COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[KaiserDave]

So it seems that antibodies aren't working in fighting the virus, according to the WHO.

Not remotely close to what they said

Don't be so quick to proliferate disinformation

Here is the article

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/17/coronavirus-antibodies-may-not-make-you-immune-who-warns/#5d603d4d133a

[Roll Roons]

Stanford study of Bay Area residents concludes that the infection rate is orders of magnitude higher than what was previously believed, making the death rate far lower.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stanford study of Bay Area residents concludes that the infection rate is orders of magnitude higher than what was previously believed, making the death rate far lower.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-2-5-to-4-2-of-santa-clara-county-residents-infected-stanford-estimates/

Unfortunately, this peer review of the study raises some doubts:

First, the false positive rate may be high enough to generate many of the reported 50 positives out of 3330 samples. Or put another way, we don’t have high confidence in a very low false positive rate, as the 95% confidence interval for the false positive rate is roughly [0%, >1.2%] and the reported positive rate is ~1.5%.

Second, the study may have enriched for COVID-19 cases by (a) serving as a test-of-last-resort for symptomatic or exposed people who couldn’t get tests elsewhere in the Bay Area and/or (b) allowing said people to recruit other COVID-19 cases to the study in private groups. These mechanisms could also account for a significant chunk of the 50 positives in 3330 samples.

Third, in order to produce the visible excess mortality numbers that COVID-19 is already piling up in Europe and NYC, the study would imply that COVID-19 is spreading significantly faster than past pandemics like H1N1, many of which had multiple waves and took more than a year to run their course.

https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/17 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16 (Yesterday): <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17 (Today): <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

[TJ in Oregon]

For those speculating on a burst of infection in Wisconsin after the primary election was held in-person, so far there doesn't seem to be any signal from it. Hopefully it will stay that way.

https://twitter.com/chadcotti/status/1251238294790311945?s=21

Look at the WSJ chart which has it by day. The dip corresponds entirely to Easter and whatever moving average has Easter in it.

[Grassroots]

Why are case rates rising so much?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1251248586328813580?s=20

[Person Man]

Why are case rates rising so much?

I wonder...

[Dr. Arch]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpers are having. Stay at Home orders are only as effective as the population allows them to be.

[Person Man]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpets are having.

And that's Altright by me!

[Grassroots]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpers are having. Stay at Home orders are only as effective as the population allows them to be.

Quite sure that's backlog, especially since IL hasn't dumped a backlog yet.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpets are having.

And that's Altright by me!

I don't think we should be wishing physical infirmity on people, even reckless possibly-bused-in ideologues.

[DINGO Joe]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpets are having.

And that's Altright by me!

I don't think we should be wishing physical infirmity on people, even reckless possibly-bused-in ideologues.

Doesn't work anyway.  They could go to the gas station or grocery store and infect non-deplorables. 

Just like this Trumpian moron:

Lawyer for Central pastor and church bucking stay-at-home order hospitalized with coronavirus

[Grassroots]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpers are having. Stay at Home orders are only as effective as the population allows them to be.

Quite sure that's backlog, especially since IL hasn't dumped a backlog yet.

Turns out this day's standout numbers in the state is due to the state dumping nursing home data.

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1251248586328813580?s=20

Hmmm, I wonder why.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Isn't there any way to assign those "new" cases to the proper days?

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest numbers from Europe and USA.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 83,172 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 15,000


France



France 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 10
Recoveries added to curve – 44,500

France has altered it's data for the previous 2-3 weeks in an attempt to smooth out lumpy data. I have added in 45,000 recoveries which brings down France dramatically in total compared to its European counterparts. This is one of the most inconsistent datasets of any country now. The response may have been good at the expense of data-reporting quality. Anyone's guess is as good as mine when it comes to France.


Germany



Germany 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,300


Spain



Spain 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 76,689 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 18,500


Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 73,400


USA



USA 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 513,571 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 133,000

USA should start showing signs of lowering in Active Cases around April 22.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[jimrtex]

For those speculating on a burst of infection in Wisconsin after the primary election was held in-person, so far there doesn't seem to be any signal from it. Hopefully it will stay that way.

https://twitter.com/chadcotti/status/1251238294790311945?s=21

The labs were working over Easter?

[Grassroots]

Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 73,400

Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

Don't get me wrong, I love your charts, and I don't doubt your knowledge, but why is your chart showing Italy's active case numbers falling but on worldmeters...



...it's showing the active cases peaking out.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Trump is unwilling to do it, why aren’t governor’s seizing control of factories in their states and forcing them to produce covid tests?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Trump is unwilling to do it, why aren’t governor’s seizing control of factories in their states and forcing them to produce covid tests?

They don't have the guts. They'd rather whine and complain.

[Grassroots]

If Trump is unwilling to do it, why aren’t governor’s seizing control of factories in their states and forcing them to produce covid tests?

That would be awesome. I expect that if the testing situation were to come to a more desperate situation then yeah, Governors would find a way.

[Holmes]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpets are having.

And that's Altright by me!

No, we want to contain the virus as quickly as possible and then control it because riht now testing is sparse and there is no cure or vaccine.

[jimrtex]

Don't get me wrong, I love your charts, and I don't doubt your knowledge, but why is your chart showing Italy's active case numbers falling but on worldmeters...

Meclazine is imputing recoveries.

If you are testing positive, within 14 to 21 days, you will either be dead or recovered.

When you are tested, there will be triage. If you are suffering severe respiratory discomfort you'll be hospitalized. You will either be rolled out on a gurney, walk out, or perhaps taken home to recuperate further.

Otherwise you will be told to go home and quarantine isolated even from your family. Keep hydrated watch your temperature, and stay inside. Your family will likely also be tested.

It is unlikely anyone will do followup or officially report a recovery.

[Nhoj]

For those speculating on a burst of infection in Wisconsin after the primary election was held in-person, so far there doesn't seem to be any signal from it. Hopefully it will stay that way.

https://twitter.com/chadcotti/status/1251238294790311945?s=21

MN has been having the same increase the last few days.