularly, carefully maintaining social distancing. There were significantly more people out and about this weekend as opposed to last weekend, with lots more vehicles at the parking lots of lots of businesses. It was really quite depressing to see.

I've noticed this as well. At work today, there was a significantly larger number of customers than previously. My store (Home Depot) is still limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at any one time, but they've raised the limit from 100 to 150. The store is therefore filled to capacity at all times. Moreover, I noticed that there were more maskless customers than before. The majority are still wearing masks, but the stubborn, persistent minority has made their presence more known. I went to the grocery store after work, and noticed again the significantly larger number of customers. Here in El Paso County, it seems like people are trying to get back to normal as soon as possible. Our Board of Commissioners was even making calls for all dine-in restaurants to be opened now, but the County Health Department has refused to support such a move, saying we are not ready for it.

The frustrating thing here is that we are still completely under our safer-at-home orders, as the metrics on decreasing cases haven't been met, but people are not following those rules as willingly, which means the metrics will take even longer to be met. Ugh.

[Calthrina950]

My husband and I went out to the dog park today as we do pretty regularly, carefully maintaining social distancing. There were significantly more people out and about this weekend as opposed to last weekend, with lots more vehicles at the parking lots of lots of businesses. It was really quite depressing to see.

I've noticed this as well. At work today, there was a significantly larger number of customers than previously. My store (Home Depot) is still limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at any one time, but they've raised the limit from 100 to 150. The store is therefore filled to capacity at all times. Moreover, I noticed that there were more maskless customers than before. The majority are still wearing masks, but the stubborn, persistent minority has made their presence more known. I went to the grocery store after work, and noticed again the significantly larger number of customers. Here in El Paso County, it seems like people are trying to get back to normal as soon as possible. Our Board of Commissioners was even making calls for all dine-in restaurants to be opened now, but the County Health Department has refused to support such a move, saying we are not ready for it.

The frustrating thing here is that we are still completely under our safer-at-home orders, as the metrics on decreasing cases haven't been met, but people are not following those rules as willingly, which means the metrics will take even longer to be met. Ugh.

This much is true. As I've said before, the approach in El Paso County differs from that of other regions in my state-such as Boulder and Denver. In Denver, Mayor Michael Hancock extended the stay-at-home order beyond the state's expiration deadline (April 29); there, it ended only yesterday. Moreover, he issued his order before Polis issued his, and he has mandated mask-wearing at all businesses, in contrast to what has been done down here, where it is still voluntary. Denver has definitely taken a much more rigorous approach to it than the Springs has.

But this also speaks back to the difference in mentality that can be observed between Republican and Democratic areas. The former are much more likely to wish for a return to normality; the latter adhere much more rigorously to the guidelines laid out by the experts. Among the Republican Governors, the only ones who have most closely adhered to expert advice have been Hogan, Baker, Scott, and DeWine. Hogan and DeWine in particular, deserve praise for their responses.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

BC has done remarkably well compared to almost all other jurisdictions, but I'm worried too. The weather has gotten a lot nicer and people are definitely starting to throw caution to the wind. Beaches have been packed and people are definitely out and about.

[Grassroots]

BC has done remarkably well compared to almost all other jurisdictions, but I'm worried too. The weather has gotten a lot nicer and people are definitely starting to throw caution to the wind. Beaches have been packed and people are definitely out and about.

Warm weather also hurts the virus, so I guess it cancels out.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

BC has done remarkably well compared to almost all other jurisdictions, but I'm worried too. The weather has gotten a lot nicer and people are definitely starting to throw caution to the wind. Beaches have been packed and people are definitely out and about.

Warm weather also hurts the virus, so I guess it cancels out.

Canadian study finds temperature, latitude not associated with COVID-19 spread

[Smeulders]

Can someone with more expertise than me give any insight into how this works and what it would mean?

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1259194332793446402

Suppose you have two populations. In population A, all are normal people. Population B is split down the middle, half say hello by French kissing, the other half constantly wear a biohazard suit.

 In the initial stages of the disease, it may spread equally quickly in both populations. Let's say R0 = 3. In population A, 66% need to get the disease to push R < 1. This is different in population B. The biohazard people are not getting it, (R0 = 0) but the kissers are keeping the average up (R0 = 6). Once 83% of the kissers have the disease, herd immunity is reached, which is only 41% of the total population. By having different subpopulations with different suspectibility, the total number of people needed for herd immunity goes down. 

What this means in practice is very unclear. From what I am reading on epidemiologists Twitter feeds, they are skeptical the effect will be large. Apparently you need to have large and consistent variation between individuals for this to have a significant effect. On the other hand, you have forum experts who just heard of this effect and conclude it means herd immunity has already been achieved.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can someone with more expertise than me give any insight into how this works and what it would mean?

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1259194332793446402

Suppose you have two populations. In population A, all are normal people. Population B is split down the middle, half say hello by French kissing, the other half constantly wear a biohazard suit.

 In the initial stages of the disease, it may spread equally quickly in both populations. Let's say R0 = 3. In population A, 66% need to get the disease to push R < 1. This is different in population B. The biohazard people are not getting it, (R0 = 0) but the kissers are keeping the average up (R0 = 6). Once 83% of the kissers have the disease, herd immunity is reached, which is only 41% of the total population. By having different subpopulations with different suspectibility, the total number of people needed for herd immunity goes down. 

What this means in practice is very unclear. From what I am reading on epidemiologists Twitter feeds, they are skeptical the effect will be large. Apparently you need to have large and consistent variation between individuals for this to have a significant effect. On the other hand, you have forum experts who just heard of this effect and conclude it means herd immunity has already been achieved.

This is a preprint that has not been peer reviewed

[Smeulders]

Can someone with more expertise than me give any insight into how this works and what it would mean?

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1259194332793446402

Suppose you have two populations. In population A, all are normal people. Population B is split down the middle, half say hello by French kissing, the other half constantly wear a biohazard suit.

 In the initial stages of the disease, it may spread equally quickly in both populations. Let's say R0 = 3. In population A, 66% need to get the disease to push R < 1. This is different in population B. The biohazard people are not getting it, (R0 = 0) but the kissers are keeping the average up (R0 = 6). Once 83% of the kissers have the disease, herd immunity is reached, which is only 41% of the total population. By having different subpopulations with different suspectibility, the total number of people needed for herd immunity goes down. 

What this means in practice is very unclear. From what I am reading on epidemiologists Twitter feeds, they are skeptical the effect will be large. Apparently you need to have large and consistent variation between individuals for this to have a significant effect. On the other hand, you have forum experts who just heard of this effect and conclude it means herd immunity has already been achieved.

This is a preprint that has not been peer reviewed

The effect itself is not controversial. What the preprint adds, is fitting the data of the Covid-19 to different degrees of heterogeneity to model what is to come and at what rate of infection herd immunity appears (given those assumed degrees of heterogeneity).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

On a totally unrelated note: Happy Mother's Day, y'all!

Last year, my mother got a little bit weepy on Mother's Day, telling my brother and I that she was "so happy none of her kids were in jail."  We clearly set very high standards in our family.

On a related note: I know that it's normally a day of spending time together, but please please either stay home or at least practice proper social distancing. 

[Meclazine for Israel]

I know that it's normally a day of spending time together, but please please either stay home or at least practice proper social distancing. 

Yes Mum.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1259270620916965379

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1259463496678465537

[It’s so Joever]

May 7

New cases: 456 (-15.7%)
Total cases: 18,827

New deaths: 16 (-30.4%)
Total deaths: 960

“Real cases” 758 (-29.3%)

May 8

New cases: 548 (+20.2%)
Total cases: 19,375


New deaths: 7 (-56.3%)
Total deaths: 967


“Real” cases: 1,166 (+53.8%)

May 9

New cases: 328 (-40.1%)
Total cases: 19,703

New deaths: 4 (-42.9%)
Total deaths: 971

“Real” cases: 842 (-27.8%)


I am really liking the death number. Hopefully these trends continue. Positivity rates are also generally lowering which is a good sign of the outbreak diminishing. If things are generally fine over the next seven days, perhaps Polis’s lifting of the order was not a bad call (And I will gladly eat my crow)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Everything is fine.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1259603437664243714

[Progressive Pessimist]

Everything is fine.

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1259603437664243714

Who needs a mask when you have Jesus?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So the virus is apparently running amok in a place where they've been doing constant testing of the people who work there.  Just what do they expect to happen in workplaces that don't have access to that level of testing?

[Joe Republic]

Who needs a mask when you have Jesus?

"Trust God and go back to work. We all die eventually anyway." -- Fuzzy Bear



(Thanks, TG!)

[The Dowager Mod]

Why was my post deleted just now?  Is it because I forgot to include a direct link to the source of that Fuzzy Bear quote?

Couldn't hurt.

[Skill and Chance]

It’s also a reason for us to have a strictly enforced lockdown for a shorter period of time, as opposed to a mild-lockdown which requires months to have an impact and ironically exposes more people to the virus.

Are you saying are mild lockdowns expose more people than if we hadn't done anything?

My bad, no.
I’m saying longer mild lockdowns expose more people and hurt the economy more than shorter but stricter lockdowns.

Strict lockdowns in the international sense are likely to be unconstitutional here (though we likely could do more to formally limit travel between states and cities/coounties- for example, several of the Founding Fathers were denied entry/exit from Philadelphia for several months during the 1790's Yellow Fever outbreak).  It's also unclear to me that a strict lockdown targeting disease eradication can succeed unless your country is an island.  In most wealthy countries that aren't islands, this is about slowing it down enough to buy time until better treatments.  In that sense, we have at least partially succeeded.

At this point the rest of the free world is doing about the same thing we are: starting to open up small businesses while continuing to shut down large gatherings.  That now includes Italy and Spain!  What happened in Georgia with massage parlors, etc. in late April after only ~3 weeks of shutdown was reckless, but states that are opening with capacity restrictions this month are acting well within the international norm.  On some measures, the US stands out as aggressive.  Our rest of the academic year school closures are going to be some of the longest in the wealthy world.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Montana is allowing schools to reopen. A few districts actually have.

[Skill and Chance]

Montana is allowing schools to reopen. A few districts actually have.

I know, but it's a handful of rural schools.  Every state but MT and WY has called the public school academic year (ID apparently allowed a handful private schools to reopen with precautions).   We are talking about states with < 1% of the US population.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest predictions for Active Cases in the major countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (data source)

UK



UK 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 126,500

UK still looking at the larger numbers than initially thought because of a lower rate of decline. Need to keep an eye on where things go over the next week.


France



France 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 79,200

France on it's way down.


Germany



Germany 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,500

Germany on the path to 10% of maximum Active Cases in the next week.


Spain



Spain 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 30,000

Spain continues to decline at a slower rate.


Italy



Italy 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

Italy starting to report more recoveries to catch up.


USA



USA 10 May - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 596,000

USA has continued to decrease in number of Active Cases, albeit in a lump manner. 10% of the maximum Active Cases (494,000) predicted to occur around Jun 10.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.