COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Roll Roons]

There's also blood plasma from recovered patients, which seems to be particularly effective.

[Grassroots]

Different, recent trial results on a clinical trial of chloroquine diphosphate.

The high dose CQ arm presented more QTc>500ms (25%), and a trend toward higher lethality (17%) than the lower dosage. Fatality rate was 13.5% (95%CI=6.9-23.0%), overlapping with the CI of historical data from similar patients not using CQ (95%CI=14.5-19.2%). In 14 patients with paired samples, respiratory secretion at day 4 was negative in only one patient. Interpretation Preliminary findings suggest that the higher CQ dosage (10-day regimen) should not be recommended for COVID-19 treatment because of its potential safety hazards.

French study finds hydroxychloroquine doesn't help patients with coronavirus.

A drug that's been touted by President Donald Trump as a "game changer" didn't help hospitalized patients with coronavirus and was associated with heart complications, according to a new study.

"This provides evidence that hydroxychloroquine does not apparently treat patients with Covid 19," said Dr. Paul Offit, an infectious disease specialist at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. "Even worse, there were side effects caused by the drug -- heart toxicities that required it be discontinued."

Trump has said that hydroxychloroquine shows "tremendous promise" and has made it sound like the drug is harmless. "I think it's going to be great," Trump said at a White House briefing on March 19.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/new-french-study-hydroxychloroquine/index.html

Damn it. What about other drugs, I remember one Japanese drug that is also being tested?

We need something if we want to go back to how it was before.

Its just one study, plus there are a ton of other treatments that have shown promising. We will have Multiple treatments by summer.

A lot of this talk about "social distancing until 2022" is frankly dumb. First of all, we aren't going to be enacting social distancing guidelines while the initial crisis is over in two months, summer will not need social distancing. The general consensus is that contact tracing will be used so that social distancing doesn't have to be. There may be occasional flare ups in local areas, and the gov could just impose stay at home orders on those local areas until the threat subsides there. This isn't even mentioning the vaccine, in which the race for it appears to be going well, and one is expected to come out in spring 2021 if not before then.

Also, https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-elderly-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-treatment-texas-city/287-7383185c-940c-4cb2-82ea-c4a5ffad3ffb

This is a positive test for hydroxc with no side effects

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Really discouraging numbers today across the board.  Already a new daily record number of deaths in the US, and a big jump in the number of cases compared to the last several days.  Also somehow a record number of new deaths in France after what had seemed like a leveling off.  No significant decrease in Italy in deaths over the last two weeks.  It seems like the only major nation showing a steady trend in the right direction is Spain (and maybe Iran).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

[KaiserDave]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

Unreported deaths/cases finally coming in

[Crumpets]

Washington State's latest update has only 89 new cases over 24 hours. That's down from over 600 per day at our peak.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1250573126884360193

[It’s so Joever]

Really discouraging numbers today across the board.  Already a new daily record number of deaths in the US, and a big jump in the number of cases compared to the last several days.  Also somehow a record number of new deaths in France after what had seemed like a leveling off.  No significant decrease in Italy in deaths over the last two weeks.  It seems like the only major nation showing a steady trend in the right direction is Spain (and maybe Iran).

Italy is actually looking like this improving. New cases per day are on a general decline and deaths will follow soon. If anything, today is more optimistic than you think. Also, if we can’t trust data from China, why the f**k can we trust data from Iran?

[Tekken_Guy]

Really discouraging numbers today across the board.  Already a new daily record number of deaths in the US, and a big jump in the number of cases compared to the last several days.  Also somehow a record number of new deaths in France after what had seemed like a leveling off.  No significant decrease in Italy in deaths over the last two weeks.  It seems like the only major nation showing a steady trend in the right direction is Spain (and maybe Iran).

I'm still thinking it's more weekend delay. There was a really bad spike of deaths in Connecticut today, while the rest of the country is stabilizing.

[Grassroots]

Really discouraging numbers today across the board.  Already a new daily record number of deaths in the US, and a big jump in the number of cases compared to the last several days.  Also somehow a record number of new deaths in France after what had seemed like a leveling off.  No significant decrease in Italy in deaths over the last two weeks.  It seems like the only major nation showing a steady trend in the right direction is Spain (and maybe Iran).

I'm still thinking it's more weekend delay. There was a really bad spike of deaths in Connecticut today, while the rest of the country is stabilizing.

The sudden bump in some state's death totals is due to states dumping all the 'probable' COVID deaths at once. First it was NY yesterday and now CT. Expect to see death tolls increase as more states do this.

[Grassroots]

Washington State's latest update has only 89 new cases over 24 hours. That's down from over 600 per day at our peak.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1250573126884360193

89 cases per day is fine for reopening the economy and schools. The west coast pact should release the measures on Washington and see how things go.

[Del Tachi]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

New York added a bunch of "probable" deaths/cases backdating all the way back to March 11.  Extremely questionable stuff.  We don't even attempt to count deaths from other respiratory diseases with such a level of precision. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

In unprecedented move, Treasury orders Trump’s name printed on stimulus checks

The Treasury Department has ordered President Trump’s name be printed on stimulus checks the Internal Revenue Service is rushing to send to tens of millions of Americans, a process that could slow their delivery by a few days, senior IRS officials said.

The unprecedented decision, finalized late Monday, means that when recipients open the $1,200 paper checks the IRS is scheduled to begin sending to 70 million Americans in coming days, “President Donald J. Trump” will appear on the left side of the payment.

It will be the first time a president’s name appears on an IRS disbursement, whether a routine refund or one of the handful of checks the government has issued to taxpayers in recent decades either to stimulate a down economy or share the dividends of a strong one.

One word ... Narcissism.

He basically sees this as bribery and hopes people see his name on the checks and credit him for it entirely just for that reason. I pray that no one buys into it. Hell, it might actually backfire since everything Trump puts his name loses value. Or maybe it could backfire since he's holding up the process for the sake of vanity.

By the way, my mom got her stimulus check today, electronically, and there was no trace of Trump's name on it. So it might not be as effective as he hopes if most people end up getting theirs directly deposited like my mom did.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

New York added a bunch of "probable" deaths/cases backdating all the way back to March 11.  Extremely questionable stuff.  We don't even attempt to count deaths from other respiratory diseases with such a level of precision.  

From the article you quoted:

People whose death certificates don’t mention the virus still are not counted. From March 11 through April 13, 8,184 city residents died of causes not classified as confirmed or probable coronavirus.

Do you have any methodological basis for questioning these results or is this more of your wishful thinking/motivated skepticism?

[GeorgiaModerate]

In unprecedented move, Treasury orders Trump’s name printed on stimulus checks

The Treasury Department has ordered President Trump’s name be printed on stimulus checks the Internal Revenue Service is rushing to send to tens of millions of Americans, a process that could slow their delivery by a few days, senior IRS officials said.

The unprecedented decision, finalized late Monday, means that when recipients open the $1,200 paper checks the IRS is scheduled to begin sending to 70 million Americans in coming days, “President Donald J. Trump” will appear on the left side of the payment.

It will be the first time a president’s name appears on an IRS disbursement, whether a routine refund or one of the handful of checks the government has issued to taxpayers in recent decades either to stimulate a down economy or share the dividends of a strong one.

One word ... Narcissism.

He basically sees this as bribery and hopes people see his name on the checks and credit him for it entirely just for that reason. I pray that no one buys into it. Hell, it might actually backfire since everything Trump puts his name loses value. Or maybe it could backfire since he's holding up the process for the sake of vanity.

By the way, my mom got her stimulus check today, electronically, and there was no trace of Trump's name on it. So it might not be as effective as he hopes if most people end up getting theirs directly deposited like my mom did.

A bit of advice, courtesy of various building contractors in NYC and New Jersey: be sure to cash any check with Donald Trump's name on it as soon as possible.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/15 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15 (Today):

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

[°Leprechaun]

As far as projections go, it is one thing to look at the numbers overall for the US and perhaps things could get better overall in the next month or two.

It is another thing to look at it state by state. Certain states are going to peak early than others, and I think that the worst states look like they will see a decline eventually. It is the states with few cases that could be the ones that will peak much later than the other ones.

All this depends on what people do and how willing they are to stay home and stay the course.
It isn't going to be easy.

[Del Tachi]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

New York added a bunch of "probable" deaths/cases backdating all the way back to March 11.  Extremely questionable stuff.  We don't even attempt to count deaths from other respiratory diseases with such a level of precision. 

From the article you quoted:

People whose death certificates don’t mention the virus still are not counted. From March 11 through April 13, 8,184 city residents died of causes not classified as confirmed or probable coronavirus.

I think that's a factual misrepresentation on the part of Poltico (wouldn't be the first time).  From the press release from NYC Department of Health:

A death is classified as probable if the decedent was a New York City resident (NYC resident or residency pending) who had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent.

Key phrase being "or an equivalent".  What's an equivalent?  Are all pneumonia deaths from March 11 forward now being counting as COVID-19?  No answer from NYC Health there. 

Do you have any methodological basis for questioning these results or is this more of your wishful thinking/motivated skepticism?

Anytime you have a disease that primarily effects older people with severe comorbidities, its more difficult to determine a singular cause of death.  If an 87-year old with CHF develops rapid-onset pneumonia and dies in the hospital, should it get counted as COVID-19?  Different countries have varying (yet reasonable) standards for who gets counted and who doesn't, which is one reason why death counts in a country like Germany are so low.     

[Grassroots]

As far as projections go, it is one thing to look at the numbers overall for the US and perhaps things could get better overall in the next month or two.

It is another thing to look at it state by state. Certain states are going to peak early than others, and I think that the worst states look like they will see a decline eventually. It is the states with few cases that could be the ones that will peak much later than the other ones.

All this depends on what people do and how willing they are to stay home and stay the course.
It isn't going to be easy.

They are already getting better, and multiple states have not only peaked out but have gone to Spain levels of recovery.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Protesters in Michigan have Trump flags and Confederate flags. Suffice to say, this protest is really NOT about Whitmer, is it.

https://twitter.com/tburages/status/1250490683938521093

What is especially disheartening about these protests is the complete lack of will for political activism on the progressive side.  

There should be a million people marching on Washington right now demanding universal testing.  I would totally participate in this even at the risk of personal exposure.  

Why do progressives just want to curl up into a ball right now and fruitlessly hope that Trump magically transforms into a different person rather than actually doing something to stop him?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

New York added a bunch of "probable" deaths/cases backdating all the way back to March 11.  Extremely questionable stuff.  We don't even attempt to count deaths from other respiratory diseases with such a level of precision. 

From the article you quoted:

People whose death certificates don’t mention the virus still are not counted. From March 11 through April 13, 8,184 city residents died of causes not classified as confirmed or probable coronavirus.

I think that's a factual misrepresentation on the part of Poltico (wouldn't be the first time).  From the press release from NYC Department of Health:

A death is classified as probable if the decedent was a New York City resident (NYC resident or residency pending) who had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent.

Key phrase being "or an equivalent".  What's an equivalent?  Are all pneumonia deaths from March 11 forward now being counting as COVID-19?  No answer from NYC Health there. 

Do you have any methodological basis for questioning these results or is this more of your wishful thinking/motivated skepticism?

Anytime you have a disease that primarily effects older people with severe comorbidities, its more difficult to determine a singular cause of death.  If an 87-year old with CHF develops rapid-onset pneumonia and dies in the hospital, should it get counted as COVID-19?  Different countries have varying (yet reasonable) standards for who gets counted and who doesn't, which is one reason why death counts in a country like Germany are so low.     

Individual causes of death may be difficult to precisely and accurately identify. But looking at overall statistics, large spikes in number of deaths are pretty obvious, and you can get close to the deaths causes by the pandemic by taking total actual deaths and subtracting expected deaths (based on prior years' statistics).

[°Leprechaun]

"...a million people marching on Washington right now demanding universal testing.."

really? That would be a disaster, I don't think that they would even be able to stay six feet apart from each other.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/gdinwiddie/status/1250130371242582016

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What is especially disheartening about these protests is the complete lack of will for political activism on the progressive side.  

There should be a million people marching on Washington right now demanding universal testing.  I would totally participate in this even at the risk of personal exposure.  

Why do progressives just want to curl up into a ball right now and fruitlessly hope that Trump magically transforms into a different person rather than actually doing something to stop him?

I wouldn't risk personal exposure, but something has to be done.

We need tests for people actively infected, antibody tests, and an end to lockdowns. The situation has gotten way out of hand, and all we get is talk and no action.

I remember back around 2012 there was some app called Clapper or something like that which would send out a huge message from many people all at once to demand stuff like this. I don't know if this is still around.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Anyone know why new cases in New York went up by so much today? Outside of New York, new cases in the U.S. dropped.

New York added a bunch of "probable" deaths/cases backdating all the way back to March 11.  Extremely questionable stuff.  We don't even attempt to count deaths from other respiratory diseases with such a level of precision.  

From the article you quoted:

People whose death certificates don’t mention the virus still are not counted. From March 11 through April 13, 8,184 city residents died of causes not classified as confirmed or probable coronavirus.

I think that's a factual misrepresentation on the part of Poltico (wouldn't be the first time).  From the press release from NYC Department of Health:

A death is classified as probable if the decedent was a New York City resident (NYC resident or residency pending) who had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent.

Key phrase being "or an equivalent".  What's an equivalent?  Are all pneumonia deaths from March 11 forward now being counting as COVID-19?  No answer from NYC Health there.  

Do you have any methodological basis for questioning these results or is this more of your wishful thinking/motivated skepticism?

Anytime you have a disease that primarily effects older people with severe comorbidities, its more difficult to determine a singular cause of death.  If an 87-year old with CHF develops rapid-onset pneumonia and dies in the hospital, should it get counted as COVID-19?  Different countries have varying (yet reasonable) standards for who gets counted and who doesn't, which is one reason why death counts in a country like Germany are so low.    

In what universe is a person with an underlying condition that is exacerbated by contracting COVID-19 not a death attributable to COVID? Trying to determine a singular cause of death is needlessly narrow and no serious public health expert thinks this way. Good lord are you tying yourself into knots to downplay this.

Even still, it's pretty obvious that since mid-March there's a large spike of otherwise-unattributed respiratory deaths, particularly in NYC, relative to March in other years. That's undeniable. The reason we don't have the ability to confirm they are related to COVID is due to testing shortages, not due to any contrary evidence. Probabalistically, with such a high frequency of confirmed COVID deaths, the vast majority of unexplained deaths is going to be due to this COVID. We obviously have no way of knowing the exact number with a shortage of tests but it's likely much more accurate to include these numbers than to ignore them.

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1250042805021532162