COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

I would agree with this. Individual businesses should have the right to decide whether or not they will require customers to wear masks while on their premises, but government should not, at least to the extent of fining, jailing, or otherwise penalizing people for not wearing them.

Does government have the right to tell you to cover your genitals in public, including in stores? It's for hygiene right? Because, so is this.

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

[Skill and Chance]

I would agree with this. Individual businesses should have the right to decide whether or not they will require customers to wear masks while on their premises, but government should not, at least to the extent of fining, jailing, or otherwise penalizing people for not wearing them.

Does government have the right to tell you to cover your genitals in public, including in stores? It's for hygiene right? Because, so is this.

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

I'm OK with an enforceable mask law, but I prefer just encouraging private businesses to provide them to employees and throw out customers who aren't wearing them.  Make it part of the safe harbor guidelines for legal liability.

[emailking]

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

Yes of course any comparison involves 2 things that are different. 🙄

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1257432551683231759

Hard to remember that she's actually one of the most moderate to conservative Democrats in the Senate caucus.

[Calthrina950]

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

Yes of course any comparison involves 2 things that are different. 🙄

Is this meant to be sarcasm? Indecent exposure could very well be construed as sexual assault. Can the same be said about mask wearing? Especially since not everyone can wear masks, aside from the other considerations attached to them? As I've made clear before, I think businesses can require their customers to wear masks, but governments should not be tying up their resources prosecuting or penalizing people over them. There are more important considerations at hand.

[emailking]

I just hate when people dismiss a comparison by saying things like "that's not the same thing at all."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Cumulative European case & death graphs (5-day weighted average)

Deaths across all five European countries now appear to be declining rapidly.  If they continue on the current pace, they will be down to almost zero deaths in about three weeks.  America not so much.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I would agree with this. Individual businesses should have the right to decide whether or not they will require customers to wear masks while on their premises, but government should not, at least to the extent of fining, jailing, or otherwise penalizing people for not wearing them.

Does government have the right to tell you to cover your genitals in public, including in stores? It's for hygiene right? Because, so is this.

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

I'm OK with an enforceable mask law, but I prefer just encouraging private businesses to provide them to employees and throw out customers who aren't wearing them.  Make it part of the safe harbor guidelines for legal liability.

How do you propose that restaurants require people to wear masks to eat?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1257422726622519297

[Roll Roons]

https://dcist.com/story/20/05/04/virginia-gov-northam-says-state-could-start-to-reopen-economy-by-end-of-next-week/

Virginia to start first phase of reopening next Friday - safe to assume that DC and MD aren't too far behind? Doesn't really seem feasible to open up one without the other two.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/4 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24:

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25:

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3 (Yesterday): <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4 (Today):

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

[NOVA Green]

It's amazing how many posters on this thread are sitting there and debating statistics, while many of might well die (Including myself & my Wife), not to mention parents, grandparents, and siblings, all because of partisan political talking points.

The old saying is that "one or two deaths are a tragedy", "a couple hundred deaths are sad", and then
"A Hundred Thousand Deaths are a statistic"....

Granted a bit of paraphrase.... point stands....

1.) American Est WW II Combat Deaths----       292k
2.) American Est Civil War Combat Deaths--      215k
3.) American Est WW I Combat Deaths---          53.4k
4.) American Est Vietnam Combat Deaths---      47.4k


Needless to say, it would not be surprising to see once all of this is over the total COVID-19 Deaths surpass the total number of Civil War Combat Deaths by the time we hit Labor Day....

[Person Man]

The worst American pandemic was the Spanish Flu 100 years that took 600000 people. We might get close if virus wasn't really contained.

[Virginiá]

Just want to thank Arch for continuously posting an up-to-date list of new cases/deaths that even include percentage changes from the last report. It's been a very convenient way to keep track of things!

[NOVA Green]

Although naturally this huge public health crisis and massive current (and future death toll) surpasses anything beyond the expectations of Americans, not to mention the extraordinary measures that Federal, State, and Local Governments have enacted to minimize the scale of the catastrophe, at some point there becomes a credibility gap when it comes to the American Public versus some of the key public leaders who present scenarios which do not match the reality of what we are seeing and experiencing every day, not only in our local communities, but also with local, State, and Federal News agencies.

Historically in the Post WW II era, we have seen various scenarios where the pronouncements of Federal Government leaders do not match the reality on the ground.

One of the biggest initial breakdowns in trust between the American People and Federal leaders, arguably occurred under the Democratic Presidency of LBJ....

We were told that the War in Vietnam was getting better, with WH Press Conferences showing metrics about the "body counts" in Vietnam, while meanwhile the US Military is losing the War....

Arguably, Vietnam was the single biggest issue that cost LBJ credibility and paved the way for Republican "Tricky Dick Nixon" who ran on a platform of "Peace with Honor", while meanwhile he is escalating the clampdown of domestic protesters in the Campus Towns, Ghettos, and Cities....

Fine--- Johnson is out, Nixon is out... Ford is a caretaker, then we get Jimmy Carter.

Corruption done and gone, DEMs and PUBs go squeaky clean about all of the BS from the past from the FBI war against American Citizens, to CIA assassinations and coups against foreign governments.

Hit Ronald Reagan.... the actor seems all smooth and honest, while meanwhile lying and cheating and violating the US Congress to back Death Squads and Fascist Dictatorships in places like El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, while meanwhile getting caught with his hand in the cookie-jar "exchanging arms for hostages in Iran".

Bill Clinton got caught lying about a sexual affair (hell if President's were to be impeached for that we would likely have at least a dozen Presidents up to that point at a minimum who would have been impeached).

Bush Jr and WMD's..... well don't know where to go there, but had it not been for the Iraq War, Bush Jr would probably have gone down in history as a relatively mediocre President who united the Nation after 9/11 (Assuming he would have been at least paying attention to the economy and not giving the goods away to the Robber Barron Capitalists when it came to Banking Deregulation).

Reality is that Americans understand credibility and keeping honest and true with the facts....

You can't keep moving goal-posts when it comes to how many Americans are dying, claiming bogus treatments are going to solve the problem, divert & distract, etc....

The Trump Administration and the individual who the current President of the United States keeps feeding us lies (through his own mouth and not even that of his advisors!) and somehow expects that Americans will buy all of this horses**t???

John Prine, a legendary American Folk-Country Singer who recently died of COVID-19 wrote a song called the "Caravan of Fools", which might well describe the rump of the Trump coalition.

[Hammy]

I would agree with this. Individual businesses should have the right to decide whether or not they will require customers to wear masks while on their premises, but government should not, at least to the extent of fining, jailing, or otherwise penalizing people for not wearing them.

Does government have the right to tell you to cover your genitals in public, including in stores? It's for hygiene right? Because, so is this.

There is a difference between indecent exposure and mask wearing.

I'm OK with an enforceable mask law, but I prefer just encouraging private businesses to provide them to employees and throw out customers who aren't wearing them.  Make it part of the safe harbor guidelines for legal liability.

How do you propose that restaurants require people to wear masks to eat?

Restaurants should not be open at all right now for dine-in for exactly this reason.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/pompeo-says-enormous-evidence-links-virus-to-wuhan-laboratory

the Chinese gov must pay!

Trish Regan of Fox Business Interviews Donald Trump in Manchester, NH - February 10, 2020

Well, I think China is very, you know, professionally run in the sense that they have everything under control. I really believe they are going to have it under control fairly soon. You know in April, supposedly, it dies with the hotter weather. And that's a beautiful date to look forward to. But China I can tell you is working very hard.

We're working with them. You know, we just sent some of our best people over there, World Health Organization and a lot of them are composed of our people. They're fantastic. And they're now in China, and we're helping them out. We're in very good shape. We have 11 cases and most of them are getting better very rapidly.

I think they'll all be better. But, no. Our relationship with China, you know, we made a -- a great deal, a great trade deal, and our relationship on top of that is probably better with China. They respect us now. What they were getting away with was murder.

Was Mr. Trump a collaborator with the PRC government, or is he just too stupid to serve in office?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Although naturally this huge public health crisis and massive current (and future death toll) surpasses anything beyond .....

Not bad.

Interesting post.

The only thing I remember about Ronald Reagan is that after he watched Rambo: First Blood Part II in 1984 or 1985, he said "I think we need to send Sylvester Stallone to Vietnam to get our troops back". He was very "Donald Trump"-like in his blase statements.

Bill Clinton should be remembered for more than his lies about Monica Lewinsky. A classic example of where the "Woman should have been believed." I think Bill Clinton's other line later was "If Barack Obama was in my administration, he would have been serving the coffee."

We tend the remember the worst in people, but both of those Presidents laid the groundwork for the USA to become the giant behemoth of the world economically.

George W Bush mistakenly heard that "Saddam Hussein ordered geraniums from Africa" and off he went. I think George W got the raw end of the deal starting with September 11, so I always forgave the guy given the sense of national responsibility he had thrust on his shoulders in the space of 45 minutes. I don't think many people actually realise what it would be like to get the top job in the world, and then to see that happen without feeling it personally.

Barack Obama was the only normal educated one. No sexual indiscretions. No bribery of Ukrainian officials to get his relatives a job in their gas companies. No invading countries under false pretenses.

If Donald Trump loses in November, then clearly his legacy will be associated with the results of the "Corona-virus" regardless of left-wing media bias.

Abraham Lincoln is remembered for results, not how much the press hated him when he was elected.

The US election is looking more and more like a referendum on President Trumps' performance on this very issue that you raised.

[Dr. Arch]

Just want to thank Arch for continuously posting an up-to-date list of new cases/deaths that even include percentage changes from the last report. It's been a very convenient way to keep track of things!

My pleasure! I appreciate that I can contribute.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1257344749784137732?s=20

We're not going to be able to stop the Flu Klux Klan until we get rid of their Chief Cheerleader.

Trump calls protesters who carried guns into the Michigan Capitol 'very good people' and says the governor should 'make a deal' with them

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1257344749784137732?s=20

We're not going to be able to stop the Flu Klux Klan until we get rid of their Chief Cheerleader.

Trump calls protesters who carried guns into the Michigan Capitol 'very good people' and says the governor should 'make a deal' with them

I am ashamed, but not surprised this happened in our State.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/pompeo-says-enormous-evidence-links-virus-to-wuhan-laboratory

the Chinese gov must pay!

Trish Regan of Fox Business Interviews Donald Trump in Manchester, NH - February 10, 2020

Well, I think China is very, you know, professionally run in the sense that they have everything under control. I really believe they are going to have it under control fairly soon. You know in April, supposedly, it dies with the hotter weather. And that's a beautiful date to look forward to. But China I can tell you is working very hard.

We're working with them. You know, we just sent some of our best people over there, World Health Organization and a lot of them are composed of our people. They're fantastic. And they're now in China, and we're helping them out. We're in very good shape. We have 11 cases and most of them are getting better very rapidly.

I think they'll all be better. But, no. Our relationship with China, you know, we made a -- a great deal, a great trade deal, and our relationship on top of that is probably better with China. They respect us now. What they were getting away with was murder.

Was Mr. Trump a collaborator with the PRC government, or is he just too stupid to serve in office?

Why not both?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Projections. Projections. Projections.

Let's have a look at the USA today.

1.    Worldometers has made individual pages for some US states:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

New Jersey for example now has its own page:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

You can clearly see the weekly frequency response in their reported data.

So some intrepid young Atlas statistician can analyse the data more accurately for determining what is about to happen. For example, to see that the Corona-virus is receding, I would like to see reported deaths tomorrow below 2,683, the maximum reported back on April 21. If the number tomorrow is above that, then we might be looking at a continued and sustained community spread leading towards an increase in the duration of this pandemic within the USA. If it is below 2,470 reported on April 28, then that is three week-on-week decreasing numbers in succession. Tuesday appears to be the highest reporting day in the USA.

2.   CDC are pretty pessimistic with some mindblowing numbers leading into July:



CDC are predicting up to 2,500-5,000 deaths per day in June with 200,000 new cases per day. Given that the US is moving into Summer, these numbers are a little over the top. The CDC must be including non-diagnosed cases.

3.   IMHE have upped their projection to 135,000 deaths in total in the USA which is over double where it was 3-4 weeks ago:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america



The numbers from IMHE are interesting in terms of the duration of this pandemic.

4.   My own predictive graphs now have a slower decrease in Active Cases due to an increase in new cases over the last week, however, they are still the most optimistic of the bunch.



I am thinking that the US will start to follow the European experience down in May. The main reason for the increase of the last week has been the massive increase in testing in the USA.

Overall, the US is experiencing a few lumps, and we can only watch and learn from the growth curves from all 6 countries as to where this will go:



There is a possibility this can start to go back up depending on testing rates, new results, more community spread, etc. But the CDC predictions of 200,000 new cases per day is sci-fi level involving a massive acceleration of cases in May and June.

5.   Air-Worldwide (Risk analysis company for insurance and finance companies) have a dashboard where you can watch their predictions live:

https://www.air-worldwide.com/models/Life/verisk-covid-19-dashboard/

They claimed that in 2013 they predicted that if the Spanish Flu were to get going in the USA today, it would cause between 188,000 – 377,000 deaths.

If correct, they were out by no more than an order of magnitude. And they share a common feeling that that 60-80% of cases are not diagnosed, and hence, not reported. In essence, a lot of the testing is skewed towards people with symptoms, hence the snapshots we are looking at are underestimated. This depends on the country. As an example of why this would be, I don’t think Australia has the same under-reporting rate as Italy for example due to the differing pressures on their respective health systems.

Australia has tested a vast number of people who were not positive.

The current prediction or Air-Worldwide is between 7.5M-13.7M cases in the USA with a range of deaths between 76K – 320K.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Will Donald Trump have Australia's back if we enter a spat with China over the Corona-virus?

https://www.abc.net.au/qanda/2020-04-05/12190408

A couple of interesting points in the Q & A show last night:

1. Australia needs to rethink it's relationship with China;
2. The world needs an enquiry as to how the COVID-19 virus developed into a pandemic;
3. Humanity needs to work out how it happened to make certain it does not happen again.

Pretty simple really.

[T'Chenka]

Will Donald Trump have Australia's back if we enter a spat with China over the Corona-virus?

"Loyalty is for cucks." --- Donald Trump's inner monologue